5-16-24 It's a Mistake to Be Entirely Out of Equities
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 05/16/2024
6-14-24 Dealing With the "Squishy" Side of Retirement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Parsing the economic data; Bonds vs ETF's; how bond pries and interest rates move; couting on the income. Danny & Jonathan address YouTube chatroom questions on Bond Yields and Buy/Sell dynamics; Dialing for Petro Dollars: A discussion of the US Dollar's strength, and whether it will still be the world's reserve currency in the future. Four good reasons to keep the Dollar. Transitioning into retirement, from accumulator to distributor, and dealing with the "squishy" side of retirement; finding purpose; activities together vs alone; planning spending allocations. The Dead Air...
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6-13-24 Federal Reserve and BLS Labor Data Discrepancies Explored
The Real Investment Show Podcast
June is half-over, and the stock buy back blackout begins today, removing that source of activity from the market. Economic data points continue to weaken, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to see "more good data." There is an alternative universe of debt; the Fed wants weaker economy so they can lower rates. The S&P 500 sets another new, all-time high; Apple, Miscrosoft, & Nvidia are driving the market. There is an ever-widening performance gap between the S&P 500 and everyone else. Mrs. Roberts' Roomba and an FOMC Meeting recap; the economy is "normalizing." Jerome Powell's...
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6-13-24 Market Deviation from 50-DMA is Extreme
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P set an all-time high following Wednesday's softer inflation report. Ironically, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were the primary market drivers for the day. This continues to be a very lop-sided market; the deviation from the 50-DMA is getting pretty extreme again. Outside the S&P, the equal-weighted index is underperforming, and that gap is widening. 40% of the Russell 2000, for example, is non-profitable companies. There's a very big difference between what's happening in the S&P and the rest of the non-weighted world. Small- and Mid-cap companies are even more sensitive to...
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6-12-24 Managing Risk and Return with Individual Treasury Bonds
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Fed Day and Inflation Day: The FOMC meeting commences, and inflation in May cooled a bit. What will the Fed's Dot Plot show? Rate cut expectations are down to just two for this year, and likely not occuring until after the election. How will the Fed loosen QT? Markets set another all time high, marginally. The rally-restest-rally pattern continues. Apple was the big driver on Tuesday with the heralding of "Apple Intelligence." We answer viewers' questions about owning Bonds vs Treasuries vs ETF's. The saga of predictions, swimming in oil, and uranium's leap ahead of its reality. Our...
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6-12-24 Is Now the Time to Buy Apple?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets set another all-time high Tuesday, albeit marginal, despite the trumpeting headlines, and trading negatively for most of the morning. We're now seeing institutions coming in to buy during late afternoon trading, lending bullish credence to the market. Traders are tracking right along the 20-DMA, as we saw in January and February, rebuilding the same pattern of rally-retest-rally. The big driver was Apple, with the advent of their "Apple Intelligence." A brilliant marketing move (pssst - it's still AI.) After nearly a year of not pulling its weight in the Magnificent Severn, Apple is...
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6-11-24 How the 60/40 Investment Strategy Works for You
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are essentially in stasis until after tomorrow's conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Market enthusiasm is similar to that seen in 2000, but there are a few differences this time around. Will Apple AI tailor a better product for users; can AI actually deliver? Crude Oil in a MACD buy signal from very low levels: Time to buy? How Generation-Z is making blue collar jobs cool; implications of power demands for AI and requirements for building out power grid to meet AI demand. Is it time to re-think the 60/40 portfolio? The finite value of bonds vs equity market risk. You can always adjust...
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6-11-24 Is Now the Time to Buy Crude Oil?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are essentially on hold for the next 48-hours until we get through the FOMC meeting starting today; results will be announced tomorrow. Markets are overly sensitive to rate moves and want to know when and how much the Fed will cut. Markets could move up or down, sharply, based on the Fed's announcement tomorrow. Meanwhile, speculative bets on Crude Oil have gotten extremely negative. A lot of traders are long on Crude Oil, which has been very quietly moving up, and has now triggered a MACD buy signal from a very low level. This should give oil stocks a bit of a lift. Hosted by RIA...
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6-10-24 Rising Unemployment Rate: A Possible Recession Indicator?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Employment Report Headlines are stronger than the underlying data shows; economic activity is slowing, but markets remain upbeat. Markets have been quiet; complacency can lead to unexpected things. Markets tested 20-DMA and rallied; will re-test that level today...again. FOMC Meeting this week + CPI Inflation data could trigger a change: Markets' performance has been predicated on Fed rate cuts. How we get the employment numbers: Data vs surveys. The gap between households and BLS is growing; something is wrong with the adjustments. Why $20/hr minimum wage isn't working. Look at wages vs total...
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6-10-24 Will the Fed Reverse Quantitative Tightening?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Futures are pointing lower this morning, which is no surprise. After a multi-weeks' long run in the markets, investors today will likely re-test the 20-DMA in a repeat performance of market activity we saw back in November thru February. The current environment could run from July through August, migrating higher without any catalyst. This week's FOMC Meeting and CPI Inflation data could turn markets sharply lower, because the market is predicated on the Fed cutting rates. We're expecting the Fed to maintain the status quo of staying on track to cut rates later in the year, and a reversal of...
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6-7-24 How to Maximize Your Severance Package
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The D stands for Donuts: It's International Donut Day; Buc-Cee's Donuts & Jerky; Can a Texas Stock Exchange survive? JR weighs in. NYC's economic suicide; the Roaring Kitty live-stream; Candid Coffee returns (6/29); AI stocks & narrative economics: Will AI not be the savior we'd hoped? How to maximize your severance package; when a layoff is a blessing in disguise. Goldfish & dietary habits; Severance package strategies: Maximizing HSA's; lumps-sum or annutize? Model it out. SEG-1: National Donut Day, Nvidia Split, Jobs Report Preview SEG-2: NYSE vs Texas Stock Exchange & Civil...
info_outlineMarkets hit all-time highs with softer CPI: The biggest contributor was decline in Homeowners' Equivalent Rent. Markets are now anticipating two rate cuts this year. Consumers are showing signs of weakening; hardest hit are Gen-Z & Millennials. Stocks & Bonds rally on weaker CPI; markets are extremely over bought. Look for a re-test of the 50-DMA with market corrective action anticipated. WalMart has decent earnings; consumer spending is what drives the economy. Quality of Employment numbers matter: Full Time vs Part Time Jobs; Why the Government's Employment formula is bogus. How we calculate Inflation now (also bogus). The Risk is never zero. Answering emails: When will the market crash? Being out of the market; more money is lost trying to avoid a crash than is lost during a crash. Market Correction is coming, Debt .will eventually matter (but we'll all be dead by then), a la Japan. Leanring from mistakes getting out of the market. The perils of sitting in cash: Find the other bull market. It's a mistake to be entirely out of equities. The markets' bullish trend has not been broken since March 2009.
SEG-1: Markets' Rally on Softer CPI
SEG-2: The Risk is Never Zero
Seg-3: Debt Will Eventually Matter (but we'll all be dead by then)
SEG-4: Market Mistakes Learned the Hard Way
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWeHX8ZXVQM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Stimulus Today Costs Dearly Tomorrow"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stimulus-today-costs-dearly-tomorrow/
"Moving Average Crossovers Suggest The Bull Is Back"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/moving-average-crossovers-suggest-the-bull-is-back/
"Equities Bounce Back Ending The April Correction"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Bad Market News is Good News" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv5Lxty8B_k&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "WIll Bitcion Rise to $420,000?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldxIgLe-YuQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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