Tech Policy and Unintended Consequences
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Release Date: 08/17/2021
Life Sciences: The Real, the Hoped, and the Hyped
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Drug development platforms such as mRNA, CRISPR, and gene therapies combined with cost-effective development are creating spectacular economic opportunities.
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Noise and Unpredictability
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Inflation fears, currency tremors, market jitters, and emotional vacillation causing joy and terror because all these outcomes seem equally likely. No realistic gauge is showing reliable directions for key metrics. Near-term data usually predicts the near-term future, and that usually gives us a reasonable sense of comfort about the markets, and how to plan, prepare, predict, and withstand anticipated market moves. But that is not the case now.
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Ptolemy, Galileo, and Financial Markets
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Supply and demand aren't supposed to impact stock prices. Asset-pricing theory says prices in financial markets are determined by expected future cash flows rather than buying and selling dynamics. Therefore, stocks and bonds are mostly immune from supply and demand determining prices. This is nonsense.
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Tech Policy and Unintended Consequences
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Technology is facing China’s crackdown, rising resistance to social media, and government control.
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Important and Unknowable
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
It is impossible to know the answer. This critically important metric is not knowable. There is an intelligent argument on both sides, but there is no way of knowing the outcome of the inputs we have seen over the last 16 months. So perhaps the best advice, to quote Charles Bukowski, is "don't try."
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Digital Assets, the Environment, and Green Energy
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Digital currencies, crypto assets, digitized securities, and distributed ledgers require an enormous amount of power. While the combination of these assets is subject to tremendous hype, the environmental impact has been mostly ignored. However, this is changing because there has been increasing alarm about crypto’s carbon footprint and environmental impact.
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Digital Assets, Distributed Ledgers, and the Future of Capital Markets
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Distributed ledger technology (Blockchain) and digital assets have the potential to dramatically disrupt global equity and debt markets. This will decentralize critical data and enable an entirely new financial system where capital flows without the need for traditional intermediaries. It is an irreversible disruptive force transforming capital markets and the global financial system.
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The 6,000 Year Bubble
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Gold is built on a collective belief in its value. There is nothing fundamentally "inherent" other than an agreed-upon value. The same is true with Bitcoin and all asset prices.
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Being Digital
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
Unprecedented disruption was unleashed when globalized infrastructure could instantly deliver all products and services via a worldwide digital infrastructure and network.
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Digital Assets - Terror and Opportunity
Investment Principles and Strategies' podcast
A trading floor in every pocket looking for disruptive investment opportunities charging forward with an out-of-control abandon toward cryptocurrency. This is a sideshow to the most important development. It's decentralized finance, a powerful emerging force in global finance.
info_outlineTechnology is facing policy changes with global resonance, such as China’s new crackdown, the rising resistance to social media, and government's desire to manage and control technological development.
"I’ll build a wall and we will be fine behind it.” This did not work for China’s First Emperor, and it will not work for its current one.
The tech crackdown, regardless of any good intentions, will bring disastrous consequences. Regardless of any good intentions, this will add friction, inefficiency, and underperformance to the most dynamic global industry. The best intentions usually bring disastrous consequences.