The Real Estate News Brief: Fed Chief’s Jackson Hole Message, Inflation Dips in July, Hot Market Regrets for Homebuyers
Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Release Date: 08/31/2022
Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 23rd, 2024... why the latest Fed meeting provided some assurance about potential rate cuts in the months ahead, what you would pay for a home if home price growth hadn’t outpaced inflation, and how Airbnb is dealing with the use of monitoring devices like indoor cameras. We begin with economic news from this past week. The Fed held rates steady at the March meeting this last week, and suggested that we’re likely to see “three” quarter-percent rate cuts this year. The current short-term interest rate is between 5.25% and 5.5%. If...
info_outline Study: Hundreds of Small Banks Still at Risk Due to CRE LoansReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Regional banks are still under pressure because of their exposure to commercial real estate loans. A new study shows that almost 300 banks are at risk of failure if they don’t get an infusion of cash or merge with another institution. And the risk grows as time drags on with higher short-term interest rates. Consulting firm Klaros Group analyzed about 4,000 banks. It found that 282 or more than 7% of the banks in the study are under stress, and that most of the ones at risk are community banks with less than $10 billion in assets. But it also found that 16 regional banks holding $10 and $100...
info_outline Japan Ends Long History of Negative Interest RatesReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
For the first time in 17 years, Japan is hiking short-term rates from negative to positive. Japan has been battling deflation and economic stagflation since the worldwide economic crisis and was the lone hold-out among several countries experimenting with negative rates. This last week, that experiment ended with a rate hike from negative .1% to between zero and positive .1%. The Japanese economy has been suffering through a very long period of stagflation. This has been going on since the late 1990’s but the decision to lower short-term rates happened sometime after the 2007 to...
info_outline The Real Estate News Brief: More Inflation Concerns, Big Change for Home Sales, Single-Family Construction Hot SpotsReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 16th, 2024... what the latest inflation reports are telling us, why home sellers might be jumping for joy, and where we’ll be seeing the most single-family construction. We begin with economic news from this past week. Two new inflation reports add to concerns about which way prices are going. The Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index both show prices were higher in February with the PPI showing the biggest surprise on the upside. The PPI represents the wholesale cost of goods and services and what we might...
info_outline Inflation Report Surprise and How That Could Impact Rate CutsReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
The latest inflation reports are renewing concerns about whether prices are going up or down. Both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index were released for the month of February this week. They were both on the hot side but the PPI delivered the big surprise. The Federal Reserve released the CPI on Tuesday which shows that inflation was up .4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago. Economists had anticipated an increase but the annual rate was slightly higher than they expected. As for the core rate, which eliminates food and fuel, both were higher than expected by one...
info_outline The Real Estate News Brief: Home Selling Sentiment Rises, Builders Are Feeling Bullish, Local Retail ComebackReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 9th, 2024... why we might see more homes on the market this spring, what builders are planning for this year, and where local stores are experiencing a big comeback. We begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress about the state of the economy and said that it’s “growing at a healthy, sustainable, solid, strong pace.” He also said that policymakers were paying attention to the risks of inflation and that more evidence is needed to reduce the interest rate...
info_outline Who’s Slamming on the Real Estate Brakes in Texas?Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Texas multifamily developers may have overshot their goal. They have pumped so much new product into the market, that many have slammed on the brakes for new builds as they finish up current projects. According to a detailed report in The Real Deal, Texas apartment developers have produced more apartments than almost any other group of US developers over the last three years. In Dallas, they put more than 20,000 apartments on the market last year. That’s about twice the number of new apartments that opened up in New York with a much larger population. In Austin, the story is...
info_outline The Real Estate News Brief: Another Bump “Up” for Inflation, Builder Challenges Continue, and a New Trend in Home DesignReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 2nd, 2024... you’ll hear what the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is telling us, the challenges facing builders today, and a popular new trend in home design.... We begin with economic news from this past week. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report came out last week showing the biggest increase in four months. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index or PCE was up .3% in January to an annual rate of 2.4%. The “core” rate, which excludes prices for energy and food, was up .4% with an annual rate of 2.8%. The...
info_outline Bumpy Ride for Inflation Battle but No Big Worries with Latest ReportReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
The latest report on inflation is showing the biggest increase in four months. It’s the PCE report which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and one that provides important data for a decision on rate cuts. The results were also in-line with expectations and what the Fed expects to be a bumpy ride back to its 2% target. PCE stands for the Personal Consumption Expenditure index. The Fed prefers this report over the Consumer Price Index because it more accurately reflects what substitutions consumers are making as prices rise and fall. But the Consumer Price Index or CPI also...
info_outline The Real Estate News Brief: All-Cash Home Buyers, Huge Lawsuit Against NAR, Single-Family Rent GrowthReal Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 24th, 2024... the 2023 numbers for all-cash home buyers, where NAR stands on a huge class-action lawsuit, and what’s happening with single-family rent growth. We begin with economic news from this past week. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s late January meeting show that Fed officials are more concerned about cutting rates too soon than they are about waiting too long. Released this last week, the minutes show that most committee members were concerned about the risks of going too fast while only a few were concerned...
info_outlineIn this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 27th, 2022... the Fed Chief’s Jackson Hole message on rate hikes, the July dip in inflation, and why some home buyers say they have regrets.
Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-estate-news-real-estate-investing-podcast/id1079952715
Economic News
We begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell shook things up with some hawkish remarks in a speech at Jackson Hole. His comments triggered a major stock market sell-off with the Dow dropping more than 1,000 points.
Powell’s speech focused on the central bank’s responsibility and resolve to get inflation back down to the 2% level. He said that could include another three-quarter point rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, but Powell said the size of the rate hike will depend on all the totality of the data between now and then. (1)
He also warned that households and businesses will feel some pain because of higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions, but doubled down on the need to continue with tight monetary policy for an extended length of time. Some economists believe that means “no” rate cuts in 2023, even if inflation has settled back down.
The Federal Funds rate is currently between 2.25% and 2.5% which Powell calls “neutral.” The Fed committee is expecting that rate hikes will bring it close to the 4% level, and it will remain there through the end of next year. But he says the Committee may offer a new prediction at the upcoming September meeting.
Powell’s speech came just after the latest report on the PCE or personal consumption expenditures index. That’s the central bank’s preferred gauge for inflation. The report shows inflation was down .1% in July, mostly due to lower gas prices. That brings the annual PCE down from 6.8% to 6.3%. (2) Powell responded to the report saying: “A single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.”
Meantime, the government issued an update on the second quarter GDP. It had initially said the economy contracted .9% but the revision shows it shrank .6%. The main reason for the upward revision is that consumer spending and business investment was stronger than previously reported. Business profits were also positive, after a decline in the first quarter. As MarketWatch reports, they were up 6.1% in Q2. That’s good news because when companies are profitable, there’s little incentive for layoffs. (3)
The weekly jobless report also shows that layoffs remain near record lows. New jobless claims were down to a one-month low of 243,000. They’ve been as low as 166,000 in March, which is the second-lowest level ever. The summer high point was 261,000, but they’ve been edging lower since then.
Moving on to home sales and the housing market slowdown. New home sales were down in July to their lowest level since January 2016. They fell 12.6% from an annual rate of 585,000 in June to 511,000 in July. Year-over-year, sales are down 29.6%. (4) Although that sounds bad, the housing market has been way too hot for quite some time. The slowdown will help slow home price growth, and bring the market back toward normal.
Existing home sales are also down. The National Association of Realtors reports that they fell 1% in July compared to June. But that’s less than the 3% drop that analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected. Year-over-year, existing home sales are down 19.9%. NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun says: “In terms of the current housing cycle, we may be at or close to the bottom in contract signings.” He says the smaller than expected drop is likely reflecting the stabilization of mortgage rates. (5)
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates had been bouncing around a bit near the 5% mark, but this last week, they shot up closer to 6%, which may not sound like they are stabilizing. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 42 basis points higher to a rate of 5.55%. The 15-year was up 30 points to 4.85%. (6) NAR economist, Nadia Evangelou, says that higher mortgage rates are hurting buyers more than higher home prices. She says a one percent increase in the mortgage rate is like a 13% increase in home price. (7)
In other news making headlines…
Homebuyer Regrets
The sizzling hot housing market we’ve seen in the last couple of years had resulted in a high number of remorseful homebuyers. A survey by Clever Real Estate shows that 72% of buyers have regrets about what they purchased. Of those remorseful buyers, 66% were millennial first-time buyers who were in a rush to settle down and raise a family.
About 1,000 people participated in the survey and had bought a home in either 2021 or 2022. 88% of those people said they were up against stiff competition which had an impact on their buying strategy. Many buyers said they increased their budget, sped up their plans to buy a home, expanded their search area, and even decreased the size of the home they wanted, in order to close on a deal. Some said they delayed their plans to purchase.
The biggest reason for their regrets is having spent too much money. 1 in 3 buyers paid more than asking price. More than half the buyers bought a fixer-upper and about 1 in 4 regret it. There’s a lot of data in this survey. If you’d like to see the full report, you’ll find a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com.
That’s it for today. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!
If you’d like to find rental properties that will help you build long-term wealth, please hit the “join” button at our website. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample properties and connect with our network of resources. We can put you in touch with property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs, and of course, our experienced investment counselors.
Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.
Links:
6 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
8 -https://anytimeestimate.com/research/american-home-buyers-2022/