Today’s Market = 1999 Capex + 2008 Credit - Ep 298
The Intellectual Investor
Anthropic's revenue has grown nearly 10x a year, three years running. Its losses are accelerating with it. And here is Dario Amodei in February: "If my revenue is not 1 trillion dollars, if it's even $800 billion, there's no force on earth, there's no hedge on earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I buy that much compute." The AI rollout has felt like déjà vu of the 1999 telecom bubble. It is starting to feel like that bubble is being supersized into something closer to what led to the 2008 financial crisis. Trillions in data centers, financed through the same opaque vehicles that...
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You Don't Need to Be an Expert to Hire One. You Need a Tunaman. - Ep 297
The Intellectual Investor
My wife and I are taking a perfectly good 25-year-old house and spending 20% of the purchase price on a sizable remodel. Parts of it are going back to the studs. I had never done a big remodel, I knew nothing about construction, and I was shocked by how many landmines, wrong decisions, and outright deceptions we had to avoid just to start. Strangely, the experience gave me incredible empathy for the smart, highly educated people who walk into a financial firm like mine: lawyers, doctors, engineers, businesspeople trying to decide who will manage their life savings. They feel what I felt. A mix...
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Most People Don't Want to Write. They Want to Have Written. - Ep 296
The Intellectual Investor
I was at a conference in Switzerland. A reader came up to me and asked, "Vitaliy, I've been reading your articles for years. I'd like to write. How should I start?" This question spilled into a long conversation over dinner. When I told him what almost two decades of writing have taught me, his face fell. He'd tried it. He'd spent weeks staring at the computer and written complete garbage. Welcome to my world. In this piece, I work through what I told him over that dinner. Frustration and empty pages are par for the course. Quantity and quality are joined at the hip. "Writing is rewriting" is...
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You are not as smart as you think you are - Ep 295
The Intellectual Investor
Lately, I've been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game? Did I find a secret way to follow Will Rogers' advice: Buy stocks that go up, and if they don't go up, don't buy them? No. I didn't get much smarter. I was simply a willing participant in the latest cyclical bull market. A bull market makes you feel smarter than you are, the same way a bear market makes you feel dumber than you are. This piece is a small excerpt from my first book, Active Value Investing (2007), which I...
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Guy and I - Ep 294
The Intellectual Investor
My dear friend Guy Spier did an almost hour-long interview with CNBC's Becky Quick. It is an interview I wish had never happened, or, if it did, for a different reason. Guy has been diagnosed with glioblastoma (GBM), one of the deadliest cancers. In January, Guy returned money to his investors, closed his fund, and wrote a must-read letter. I first heard of Guy at Charlie Munger's Daily Journal meeting, when a friend pointed to his silhouette and whispered his name with a deference that made me take note. Our friendship actually began a few years later in Trani, Italy, where my brother Alex...
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This Is Your Captain Speaking - Buckle Up - Ep 293
The Intellectual Investor
I am on the flight from Denver to San Francisco with my twelve-year-old daughter when I write this letter to IMA clients about the craziness I am seeing in the markets. The turbulence on the flight gave me the pilot analogy. The rest came from what I see in valuations. This market is starting to feel incredibly bubbly, approaching circa 1999. The similarities are eerie. Intel and Corning, darlings of 1999, are at multidecade highs at nosebleed valuations. Walmart is trading at 50 times earnings again, the same multiple that produced no returns for shareholders from 1999 to 2014. And Nvidia,...
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Fiddler on the Roof and Value Investing - Ep 292
The Intellectual Investor
It was 2006, my fifth year teaching a graduate investment class at the University of Colorado at Denver, and I had stopped preparing for lectures. One day I opened the syllabus and found discounted cash flow analysis on the menu. I started with: "Imagine you are a farmer about to buy a cow. How much would you pay for that cow?" A few days later, on a Saturday morning, I was sitting in my basement working on the valuation chapter of my first book, Active Value Investing. I was stuck. Valuation can be a very dry and boring topic. After staring at a blank screen for hours, I started listening to...
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What to Do When a Stock Drops 25% - Ep 291
The Intellectual Investor
A client emails me: stock XYZ has declined 25%, is the thesis broken? It's a fair question, and the honest answer is one I want to walk through carefully, because the same client letter brought a second question wearing different clothes: how do you tell the difference between patience and stubbornness when a position isn't working? Both questions get at something I think about constantly: how to hold a position through doubt without either flinching at noise or hardening into ego. Daily liquidity in the stock market is both a feature and a bug, and most of the job of being a long-term...
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Greg Abel Takes Over Berkshire Hathaway: My Thoughts After Omaha 2026 - Ep 290
The Intellectual Investor
📩 Join 100,000+ readers on my FREE weekly email newsletter: Adam Anderson's interview - AI-generated summary: The Intellectual Investor Breakfast 2027 signup form: 📚 Get my books: Soul in the Game - The Little Book of Sideways Markets - Active Value Investing - WHO AM I: Vitaliy Katsenelson is the CEO of Investment Management Associates () in 2012. Forbes Magazine called him "The New Benjamin Graham." He's written for publications including Financial Times, Barron's, Institutional Investor, and Foreign Policy.
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What the Iran War Reveals About the Dollar, Gold, and the End of US Exceptionalism - Ep 289
The Intellectual Investor
The US dollar accounts for 58% of foreign currency reserves today, down from 70% two decades ago. The US government's freezing of roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank reserves turned the dollar into a political weapon and undermined the comfort countries (even adversaries) had in it. Central banks are now accumulating gold as if preparing for an Indian wedding. The Iran war, an unraveling of post-WWII alliances, and a US borrowing 6% more than it earns are all reacting to the same underlying shift: the assumptions behind US exceptionalism are quietly being rewritten. I walk through...
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