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Extreme Stock Market Volatility is Here Due to the Tariff Situation

Your Personal Bank

Release Date: 04/16/2025

The Short and Long Term Risks of the Current Stock Market and Economy show art The Short and Long Term Risks of the Current Stock Market and Economy

Your Personal Bank

Ferenc shares the short and long term risks to the current stock market and the overall economy.   Short-term:     - AI Bubble    - Extreme valuations (all-time highs)    - Extreme concentration in a few tech stocks    - Nvidia: about half of sales from only 3 companies   Long-term:     - Higher bond yields caused by government debt and stubborn inflation    - Increased borrowing costs    - Generally bad for stock and real estate valuations     How do you take advantage of future...

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Is the AI Bubble Starting to Burst? show art Is the AI Bubble Starting to Burst?

Your Personal Bank

Ferenc discusses the parallels between the current tech stock market bubble and the dot-com era, emphasizing the risks of overvaluation and potential corrections. He recounts a listener's 100% return on tech stocks and warns of the dangers of not locking in gains. Ferenc highlights the MIT study showing 95% of companies saw no return on AI investments, and the potential for a severe market correction. He also addresses the Federal Reserve's new inflation target and the implications for interest rates. Ferenc advises on risk management strategies, including annuities and cash value insurance,...

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Is the AI Bubble Starting to Burst? show art Is the AI Bubble Starting to Burst?

Your Personal Bank

A recent MIT study found that 95% of companies have received no benefit from generative Artificial Intelligence (AI).   Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently warned of an AI bubble. Altman compared the current AI frenzy and the 1990's dotcom bubble when company valuations spike dramatically before crashing.   The poster child of the dotcom craze was Pets.com. It was backed by Amazon. Pets.com reached a valuation of $410 million before going bankrupt about a year later.   CoreWeave is an AI company backed by Nvidia. After the MIT study, its stock dropped 33%....

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The S&P500 has Hit the Highest Valuations in History! show art The S&P500 has Hit the Highest Valuations in History!

Your Personal Bank

Regardless of how you measure the S&P500, it is at the highest levels in history. The current valuations are higher than 1929 and 1999.    The S&P500 Price to Sales Ratio has hit 3.2, the highest level ever recorded.   The top 10% largest companies account for 76% of the US total equity market. This is a new all-time record.   The top 10 companies in the S&P500 are nearly 40% of the total S&P500 valuation. They also account for nearly all of the gains over the past couple of years.   The remaining 490 companies in the S&P500 have declined in...

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The Buffet Indicator Has Hit 2x Standard Deviation for the 3rd Time Since 1950 show art The Buffet Indicator Has Hit 2x Standard Deviation for the 3rd Time Since 1950

Your Personal Bank

The Buffett Indicator is a measure of the total market capitalization of publicly traded companies to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).   Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment".   The Buffett Indicator has hit 2 times standard deviation for the 3rd time since 1950.   Two times standard deviation is double the average value. This means the overall stock market is double the average value.     Previously, the Buffett Indicator hit this level in 1969 and 2000. Both times the stock market had...

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The Trade Deals Give Reasons for Optimism Yet the Transition will Likely Create Volatility show art The Trade Deals Give Reasons for Optimism Yet the Transition will Likely Create Volatility

Your Personal Bank

Trump has Announced Several Astounding Trade Deals   The terms on the recent trade deals are very favorable for the United States.   -     Japan: 15% tariff, no tariff for US products, $550 billion joint-venture investment, 90% profit to US.   -     South Korea: 15% tariff, no tariff for US products, open market to US, $350 billion investment in US.   -     European Union: 15% tariff, no tariff for US products, $750 billion US energy purchase, $650 billion investment in the US.   The...

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There are Significant Tax Opportunities Due to the Big, Beautiful Bill show art There are Significant Tax Opportunities Due to the Big, Beautiful Bill

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Ferenc cuts through the noise and politics and continues to share significant tax opportunities for many people due to the Big, Beautiful Bill that is now passed as law.     The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.      - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.      - Fixed Index...

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Economists Created a Model of the US Economy using NASA Computers. The Model Crashed Due to the Federal Debt. show art Economists Created a Model of the US Economy using NASA Computers. The Model Crashed Due to the Federal Debt.

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Some leading economists and mathematicians built a computer model of the US economy to run various scenarios. Because this was such a big math problem, they used thousands of NASA and Amazon computers.   The computers were unable to create a working model because of the rising debt. Us Government Debt is currently over $36 Trillion. The increasing interest on the debt is unsustainable. The computers projected interest on the debt would consume one-third of all tax revenues within a decade. In 20 years, interest on the debt was estimated to be about 80% of tax revenue.   With the...

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The Big, Beautiful Bill has Passed. What is in it? How Will it Affect Your Money? show art The Big, Beautiful Bill has Passed. What is in it? How Will it Affect Your Money?

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There is a lot of confusing info regarding the Big Beautiful Bill.    Forget the noise or the politics. What are the facts on some of the key aspects?   No Tax on Tips: up to $25,000 of tip income is tax-free plus your standard deduction of $15,750 for singles, $31,500 for married filing jointly.    Social Security Tax: Social Security Administration estimates 88% of seniors will no longer pay taxes on Social Security benefits.     - $24,000: average Social Security benefit     - $15,750: standard deduction for singles     - ...

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Brigham Blackham Interview, host of the Levelin' Up Podcast show art Brigham Blackham Interview, host of the Levelin' Up Podcast

Your Personal Bank

Brigham Blackham empowers top leaders through the art of storytelling. With a background in teaching Mandarin and theater, he combines his expertise in communication and leadership to help entrepreneurs elevate their stories and drive impact through personal & professional development. As host of the Levelin' Up Podcast, Brigham focuses on building relationships that foster collaborative capitalism—unlocking growth through meaningful connections and shared success. He is a master connector to help you identify the ideal resources to take your life & business to the next...

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The stock market is moving up to 8-9% up and down daily. The volatility is stomach churning.
 
The primary concern is tariffs. It is uncertain if China will agree to a fair trade deal.
 
China exports five times more to the US than the US exports to China. Tariffs affect China far more than the US. They are at a significant disadvantage.
 
Globalist free trade proponents promised they following:
 
1. Free trade would lead to fair trade policies. Nations would follow the rules to remain trading partners.
2. Oppressive regimes would become more democratic.
3. Low income, unskilled workers would create a robust middle class worldwide due to free trade.
4. The US would lose manufacturing jobs but there would be plenty of opportunities in the new economy.
 
The globalist free trade advocates were horribly wrong.
 
1. China is famous for not following the rules, cheating, and stealing technology.
2. China is still communist and is more oppressive than a few decades ago.
3. Slave labor wages are still common around the world. A middle class does not exist in many countries.
4. Most Americans who lost manufacturing jobs never learned how to code. An entire region is known as the "Rust Belt".
 
The American people never voted for this. Globalist free trade was foisted on us by a class of self-proclaimed elites.
 
Independence is a founding principle of our country. A country that cannot produce what it needs is not independent.
 
America cannot produce many of the things it invented. We are no longer self-reliant. 
 
The globalist free trade advocates were so wrong it is surprising anyone still listens to them.
 
 
The top 10% own 88% of stocks in the US.
The next 40% own 12% of stocks.
The bottom 50% have debt.
 
Lower energy prices benefit everyone. Cheaper gas impacts most Americans far more than a higher stock market.
 

 

The Trump administration is changing decades of tariff policy. The transition will be volatile. If the current administration is successful, the long-term benefit for the US will be tremendous.

I believe we are in for a chaotic year and a bumpy economic ride this year. It would be wise to protect your assets. Diversify. Reduce your risk. Reduce your tax liability. Increase returns safely. Increase liquidity to take advantage of future opportunities.

 

This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

 

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years!

 

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

 

   - Guaranteed Lifetime Income is the highest in 40+ years. Some products offer up to 30% signing bonus. Other products offer up to 10% increased guaranteed lifetime income each year you defer.