Financial Fitness Friday - Delta Variant | The Real Investment Show (Full Show EDIT) 7/2/21
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 07/02/2021
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming the S&P; Bond prices are improving. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. Markets' advance for past 5-months begs the question, what's...
info_outline A Bullish Set-up for Bonds (3/28/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Equal Weight Index has begun gaining traction, closing the gap with the S&P. Mid-caps have actually out-paced the Equal Weight Index, but still lags the S&P. Small-caps are the biggest laggard, still. Bonds have been picking up in price nicely of late, pushing up above a clustering of moving averages, creating a bullish set up for bond prices. We think bonds have a little more work to do because of what's going on with the Fed and inflation, but the set-up appears to be much improved for bonds. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO ...
info_outline Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement (3/27/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets' steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance's unique inflation indicator... Markets still act like there's a flood of liquidity when there's not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry...
info_outline Markets' Steep Ascent is Unsustainable (3/27/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
The end of the month of March marks another round of quarterly rebalancing in portfolios. Markets have remained within a well-defined trend channel for the past few weeks. After selling off for ther past three days, futures this morning are pointing a little higher. The markets' angle of ascent continues to be very steep, which is, ultimately, unsustainable. This is a sign of market exhaustion, with all the buyers in the market. Volatility remains low because investors do not perceive any risk to the market. But this is not a 'can't stop won't stop' market: It will not last indefinitely. These...
info_outline Do Technical Measures & Valuations Matter? (3/26/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" - Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that...
info_outline Markets Will Retest the 200-DMA (3/26/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have scored very positive returns over the past five months. When markets are so deviated from the 200-DMA, ultimately, they will connect back down to that average. We've been here before. Statistically speaking, when the markets have been positive for five months, odds are the year will end on a positive note. The devil is in the details, and what happens between now and then. Despite the longevity of a bull run, markets will always revert to the mean. The market psychology and momentum will continue to push stock prices higher...for now. But at some point, a correction will occur,...
info_outline Are Market Bubbles a Function of Psychology? (3/25/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed's Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The mechanics of Social Security: more retirees earlier than expected. The things that always get paid when the...
info_outline Risk is Building for a Correction...at some point (3/25/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have had a very strong advance over the past 21-weeks. The one thing we keep paying attention to is the indicator of the convergence/divergence line, which has been stuck at a very high level. It is highly unusual that markets have been this complacent for so long. That will end at some point; the question is what will end it, and when?? Markets beginning to add breadth is an encouraging sign, but complacency is still a concern. Meanwhile, more speculative activity is beginning to emerge. Money moving back into cryptocurrency is indicative of the height of speculation. The Reddit IPO...
info_outline Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024 (3/22/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to deal with reinvestment risks as rates begin to fall; alternatives to getting away from high fixed-income earnings. SEG-1: The Three Rate Cut Stooges...
info_outline How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You? (3/21/24)The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement. Changes to the Child Tax Credit for 2024 (it's not a deduction, but a credit against the tax you owe); caveat: It's not indexed for inflation. What about using insurance products as an investing tool. Danny & Jonathan discuss the evolution of annuities and the best approach for determining their usefulness; how to determine how much to invest in an...
info_outlineSEG-1: America: Still the Cleanest Dirty Shirt
SEG-2: Long Term Care vs Medicare Advantage
SEG-3: Vacation/Job Trends post-Pandemic
SEG-4: Financial Lessons from George Washington
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- Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP
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