A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature

Emily J. Judd, Jessica E. Tierney, Daniel J. Lunt, Isabel P. Montañez, Brian T. Huber, Scott L. Wing and Paul J. Valdes...See all authorsCopyright © 2024

 

The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works https://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse

 

This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceOnlineSeptember 20, 2024AcceptedJuly 25, 2024ReceivedAugust 21, 2023

 

Abstract

A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth system. Here, we present PhanDA, a reconstruction of GMST over the past 485 million years, generated by statistically integrating proxy data with climate model simulations. PhanDA exhibits a large range of GMST, spanning 11° to 36°C. Partitioning the reconstruction into climate states indicates that more time was spent in warmer rather than colder climates and reveals consistent latitudinal temperature gradients within each state. There is a strong correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and GMST, identifying CO2 as the dominant control on variations in Phanerozoic global climate and suggesting an apparent Earth system sensitivity of ~8°C.