#85 Kerbel on Anticipatory Intelligence and Complexity
Release Date: 03/01/2022
#221 Carrick Longley on Influence Automation
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Carrick Longley discusses Large Language Models (LLM) and influence. Key topics include: LLM 101 Usage and changes in prompt engineering Improving influence resonance and speed The recent DeepSeek model controversy Bias in foundational models and Software development Recording...
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#220 Tom Kent on US International Broadcasting and Soft Power
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Tom Kent returns to the Cognitive Crucible to share his concerns related to the United States recent withdrawal from international broadcasting. Topics include: US soft power, abandoning pro-democracy initiatives, impact on international relations, international broadcasting...
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#219 Dr. Josh Segal on Are We Losing the War? Lethality, Deterrence, and Information
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Dr. Josh “Bugsy” Segal asks the provocative question: Are We Losing the War? Josh discusses the importance of understanding the impact of the nation's investments in soft power assets and programs, emphasizing the need for a strategic approach and a broader national security...
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#218 Chris Greenway on BBC Monitoring
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Chris Greenway discusses the origins and evolution of BBC Monitoring, a service that gathers news from various sources. BBC Monitoring began in the 1930s as a response to the BBC's external broadcasts, with the initial focus on Arabic, Spanish, and Portuguese languages. The British...
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#217 Janne Riihelainen on the EU Influence Operations Course
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Janne Riihelainen discusses the Information Operations Course funded by the European Union, which aims to enhance security by educating individuals on their role in providing security. Janne also expressed concern regarding the current cultural and political climate and risks...
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#216 John Cappello on the Balkan Security Network
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, John Cappello emphasized the importance of collaboration and sharing experiences in the Western United States to combat disinformation and influence social dynamics. He suggested several research areas, including the use of disinformation in the Western Balkans, the impact of...
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#215 Brian Hamel on the Special Operations Forces, Cyberspace, and Space Triad
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Brian Hamel discusses his 2023 Army Command and General Staff Theses entitled: . Brian delves into the complex and evolving landscape of modern warfare, focusing on the intersection of Special Operations Forces (SOF), cyberspace, and space. The "Triad" emphasizes the synergistic...
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#214 Jon Roginski and Stephanie Jaros on Insider Threat and Workforce Protection
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Jon Roginski and Stephanie Jaros discuss the strategic landscape for insider threat and workforce protection programs, emphasizing the need for a more holistic approach that considers both technical and human factors. They also explored the importance of balancing the use of...
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#213 Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi on Countering Authoritarian Influence
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi Sviatoslav discusses propaganda and disinformation in society and the challenges of discerning truth in the age of social media. ’ specific expertise lies in working with hard-to-reach regions, including occupied territories, closed platforms, and...
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#212 Libby Lange on Algorithmic Cognitive Warfare
The Cognitive Crucible
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Libby Lange discusses her recent article: . Recording Date: 9 Dec 2024 Research Question: Libby Lange suggests an interested student or researcher: Take the concept of Algorithmic Cognitive Warfare from the hypothetical and theoretical into the real world and find evidence of...
info_outlineThe Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
During this episode, Josh Kerbel of the National Intelligence University discusses the need for anticipatory intelligence. He contrasts the relatively simple historical national environment with today’s complex world. Josh explains why the traditional mindset of containment, which The West deployed to counter the Soviet agenda during the Cold War, is inappropriate today. Traditional analysis tools and linear problem solving are likewise inadequate for understanding complex, emergent dynamics.
Resources:
- IPA Members Only Social and Live Podcast Recording
- Phoenix Challenge Conference (last week of April 2022)
- Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
- National Security Language Is Stuck in the Cold War by Josh Kerbel
- Our 'cold war' frame distorts more than just our view of China by Josh Kerbel
- National Intelligence University
- Dark sky tourism is on the rise across the U.S.
Link to full show notes and resources
https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-85
Guest Bio: Josh Kerbel is a member of the research faculty at the National Intelligence University where he explores the increasingly complex security environment and the associated intelligence challenges. Prior to joining NIU, he held senior analytical positions at DIA, ODNI (including the NIC), the Navy staff, CIA, and ONI. His writings on the intersections of government (especially intelligence) and complexity have been published in Foreign Policy, The Washington Post, Studies in Intelligence, Slate, The National Interest, The Hill, War on the Rocks, Defense One, Parameters, and other outlets. Mr. Kerbel has degrees from the George Washington University and the London School of Economics as well as professional certifications from the Naval War College and the Naval Postgraduate School. More recently he was a post-graduate fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The views expressed here are his alone.
About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
For more information, please contact us at [email protected].
Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
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