#93 - Housing Navigating Through High Interest Rates
Daybreak with Anton
The reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy.
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#92 - Rebound in Retail Sales
Daybreak with Anton
Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply: People working = people spending = economic activity In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy.
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#91 - More Good News.... Darn
Daybreak with Anton
The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.
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#90 - Movement of Money
Daybreak with Anton
One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Listen to this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released...
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#89 - Housing and the Stock Market
Daybreak with Anton
The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market.
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#88 - When Will Small Businesses Join the Party?
Daybreak with Anton
Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs, the small business sector seems to be missing the party all together. For several years we have been writing about the lagging S&P 600 Small Cap Index to its peers of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and S&P 400 Mid Cap Indices. Today we review the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) release yesterday that indicated the 26th consecutive month the small business optimism index is below its 50-year average. Listen in this issue why small business owners have not been this...
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#87 - Will It Be Another Deja Vu Wild Ride of Hyper Inflation and Interest Rates
Daybreak with Anton
A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and “High Cost of Living/Inflation”. In this Weekly Brief we review events of the 1960’s that led to historic hyperinflation of the 1970’s and what we can learn from this era. Most importantly, what were the risks and opportunities during the wild rides of these decades.
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#86 - Consumer Confidence Improving
Daybreak with Anton
Today the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February 2024. We need to monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us potential insight to the future of consumer spending which represents 66% of the nation’s financial activity as referenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means and our view of the stock market.
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#85 - What Happen to the Recession?
Daybreak with Anton
This week's podcast dives into the disconnect between media-driven recession fears and the actual economic growth seen despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Contrary to dire predictions, the economy expanded, with significant stock market rallies and low unemployment rates defying expectations. We'll discuss the repercussions of basing investment strategies on speculative media narratives and highlight the stability and growth in consumer-focused economic indicators. The episode concludes with our optimistic outlook for 2024, adjusting investment strategies while reflecting on...
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#84 - The Changing American Population
Daybreak with Anton
This year there are more people turning 65-year-old in America than in any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78 and they are turning the age of 65 at a rate of 11,300 per day. Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means for the American society and economy?
info_outlineMixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992. However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers. A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders. No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising interest rates and prices and implementing precautions should the US economy slow faster than projected. All this to say, is the most anticipated recession forecasted for 2023 indicates a low bar of expectations for next year that may result in pleasant surprises should conditions not be as dire as analysts’ project.