On China: To Win or Not To Win
Net Assessment
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher’s recent article about U.S. strategy toward China. They disagree about the Biden administration’s approach and whether the United States needs a final objective. Melanie questions those expressing condolences for the “Butcher of Tehran,” Chris cautions against a major security deal with Saudi Arabia, and Zack commends Tsai Ing-wen on eight years of steady leadership on cross-Strait issues.
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Debating the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Net Assessment
With American military and economic help on the way to Kyiv, Chris, Zack and Melanie discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war. Will the new American aid package make a difference in the outcome of the conflict? What should be Ukraine’s strategy going forward? What, if anything, can Ukraine and its partners realistically do to get Russia to make meaningful concessions at the negotiating table? Chris has a very proud attaboy for his son who is graduating from college and moving into the real world, Zack questions the effectiveness of a protest in Washington, D.C., and Melanie criticizes Greenpeace for...
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Countering Foreign Media Manipulation. Or Not.
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Gavin Wilde’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review on foreign media manipulation. How vulnerable are citizens of democracies to manipulation through social media? Is a more open and less hierarchical media space a national security threat? And what, if anything, should policymakers in democracies do about this issue? Grievances for China blocking popular apps, Marjorie Taylor Green for her shenanigans surrounding the foreign aid vote, and to the F-35, the gift that keeps on giving (to the tune of $2 trillion); Attas for Samuel Charap and...
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America's Report Card in Southeast Asia
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington. .
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The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, created by the U.S. intelligence agencies. The report focuses on state actors and transnational issues that could be challenges to the United States in the coming year. What major threats does the United States face in the next year? What are we too worried about? What should we be concerned about that we aren’t paying attention to? With so many challenges, where should our focus be? Zack congratulates contributors to the new BlueBlaze newsletter, Chris commends the Veterans Studies Association, and Melanie...
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Competing for Influence in Latin America
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie and Zack take a close look at the United States’ relationship with countries in Latin America. Why has the United States neglected Latin America in the last several decades? Should the United States government up its game in order to compete for influence with China in its own hemisphere? And, if so, how? And will improving U.S. ties in the region help to alleviate the immigration situation on the southern border? Grievances for Donald Trump's love for TikTok, Americans ignoring Haiti, and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who can't get along. Attas to Sen Roger Wicker for...
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Are the U.S. and Europe Never Ever Getting Back Together?
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss an article on the concept of unbalanced multipolarity by Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper. They debate what might happen if the United States pulls back from its leadership role in Europe and the rest of the world. Would America’s absence lead to global or regional disorder? Would allies step up to take some of the burden off Washington? Or would competing regional blocs emerge? Melanie laments the lack of progress on funding the Compacts of Free Association, Chris criticizes a publication decision by the New York Times, and Zack questions JD Vance’s approach...
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Debating the New National Defense Industrial Strategy
Net Assessment
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to talk about the new National Defense Industrial Strategy. Is this document really a strategy? What are the biggest problems we need to fix with respect to our defense industrial base? Considering the state of where we are now, is it even possible to get our industrial house in order in the near term to deter or prevail in a conflict with an adversary? Chris has a grievance for those who couldn’t believe Donald Trump’s recent NATO comments (where have they been for the last eight years?), Zack thanks Rep. Mike Gallagher for his service, and Melanie is...
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Rating the Top Threats to U.S. National Security
Net Assessment
Chris, Melanie and Zack review the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual which asked foreign policy experts to rank 30 current and possible future conflicts relative to their likelihood and impact on U.S. national interests. The leading threat, according to these experts, was of political violence or domestic terrorism in the United States associated with the 2024 presidential election. Other leading threats were the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East arising out of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and of continued migration from Central America and Mexico. The three...
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Global Disorder and Houthi Strikes
Net Assessment
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate whether the international order is fraying and if so, what to do about it. They focus in particular on the recent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and discuss how the United States should respond. Melanie questions Liz Truss's support of expedited defense exports to China and Chris laments the lack of communication around Lloyd Austin's delegation of authority while Zack makes Chris a job offer he can refuse.
info_outlineChris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Richard Fontaine's recent Foreign Affairs article on prioritizing national security threats. Why is it so hard for those in charge of the nation’s security to pick and stick to the most important national security priorities? How should the United States determine where scarce resources are allocated? If China is the nation’s main challenge, can the United States continue to expend resources at the current rate in Ukraine?
Chris is concerned about people who are hoping a new civil war starts in Afghanistan, Zack is dismayed at those insisting that the United States openly side with those in China protesting the government’s lockdown and other policies, and Melanie has an attaboy for Dr. John Hamre, recipient of the Reagan Foundation’s Peace Through Strength award.
This episode's reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/making-hard-national-security-choices