Mega-Cap Dominance and Sector-Specific Recovery - What to watch w/ Paul Kornfeld, SIACharts
Release Date: 09/12/2023
Aubrey Basdeo: More Coupon, Less Duration
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
In this episode, our conversation with Aubrey Basdeo, Head of Fixed Income at Guardian Capital LP, we focus on the fixed income landscape and the outlook for interest rates in the US and Canada, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation and interest rate cuts, as well as the differences between the US and Canadian economies, the impact of mortgage rates on consumer spending and the potential for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Overall, the conversation highlights the importance of maximizing optionality
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Doomberg Decodes: Pumpamentals, Market Riddles, Energy, Gold/China, Uranium & Canada
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
In this conversation, Doomberg (https://doomberg.substack.com/) joins Pierre and Mike to discuss various topics including Bitcoin, the parallel between Michael Saylor and Hugo Stinnes, speculative mania, the parallels in the borrowing strategy of Hugo Stinnes and Michael Saylor, pumpamentals driving distortions in the market and the flywheel effect, the geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the dangers of do-gooders and climate newspeak, and t
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Bill Bamber, BMO GAM CEO: "A generational shift in accessing structured investment payoffs"
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
This is one of the trickiest times in investing history marked by heightened uncertainty, distorted valuations, regime change and increased volatility in both equity and bond markets. For good reason, advisors have increasingly turned to shifting parts of the portfolios they manage away from traditional equity and bond assets in return for exposure to structured note and investment strategies that provide structured investing outcomes from those same asset categories.
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Vanguard's Mario Cianfarani: Three Challenges for 2024
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
This episode with guest Mario Cianfarani, Head of Distribution at Vanguard Canada kicks off delving into 2024's First Challenge: Bond yields and the importance of re-positioning cash for the long term given the likelihood of central banks shifting towards rate cuts in 2024.
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Fidelity's Ilan Kolet – 11 Questions for 2024
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio manager in Fidelity's Global Asset Allocation Team, joins us to discuss the most important questions he and his team mates, David Wolf and David Tulk have been fielding at the start of 2024. We delve into the unexpected shifts in monetary policy led by the Federal Reserve and mull over the repercussions of potential rate cuts on inflation volatility, weaving through the intricacies of the Fed's data-driven stance and 'pivot' toward a less restrictive monetary environment.
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John De Goey - Investing ahead of unknown market risks
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
John De Goey, Portfolio Manager and Investment Advisor at Designed Wealth Management joins us to discuss and explore the current investment landscape and the choices available to investors. He highlights the importance of managing risk and staying on the short end of the yield curve, for time being where fixed income is concerned. We also delve into the topics of optimism and pessimism, with a focus on the potential challenges and uncertainties in the market. We talk about the shifts in real estate markets,
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Fidelity's Ilan Kolet: 2024 Macro and Investment Outlook
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
Join us for this enlightening conversation with Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation Team, at Fidelity Investments, as we delve into the economic outlook for 2024. Kolet provides invaluable insight into the Canadian and US economies, the housing market, investment strategies, and inflation protection. We explore the impact of interest rates, consumer spending, and central bank policies on investments. Kolet's expe
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Dino Bourdos: Is the yield on your covered call fund too good?
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
In this insightful discussion, Dino Bourdos, Portfolio Manager & Head of Investment Solutions at Guardian Capital LP delves into the intricacies of investment strategies, particularly focusing on the use of derivatives, covered call strategies, and the impact of market dynamics on investment decisions. With his extensive experience in the field, Bourdos offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities in the current economic landscape, making this a must-watch for investors and financial p
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Deep Dive into Global Economic and Market Outlook, and AI's Role with Joaquin Kritz Lara
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
Join us in conversation with Joaquin Kritz Lara, Chief Economist at Numera Analytics, as we explore the intricate world of global economics and financial markets. Hosted by Pierre Daillie and Richard Laterman, the discussion delves into the nuances of macroeconometrics, the dynamics of inflation, and the complexities of investment strategies in today's volatile market.
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Michael Robbins: Ever seen a bad backtest?
Insight is Capital™ Podcast
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Paul Kornfeld, President at SIACharts joins us for an comprehensive update featuring SIACharts' insights - we talked about relative strength rankings and how they can guide your investment decisions globally. Small-cap stocks in the US may be lower ranked compared to their large-cap counterparts, but Canadian small-cap stocks are showing promise. We also discussed the movement in energy markets – they've been on the decline but set for gains, while alternatives have been gaining momentum. And fixed income? While it hasn't shown much improvement, it's waiting for that bounce back when interest rates start dropping. Stay away from underperforming areas, follow the analysis, and keep an eye out for sector opportunities in Canada and the US. And, we even explored potential investment opportunities in Mexico, and India. These countries are aligning with western interests, less vulnerable to China's influence, and have charts showing clear breakouts.
Timestamped Highlights:
[00:03:24] We discuss discuss market performance, interest rates, inflation.
[00:10:48] Market recovering, room for growth, market breadth.
[00:15:17] Mega-cap tech stocks dominate market returns. Breath problem persists. Financial recovery underway. Transportation sector improves. Sector flows signal concerns. July historically positive, but caution for August-September.
[00:26:48] Seasonality varies across different market areas. Building an ensemble of indicators is important. Market could be overbought and a bit exuberant. Consider tightening risk levels and taking profits. Summer seasonality may present challenges.
[00:30:02] Expectations for Q4 earnings are changing, with certain sectors predicted to have higher earnings. Information technology remains strong, while utilities have surprisingly high expectations.
[00:36:00] Stocks lagging, utilities messy, no clear trends
[00:44:11] Rankings show US outperforming Canada due to sector composition.
[00:46:50] Global, Europe, international, US Small Cap, Canadian Small Cap, energy markets, alternatives, North American Equity, emerging markets, fixed income, bond valuations, underperformance, sector analysis
[00:53:07] Real estate market booming in Calgary.
[00:56:58] Price expected to pause at resistance level. Support at 125. Potential move down 1%. Resistance at 139. Range between 128 to 138. Short-term outlook weakened. Not bullish for USD.
[01:03:10] US has performed well, Nasdaq has potential.
[01:09:15] Point figure chart eliminates short-term noise. Candlestick chart has more noise. Point figure chart shows value in different time periods. Visuals help identify upside and levels. Long-term view is important. Russell 2000 chart is noisier with a smaller range.
[01:13:06] International markets have potential, particularly Argentina, Mexico, and India. Emerging markets may catch up with developed markets.
[01:20:33] Security mindset challenges, breakout opportunities, orderly uptrend. Reassuring narrative: supply chain shift to aligned countries. Risk management and accumulation strategies. Pay attention to new highs in portfolio.
[01:36:42] Summarizing the text in 6 words: Simplified commodity strategy with low volatility.
[01:40:41] Increased dispersion across asset classes creates opportunities.
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Where to find Paul Kornfeld and SIACharts:
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Where to find the Raise Your Average crew:
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