When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor 16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift 16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real? 19:04:...
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Stalemate in Ukraine
Star Spangled Gamblers
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest 1:32: Manifest conference 2024 4:33: Interview begins 5:17: High-level update on the war 13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war 14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates...
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The Emerging Forecasting Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets. 0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn 1:24:...
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The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment 4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo 8:28: Darling interview begins 10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP 11:49: Noem's history with Trump 15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey...
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How Bad Is Trump's Health?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease 6:32: Trump's physique 10:12: Trump's psychology 11:05: Note from Trump's doctor 13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition? 15:06: Trump's genetics 17:46: Is weight protective in old age? 21:00: Trump's cognitive decline 25:29:...
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Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
Star Spangled Gamblers
While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment 1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling 4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections 7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins...
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AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)
Star Spangled Gamblers
Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry 6:18: AI and effective altruism 13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities? 30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market Follow us on Twitter...
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Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
Star Spangled Gamblers
Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets Timestamps 5:08: Interview with Lucas begins 6:39: Biden's cognitive decline 8:49: Biden's physical health 10:20: Biden's aneurysms 13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign 15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury 18:45:...
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Can DeSantis Make a Comeback?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes. Timestamps 4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins 7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms 12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to...
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A Mitch McConnell Health Cover-up?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 5:01: Interview with Lucas begins 5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted 8:07: How Lucas got into political betting 9:36:...
info_outlineGaeten, Zoltar, and one of Polymarket's most infamous whales take a deep dive -- literally -- into the "liquidity" business of prediction markets. For the first time ever, experts break down how to get paid in Polymarket's opaque liquidity pools.