The Real Estate News Brief: Another Big Interest Rate Hike, Record Pile of Uninvested Cash, House Hunters & Flood-Risk Data

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending September 24th, 2022... the Fed’s third big interest rate hike in a row, a record pile of uninvested cash, and the listing data that is changing house hunter choices.

Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.

Economic News

We begin with economic news from this past week, and a big interest rate hike by the Fed. The central bank has been getting more aggressive about tackling inflation, and hiked the Federal Funds rate by another three-quarters of a point. Fed officials also plan to continue hiking the funds rate until inflation recedes to the 2% level. They began raising it in March from a near zero level, and have now brought it to a range of 3 to 3.25%. Higher rates will make adjustable-rate loans more expensive. It will also slow the economy down, and reduce hiring, although the job market is still showing a lot of strength. (1)

Fed Chief Jerome Powell says it’s not clear whether the money tightening process will lead to a recession or how significant it might be. But Fed officials do expect to see higher levels of unemployment. They expect the jobless rate to rise to 4.4% next year. That’s .7% higher than it is now. (2) The latest weekly jobless report shows a slight rise in filings for the first time in five weeks. Initial claims were up 4,000 to 213,000, but that’s still a low number. (3)

Powell also talked about the need for a housing market correction. He says: “For the longer term, what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned, so house prices go up at a more reasonable pace and people can afford (to buy them).” But he doesn’t expect that process to be easy or short-lived. Senior economist of the National Association of Realtors, Nadia Evangelou, says that many homeowners won’t want to move because they have super low mortgage rates, and that will impact inventory which could push home prices even higher, instead of lower. (4)

Meantime, builders are trying to attract more buyers with lower prices, and more new homes. The Commerce Department reports that overall housing starts were up 12.2% in August after a 10.8% decline in July. Starts were up 18.5% for apartments, and 3.5% for single-family homes. Permits were down 10%.

Builder sentiment is also down, despite the increased activity. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, it fell to its lowest level in September since about 2014. It’s the ninth month in a row that builder confidence has fallen. Rising mortgage rates and supply chain disruptions are builders’ biggest concerns. (5)

Existing home sales were down again in August. NAR says they fell .4% for the month to an annual rate of 4.8 million homes. That’s the lowest number since May of 2020 when the pandemic shut everything down. Compared with last year, sales are down 19.9%. (6)

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates remained above the 6% level thist last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 27 basis points to 6.29%. The 15-year was up 23 points to 5.44%. (7) Mortgage rates have basically doubled since the beginning of the year, and even though they are low by historical standards, they have raised the monthly mortgage payment for a $400,000 loan from about $1,660 last year to about $2,470 this year. (8)

In other news making headlines...

Record Pile of Uninvested Capital

Venture capitalists are sitting on a record amount of uninvested capital. A report from Colliers shows that VC investors have about $290 billion dollars sitting on the sidelines, and that VC activity pulled back about 12% during the first half of this year. But it still remains higher than historical norms. (9)

The Center for Real Estate Technology & Innovation says that during the first half of this year, 26% of venture capital investments went into real estate technology, or about $13 billion. But that leaves plenty of cash on the table for future investment.

The Colliers analysis says: “There is no denying that VC investment is a key driver of commercial real estate demand. The states seeing the most VC dollars are California, New York, and Massachusetts.

Homebuyers Paying Attention to New Flood-Risk Data

New flood-risk data on listings could steer house hunters away from flood-prone areas. Redfin just conducted a three-month study with 17.5 million users on how flood-risk data impacts the home buying process. It found that users who looked at homes with a severe or extreme flood risk ended up bidding on homes with a moderate risk of flooding. Users who didn’t have that information were not impacted.(10)

Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather says the information will help users make more informed choices. He says: “Some will opt to move out of risky areas altogether, while others will stay put but invest in making their homes more resilient to disaster.” The information could also lead to a decline in home values in flood-prone areas.

Patagonia Founder Donates Company to Fight Climate Change

Climate change is also on the mind of the man who founded the Patagonia outdoor clothing company. Yvon Chouinard (Shinard) announced that he is transferring 100% of the company’s voting stock to Patagonia Purpose Trust. Profits that are not reinvested back into the company will be distributed as a dividend to the Holdfast Collective which is a nonprofit dedicated to fighting the environmental crisis. The annual payout is estimated at about $100 million.

Chouinard is 83 years old. He said in a press release: “It’s been a half-century since we began our experiment in responsible business. If we have any hope of a thriving planet 50 years from now, it demands all of us doing all we can with the resources we have.”

That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!

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Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.

Links:

1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-approves-third-large-interest-rate-hike-and-signals-more-before-year-end-11663783628?mod=mw_latestnews

2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-will-tolerate-a-recession-and-5-other-things-we-learned-from-powells-presser-11663804117?mod=federal-reserve

3 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-to-213-000-but-still-show-strong-labor-market-and-few-layoffs-11663850686?mod=mw_latestnews

4 -https://www.housingwire.com/articles/the-housing-market-correction-will-be-deep-and-ugly/

5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builders-say-housing-recession-shows-no-signs-of-abating-as-builder-sentiment-drops-further-11663596378?mod=economic-report

6-https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-seventh-straight-month-in-august-11663769406?mod=economic-report

7 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

8 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/09/22/mortgage-rates-jump-even-higher-after-fed-hike

9 -https://www.globest.com/2022/09/19/vcs-sit-on-a-record-pile-of-uninvested-capital/

10 -https://investors.redfin.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/790/homebuyers-with-access-to-flood-risk-data-bid-on-lower-risk

11 -https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/09/14/patagonia-yvon-chouinard-climate-change/