244: Gold & Dollar Milkshake Brent Johnson, Santiago Capital
Release Date: 07/15/2020
338: Socrates AI Model- Unveiling the May 7th Turning Point: Recession, Civil Unrest & International War Ahead? | Martin Armstrong
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason welcomes back guest Martin Armstrong, a renowned economic forecaster. The conversation touches on Armstrong’s background, experiences in the financial industry, and his computer-driven approach to analysis. Armstrong’s economic confidence model predicts a peak on May 7th, signaling a shift towards a recession, civil unrest, and international conflicts into 2028. He emphasizes the significant role of the U.S. as a consumer-based economy and the global demand for American products, asserting that despite challenges, the U.S. dollar remains a strong reserve currency. Armstrong also...
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337: Retail Renaissance- Return of the Commercial Real Estate Market
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason welcomes Joshua Simon, founder of Simon Commercial Real Estate, as they discuss the state of commercial real estate. Josh highlights the strength of retail, especially in open-air strip centers and grocery-anchored spaces. Simon emphasized the retail renaissance, citing low vacancy rates and increased demand. Industrial properties faced challenges due to overbuilding, particularly in larger formats. Simon recommended investing in debt instruments or high-yielding retail assets, focusing on quick-service restaurants with strong operators and understanding lease structures. He also noted...
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336: Predicting the Next Economic Recession & Revolutionizing Banking with Decentralized Finance | Campbell Harvey
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason discusses the topic of decentralized finance (defi) and its potential advantages in the cryptocurrency world. He also touches on the issue of the US housing shortage and how it presents opportunities for real estate investors. Additionally, Jason highlights the benefits of joining the “Fire Your Managers” program and announced an upcoming Empowered Investor pro meeting that will host a guest who will present a special “tenant insurance” product. Finally, he invites everyone to join their community to grow their real estate portfolio. Jason then interviews Professor Campbell R....
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335: Declining Home Sales- What It Means for Investors and Renters with Selma Hepp
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason welcomes Selma Hepp, the Chief Economist of Core Logic. They discuss the challenging state of the real estate market and noted that the market was facing issues due to rising mortgage rates, which led to a decline in transactions and mortgage refinances. Additionally, she highlighted that existing homeowners were benefiting from this situation due to their low mortgage rates and increasing equity. Selma also pointed out that the volume of home sales was down by 18% last year and was expected to decline by a similar amount this year, while mortgage origins were likely to be down by...
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334: Global Economy, Demographic Trends and the Resilience of the US Rental Housing Market
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason discusses the state of the economy, focusing on the role of the Federal Reserve and potential supply chain issues. He also shared his opinion on the strength of the US dollar and Argentina’s decision to adopt it. Towards the end, Jason addressed the issue of inflation and its steady fall since June of the previous year. He also discussed changes in active inventory across various local real estate markets, comparing it to 2019, and highlighted the importance of inventory in the real estate market. Then Jason and Brian Beaulieu, Chief Economist at ITR Economics, talks about the state of...
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333: Freddie Mac Economist Reveals Connection with Mortgage Debt & GDP; What Every Homeowner Must Know!
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason talks about the importance of understanding the relationship between household real estate value, mortgage debt, and GDP. The presented chart indicates increased equity and decreased mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP, highlighting a more stable housing market. He touches on the benefits of leveraging properties and he analyzes a chart on median sold prices based on bedroom count, revealing significant appreciation in lower-priced properties. Jason welcomes Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, as they discuss the current state of the real estate market. Despite concerns...
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332: 2024 Housing Market Forecast: Why Home Prices Are Set to Soar Despite Challenges
The Commercial Investing Show
Today Jason talks about “shadow demand” in the housing market. He emphasizes the impact of demographics, particularly the 25 to 34 age group, where about 16% are still living at home, representing untapped demand. With 11 million potential homebuyers in this category, Jason explores the dynamics of supply and demand, debunking predictions of a looming shadow supply. He also touches on factors like low inventory, the influence of baby boomers staying in their homes, and potential wildcards like geopolitical risks affecting the housing market’s trajectory. Then Jason and Bridger finish...
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331: Unveiling the Macro Trends Shaping the Housing Market
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason discusses the impact of mortgage status on the US housing market and wealth distribution, highlighting the growing wealth gap and the formation of two socioeconomic classes due to approximately 40% of US homeowners not having a mortgage. He also touched on the performance of cyclical markets, particularly in luxury markets in Miami, New York, and California, attributing low sales volume to low inventory and high buyer demand. Lastly, he mentioned an upcoming cruise event and a monthly Zoom meeting for empowered investor pro members, in which they’ll be talking about insurance for...
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330: Debunking the Fear Porn- Economic Cycles and Housing Stability
The Commercial Investing Show
Michael Zuber talks to Jason about the housing market and the potential for a housing crash. Jason provides insights into why a housing crash hasn’t occurred so far, emphasizing the need for millions of distressed sellers as a key ingredient for a crash. He also mentions that people who predict crashes often lack a comprehensive understanding of economic cycles and are influenced by past traumatic events like the 2007-2008 housing crash. Additionally, the conversation touches on unemployment and its potential impact on the housing market, with Jason arguing that banks are more likely to work...
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329: Inflation-Induced Debt Destruction: How Real Estate Trumps Traditional Investments
The Commercial Investing Show
Jason joins Robert Helms and Russell Gray of The Real Estate Guys as they discuss the investment opportunities in single family housing in the real estate market, highlighting its flexibility, universality, and government backing. Jason suggested that investors should follow the US government’s business plan, and emphasized the resilience of the real estate market despite economic challenges. The group also talks about the advantages of negotiating the price and financing of properties, and discussed the importance of understanding the full range of benefits that come with real estate...
info_outlineWhat is the “dollar milkshake theory”? Brent Johnson joins Jason Hartman to share his ideas and concepts on macroeconomics. Particularly, what’s the strength of the U.S. dollar, and how does it compare to gold and other currencies? Brent also shares his thoughts on modern monetary theory and the possibility of its presence in the future, and potential problems.
Brent Johnson also discusses the broad term currency as it pertains to gold, the U.S. dollar, and many other currencies around the world. Brent shares his views on gold and the role it plays. As well, Brent and Jason discuss what is needed for money to be loaned into existence.
Key Takeaways:
[2:00] Dollar milkshake theory.
[4:00] Discussing MMT Modern Monetary Theory
[5:30] Until a new system is designed, there is no place to go, other than the U.S. dollar.
[9:10] Does MMT work or is a pipe-dream?
[12:35] Let’s talk about gold and the role it plays.
[19:00] Because money is loaned into existence, you need monetary velocity or credit expansion to be taking place.
[22:00] What about military tensions?
[26:45] How delicate is our economy that corporate giants need bailouts as bad as family-owned restaurants?
Websites:
twitter: @santiagoaufund
www.JasonHartman.com/properties