#85 Kerbel on Anticipatory Intelligence and Complexity

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.

During this episode, Josh Kerbel of the National Intelligence University discusses the need for anticipatory intelligence. He contrasts the relatively simple historical national environment with today’s complex world. Josh explains why the traditional mindset of containment, which The West deployed to counter the Soviet agenda during the Cold War, is inappropriate today. Traditional analysis tools and linear problem solving are likewise inadequate for understanding complex, emergent dynamics.

Resources:

• IPA Members Only Social and Live Podcast Recording
• Phoenix Challenge Conference (last week of April 2022)
• Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
  • #47 Yaneer Bar-Yam on Complex Systems and the War on Ideals
  • #14 BDJ on Threatcasting
  • #32 Greg Treverton on Intelligence Global Trends and Technopolitics
• National Security Language Is Stuck in the Cold War by Josh Kerbel
• Our 'cold war' frame distorts more than just our view of China by Josh Kerbel
• National Intelligence University
• Dark sky tourism is on the rise across the U.S.

Link to full show notes and resources

https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-85

Guest Bio: Josh Kerbel is a member of the research faculty at the National Intelligence University where he explores the increasingly complex security environment and the associated intelligence challenges. Prior to joining NIU, he held senior analytical positions at DIA, ODNI (including the NIC), the Navy staff, CIA, and ONI. His writings on the intersections of government (especially intelligence) and complexity have been published in Foreign Policy, The Washington Post, Studies in Intelligence, Slate, The National Interest, The Hill, War on the Rocks, Defense One, Parameters, and other outlets. Mr. Kerbel has degrees from the George Washington University and the London School of Economics as well as professional certifications from the Naval War College and the Naval Postgraduate School. More recently he was a post-graduate fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The views expressed here are his alone.

About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.

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