loader from loading.io

Can You Predict Real Estate Market Trends? The 18.6-Year Property Cycle as Explained by Experts

Talk Property To Me Podcast

Release Date: 04/07/2024

If You're a First Home Buyer, You're 100% Making These Mistakes (Australia 2025) show art If You're a First Home Buyer, You're 100% Making These Mistakes (Australia 2025)

Talk Property To Me Podcast

Buying your first home in Australia? Chances are, you're making at least one of these costly mistakes — and it could be the difference between getting approved or getting rejected, overpaying or negotiating like a pro. ...

info_outline
Australia Election 2025: What It Means for the Property Market show art Australia Election 2025: What It Means for the Property Market

Talk Property To Me Podcast

In this episode of Talk Property To Me, hosts Brad East and Aaron Downie break down the potential impact of Australia’s upcoming federal election on the housing market, lending conditions, and investor confidence. From proposed tax reforms to housing affordability policies, they explore what a change in government—or a mandate to stay the course—could mean for everyday buyers, sellers, and property investors. 🔍 What You’ll Learn: ✅ Key election policies that could reshape the real estate landscape ✅ How political uncertainty affects buyer behavior and market sentiment ✅ What...

info_outline
Trumps Tariffs and How It Will Affect The Australian Property Market show art Trumps Tariffs and How It Will Affect The Australian Property Market

Talk Property To Me Podcast

In this episode of Talk Property To me, hosts Brad East and Aaron Downie explore the impact of Trump's tariffs on the Australian property market and self-managed super funds (SMSFs). We begin by discussing Trump's use of tariffs as a negotiation tool, particularly with China and the U.S., and how these policies have led to significant volatility in global markets, including a $71 billion loss in the ASX. While the direct effects on Australia have been limited, we highlight the challenges faced by Australian e-commerce businesses reliant on Chinese goods now subject to steep tariffs. The...

info_outline
How to Build $500K in Passive Income by Investing in Commercial Property (In Just 7 Years!) show art How to Build $500K in Passive Income by Investing in Commercial Property (In Just 7 Years!)

Talk Property To Me Podcast

In this episode of Talk Property To Me, hosts Brad East and Aaron Downie dive into the world of commercial real estate with Steve Palise, Australia’s top commercial property expert. Discover whether commercial investing is the key to passive income or a hidden risk—and learn how to navigate this lucrative market. 🔍 What You’ll Learn: ✅ Residential vs. Commercial – Which offers better cash flow and capital growth? ✅ Lease Structures & Net Yields – Why tenants cover all outgoings (unlike residential). ✅ Deposit Hurdles & Finance – Why 30-35% deposits are standard...

info_outline
Rental Market Crashing In 2025? Here's What You Need To Know show art Rental Market Crashing In 2025? Here's What You Need To Know

Talk Property To Me Podcast

In this episode of Talk Property To Me, hosts Brad East and Aaron Downie break down the latest rental market trends in Australia for 2025. With rental prices dropping in key areas across Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne, what does this mean for renters and landlords? We analyze the PropTrack report from September 2024, which reveals that many Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Sydney are now seeing renters paying below advertised rents. Suburbs like Woollahra, North Balgowlah, and McLeod (Melbourne) have experienced significant rent declines, while Brisbane’s rental prices have dropped by 5-7%....

info_outline
How Much Do Rate Cuts Affect Borrowing Power show art How Much Do Rate Cuts Affect Borrowing Power

Talk Property To Me Podcast

Welcome back to another episode of Talk Property To Me! I'm your host, Brad East, alongside my co-host, Aaron Downie. In today's episode, we dive deep into the impact of recent RBA rate cuts on your borrowing capacity and mortgage repayments. We kick things off by discussing the common sentiment we've heard from potential buyers: "I'm going to wait for rates to go down before I make a purchase." We aim to break down this mindset and illustrate the opportunity cost of waiting in the current market. To provide context, we present a simple case study featuring a couple with no children, each...

info_outline
Navigating the Melbourne Property Market: Insights with Emily Wallace show art Navigating the Melbourne Property Market: Insights with Emily Wallace

Talk Property To Me Podcast

In this episode of "Talk Property," hosts Brad East and Aaron Downie welcome Emily Wallace, a seasoned buyers' agent based in Melbourne, to discuss the dynamic property market in the city. With a focus on the current trends, challenges, and opportunities, Emily shares her insights on the Melbourne real estate landscape, particularly for first-time home buyers and investors. Key Highlights: Introduction to Emily Wallace: Emily introduces herself as the director of a buyers' agency in Melbourne, where she assists first-time buyers and families in navigating the property market. She emphasizes...

info_outline
Interest Rate Predictions: Will We See a Cut This February? show art Interest Rate Predictions: Will We See a Cut This February?

Talk Property To Me Podcast

Welcome back to another insightful episode of Talk Property To Me! I'm your host, Brad East, alongside my co-host, Aaron Downie. In this episode, we dive deep into the current economic landscape in Australia, focusing on the latest trends in inflation and interest rate predictions. We kick off the discussion by examining the recent decline in Australia's inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.5% in the December quarter from 2.8% in the previous quarter. We break down the components of inflation, distinguishing between goods inflation (currently at 0.8%) and services inflation (still high at...

info_outline
7 Australian Property Market Trends You Can't Ignore In 2025 show art 7 Australian Property Market Trends You Can't Ignore In 2025

Talk Property To Me Podcast

Welcome back to another episode of Talk Property To Me! I'm your host, Brad East, alongside my co-host, Aaron Downie. In today's episode, we dive into seven significant trends reshaping the property market as we look ahead to 2025. We kick off the discussion by highlighting the rise of millennials as the largest adult cohort in Australia. This demographic shift is crucial as millennials have different preferences compared to previous generations, particularly when it comes to property. They are leaning towards smaller homes closer to urban centers, which ties into our fourth trend: shrinking...

info_outline
2024 Property Market Wrap-Up: Insights and Trends show art 2024 Property Market Wrap-Up: Insights and Trends

Talk Property To Me Podcast

Welcome back to another episode of Talk Property to Me! I'm your host, Aaron Downie, and alongside me is my co-host, Brad East. In this episode, we dive into a comprehensive wrap-up of the property market for 2024, discussing the performance of major capital cities and regional centres across Australia over the past year. We kick things off by addressing the financial landscape, noting that the cash rate has remained unchanged at 4.3% since November 2023. This stability has led to a rather uneventful year in terms of interest rates, yet we highlight some remarkable growth in property values,...

info_outline
 
More Episodes

Can you time the real estate market? Discover the secrets of the 18.6-year property cycle and learn how to predict market trends for successful investments.

Join hosts Brad East and Casey Taylor on "Talk Property To Me" as they demystify the 18.6-year property cycle. Based on the work of Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson, this theory offers a unique lens for analyzing market patterns.  Learn about the cycle's phases, historical evidence, and how to leverage this knowledge to make informed real estate decisions.

Prepare for the next market shift! Join our exclusive Facebook group for ongoing support and expert advice on Australian finance and real estate.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/talkpropertytome 

Follow our podcast instagram here → https://www.instagram.com/talk_property_to_me_podcast/ 

EPISODE IN A GLANCE 
00:00 - The 18.6 year real estate cycle theory and its origins from Phil Anderson's book "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking." the different phases of the cycle - the first half, mid-cycle slowdown, and second half, with examples of past events triggering the slowdowns.
01:11 - Inspirations & Cycle Start: Discussing inspirations like Fred Harrison's work, pinpointing the start of the current cycle after the GFC recovery, and the mindset for investors.
03:32 - Market Timing: Warnings against trying to precisely time market cycles and identifying potential opportunities to buy according to the theory.
04:48 - Mid-Cycle: Characteristics of the mid-cycle slowdown phase, cities outperforming, factors triggering it, and expected market corrections.
06:52 - Second Half & Peak: Dynamics of the second half rally, cities benefiting, escalating demand/FOMO towards the "winner's curse" peak.
08:44 - Predictions & Australia: Predicted timing of the next major correction, caveats about theories, and characteristics of the Australian property market.
10:23 - Market Influence & Strategies: The importance of residential property to the Australian economy and strategies for preparing portfolios before a correction.
13:37 - Being Proactive & Indicators: Advice on being proactive, market signals like days on market/vendor discounts, and role of interest rates.

ABOUT THE HOSTS

BRAD EAST
Brad East is the Managing Director of Wisebuy Home Loans. Brad is an award-winning mortgage broker and has helped thousands of clients gain finance to purchase properties. Wisebuy Home Loans is the go-to mortgage brokerage for clients wanting out-of-the-box applications approved.

Website → https://wisebuygroup.com.au 

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/newcastlemortgagebroker/ 

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/bradeast_mortgagebroker/ 

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/bradeastofficial 

 CASEY TAYLOR
Casey Taylor is the Managing Director of Taylored Property Welth who specializes in helping clients purchase high-performing investment properties. Casey has a huge amount of knowledge when it comes to property investment and will be sharing this with the listeners.

Website → https://tayloredpropertywealth.com.au 

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/wealth-property-buyersagent-investment-financialfreedom/ 

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/casey.taylor_tpw_buyersagent/ 

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/tayloredpropertywealth