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The Deal: Promo

Arms Control Wonk

Release Date: 09/07/2020

Stealing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant show art Stealing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Arms Control Wonk

What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to....steal a power plant? Links of Note: , Cheryl Rofer   Support us over at !

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Rules for Testing a Nuke show art Rules for Testing a Nuke

Arms Control Wonk

Why isn't North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test?  Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House Rule... The team talks about the impact of Michael Krepon on the field and on us personally. He will be greatly missed, and his importance and mentorship in the field of arms control cannot be understated.  Support us over at !

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The Last Days of the JCPOA show art The Last Days of the JCPOA

Arms Control Wonk

As the President visited various states in the Middle East, Jeffrey and Aaron sat down to eulogize the JCPOA renegotiation attempts as they slowly slide farther off the rails. Iran's programs continue and it looks like the U.S. is preparing to continue into the sanctions and containment realm, as Israel continues its seemingly ineffective hardware sabotage campaign. The North Korea-ification of Iran-US relations continues, unabated.   Support us over at !

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The Wizards of Armageddon show art The Wizards of Armageddon

Arms Control Wonk

Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events.  Support us over at !

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Waiting for the Boom show art Waiting for the Boom

Arms Control Wonk

After a brief hiatus due to Jeffrey's house catching on a lil' bit of fire, the Arms Control Wonk team is back to take a look at North Korea's triple missile launch and looming possible nuclear test.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the North Korean nuclear testing schedule, the expectations of precision that open source intelligence has generated, and what it means when half of the attendees at a nuclear conference all simultaneously leave... Support us over at !

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American ASAT Controls show art American ASAT Controls

Arms Control Wonk

The U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of the institutional hurdles the U.S. must overcome for a long-lasting commitment to space-based arms control. Support us over at !

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Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century show art Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century

Arms Control Wonk

and join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: The group sits down to talk through China's DF-21D and DF-26 missiles. Do they work? What do they do? What can they actually accomplish? How do navies adapt to the new threat environment?  The group talks through the realities and the puffed up hype around these systems, and how they actually impact strategy and naval operations. Support us over at !

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Test Three Missiles... show art Test Three Missiles...

Arms Control Wonk

...get a pod.  North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests.  Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good OSINT in the form of Jeffrey's talented class of missile modelers.  Jeffrey also predicts a Hwasong-17 test is coming, and as this episode is being published, he is proven right.  Next episode: North Korean Test Bingo...

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The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence show art The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence

Arms Control Wonk

Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics.  Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence, wherein an individual actor's rationality can be gauged by the company they keep.  Support us over at !

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Deterrence in Ukraine show art Deterrence in Ukraine

Arms Control Wonk

Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could've deterred Russia "if it had never given up nuclear weapons." But they never "had" nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the Cold War, and the "return" of those weapons to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Support us over at !

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More Episodes

The Deal: The story of the Iran nuclear deal; how it came together, how it fell apart, and what that means for the rest of us.

Hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. 

You can find The Deal on Apple Podcasts or your preferred podcast platform.