Can You Predict Real Estate Market Trends? The 18.6-Year Property Cycle as Explained by Experts
Release Date: 04/07/2024
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info_outlineCan you time the real estate market? Discover the secrets of the 18.6-year property cycle and learn how to predict market trends for successful investments.
Join hosts Brad East and Casey Taylor on "Talk Property To Me" as they demystify the 18.6-year property cycle. Based on the work of Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson, this theory offers a unique lens for analyzing market patterns. Learn about the cycle's phases, historical evidence, and how to leverage this knowledge to make informed real estate decisions.
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EPISODE IN A GLANCE
00:00 - The 18.6 year real estate cycle theory and its origins from Phil Anderson's book "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking." the different phases of the cycle - the first half, mid-cycle slowdown, and second half, with examples of past events triggering the slowdowns.
01:11 - Inspirations & Cycle Start: Discussing inspirations like Fred Harrison's work, pinpointing the start of the current cycle after the GFC recovery, and the mindset for investors.
03:32 - Market Timing: Warnings against trying to precisely time market cycles and identifying potential opportunities to buy according to the theory.
04:48 - Mid-Cycle: Characteristics of the mid-cycle slowdown phase, cities outperforming, factors triggering it, and expected market corrections.
06:52 - Second Half & Peak: Dynamics of the second half rally, cities benefiting, escalating demand/FOMO towards the "winner's curse" peak.
08:44 - Predictions & Australia: Predicted timing of the next major correction, caveats about theories, and characteristics of the Australian property market.
10:23 - Market Influence & Strategies: The importance of residential property to the Australian economy and strategies for preparing portfolios before a correction.
13:37 - Being Proactive & Indicators: Advice on being proactive, market signals like days on market/vendor discounts, and role of interest rates.
ABOUT THE HOSTS
BRAD EAST
Brad East is the Managing Director of Wisebuy Home Loans. Brad is an award-winning mortgage broker and has helped thousands of clients gain finance to purchase properties. Wisebuy Home Loans is the go-to mortgage brokerage for clients wanting out-of-the-box applications approved.
Website → https://wisebuygroup.com.au
LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/newcastlemortgagebroker/
Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/bradeast_mortgagebroker/
Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/bradeastofficial
CASEY TAYLOR
Casey Taylor is the Managing Director of Taylored Property Welth who specializes in helping clients purchase high-performing investment properties. Casey has a huge amount of knowledge when it comes to property investment and will be sharing this with the listeners.
Website → https://tayloredpropertywealth.com.au
LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/wealth-property-buyersagent-investment-financialfreedom/
Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/casey.taylor_tpw_buyersagent/