5-31-24 Should You Borrow Against Your 401k?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With weaker economic data trickling in, are Fed rate cuts coming sooner than later? What's the deal with 401k's? The best way to take money out of a 401k; executing an "in-service rollover;" tax implications and fund seasoning details you need to know; remember fees and expense ratios. What about Roth's: pre-tax funds & retirement; making too much money? Dealing with shifts in RMD's: The government wants its revenue sooner than later. Dealing with hardship withdrawals; what is and isn't exempted. The folly of borrowing against a 401k (Hint: Don't do it!) What about collateralizing 401k...
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5-30-24 How to Benefit from the Coming Power Grid Expansion
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Houston is finally #1 in something: Home Foreclosures; Q1 economic data suggests conflict with narrative the economy is doing fine vs anecdotal evidence. The Fed's Beige Book summary shows not as much concern for inflation as for weakening consumer demand. Weaker stock pricing is also emerging; Can markets hold the 20-DMA? Risk assets are momentum-based trade (Bitcoin); also beginning to weaken. Hedge funds are long semiconductors and AI-related stocks: the AI theme seems to be narrowing. The difference between the Dot-com bubble and AI companies is that AI is making money. What will be the...
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5-30-24 Is Weaker Pricing Ahead?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P really hasn't gone anywhere, just consolidating over the past two weeks. We think markets will crack and trigger a MACD Sell Signal, suggesting weaker pricing is on the way. The question today will be whether the market can hold the 20-DMA. Bitcoin is beginning to weaken, also ready to trigger a sell signal; Ethereum just got a big pop in anticipation of its ETF approval by the SEC. It is starting to roll over, as well, in a prelude to triggering a sell signal. Crude oil has already had a correction, and is bottoming now, and may be coming into a buy signal. All of these signs...
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5-29-24 Corporate Greed is Not the Cause of Inflation
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's all about the Fed, never mind the fundamentals. markets have gone essentially nowhere, driven almost entirely by Nvidia. Markets are close to a short-term sell signal. It's time to rebalance portfolios. Corporate Greed does not cause inflation: The simple truth. 401k rollowver problems; why few receiving required 402(f) notifications; the tax implications of rollovers. If you've lost a 401k, Beagle.com may be able to help you find it. Why compounding doesn't work in the market; creditor protection for retirement funds. Hampton Inn merch: Waffle socks & fanny packs; Buc-Cee's, Cracker...
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5-29-24 Time to Rebalance Portfolios with NVIDIA
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have been doing well of late, thanks in part to the excellent performance of Nvidia, the one stalwart of the AI semiconductor chase. The stock was up another 8% Tuesday as the whole AI idea continues to permeate the market. Nvidia is now larger than Tesla, IBM, and about eight other companies, all combined, with a market cap now at $2.7-Trillion. You can buy Amazon stock and still have money left over. Nvidia stock is pretty overbought; so if you have not yet done so, a rebalancing of your portfolio now would be a good idea. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts,...
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5-24-24 What If I Get Named Executor of an Estate?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets falter; Nvidia and Cracker Barrel keeping up with the times; the Fed's impact on Markets: Could rates actually go back up? How spending habits are shifting; the need for a Sell Discipline when bad news is good news. Caution against investing emotionally because of politics. What happens when you're the executor: Business decisions vs family/emotional issues. The Graceland financial fiasco: An executor's nightmare. How many generations does wealth last? How Elvis got Graceland. SEG-1: What Nvidia & Cracker Barrel Have in Common SEG-2: THe Need for a Sell Discipline When Bad News is...
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5-23-24 Who Will Profit Most from the Next Tech Boom?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off on release of the latest FOMC Meeting minutes, which are a sanitized, finely-crafted version of what went on behind closed doors. The hawkishness seems to be continuing; Deflation seems to be a bigger risk to the economy than inflation. There's too little demand, resulting in price cuts to move inventory. Insight on why we reduced our stake in Nvidia before its report was released, which attests to the growth potential of AI buildouts. One cloud on the horizon: Wall Street's ever-optimistic expectations for continued growth. How does innovation impact the economy, and who will...
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5-23-24 The Risk-Reward in NVIDIA
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Why did we trim our holdings in NVIDIA before its earnings report release? The answer lies in our Daily Market Commentary. Basically, when it becomes over bought, we trim a little, and when it pulls back, we buy some more at a lower price. We balanced out position and took our portfolio back to target weight. What we've seen this earnings season is companies coming out with stellar earnings reports, but not commensurately rewarded for those results. But if they miss, or guidance just in-line, a stock can lose 10-20% for the day. A look at NVIDIA's risk range indicated it was time to trim and...
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5-22-24 Why the Dot-Com Crash Feels Like a Distant Memory to Modern Investors
The Real Investment Show Podcast
All eyes are on NVDIA's quarterly report: Why did we trim our position? How might this company disappoint investors? It's all about the guidance. FOMC Meeting Minutes also could trigger markets, based on what they reveal about the Fed's interest rate intentions. Markets are at all-time highs, trading in a tighter range. Markets have gone 315-days without a 2% correction; we think they're primed for a pullback. Lance's wife is home; hilarity ensues. Millennials' 'quiet vacation' ploys. Is recession coming? Most investors and economists think not. (We are still within the window of opportunity...
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5-22-24 Will markets Correct back to the 20-DMA?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The market is sitting at all-time highs, but trading over the last five days has been in a very tight range. Price gains at this point are going to be hard to come by when markets are as overbought as they are now. Today's market movement will be triggered by either the FOMC Meeting minutes release or NVDIA's quarterly report...or both. There's a reasonable risk for a short-term correction back to the 20-DMA, worth about 2%. Remember, we have not had a 2% down day in over 315-days. Any kind of disappointment from the aforementioned news events could spark a sell-off. But any good news is going...
info_outlineBonds rallied, Stocks rallied, and Gold rallied all across the board, thanks to a weaker than expected CPI Print which suggested the Fed will cut rates at least two times this year. It was a risk-on day. Markets closed the day at their highs; they are extremely over bought at this point, and that would infer that some type of corrective action is in the offing. (Markets are also very deviated from normal ranges of their moving averages.) Remember, in order to have a moving average, you have to have trading above AND below that average over a period of time. Big deviations lead to a re-test of support. A re-test of the 50-DMA would create an opportunity to work off some of this over bought condition, and also to add some exposure. Bad news is good news for the markets because it means the Fed is more likely to cut rates. Overall, there is a bullish bias to the markets; we are going to have some corrective action, however, and that will provide oppoprtunity.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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