Doomberg: Separating Fact from Fiction

The head of the Doomberg team, maestros at deciphering the complex symphony of the financial world is our guest. The Doomberg team are well-known for their uncanny ability to recognize patterns before they emerge and connect the dots between topics you'd never think related. They've mastered the art of making the intricate realms of finance accessible. They have become, by far, the most popular Substack. Doomberg join us for a deep, deep dive into their most recent market insights, highlighting the less-than-obvious dualities, contradictions, impacts, and connections in the realm of financial markets.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:02:07] Doomberg, a small team with experience in the commodity sector launched Doomberg in 2021, now the most subscribed Substack, after pivoting from a consulting firm due to COVID-19. They now research and write 7 to 8 pieces a month with no strict deadlines.

[00:08:37] A framework for assessing scientific breakthroughs, focusing e.g. on a claimed room temperature superconductor. It emphasizes the importance of considering the credibility of those involved, where the research is published, the scientific process, the context of previous claims, and what to expect next. Ultimately, the text expresses deep skepticism and the need for more evidence.

[00:19:37] The potential benefits of a technical singularity, including advancements in grid rewiring, quantum computing, and high-tech electronics. It highlights the difficulty in predicting the specific inventions that could arise and the significant impact it would have.

[00:24:59] Doomberg discusses the relationship between energy, order, and standard of living. He argues that higher energy density leads to economic prosperity and that restrictions on fossil fuel consumption merely shift the privilege. The global south's consumption of fossil fuels is seen as predictable and sustainable within the author's framework.

[00:30:36] The progressive environmental left opposes nuclear power and carbon capture for reasons related to their desire for fewer humans (Malthusians) and resource conservation. They want less energy and advocate for intermittent renewables. Their intentions are not about carbon emissions.

[00:39:29] In periods of energy abundance, currencies are influenced by manufacturing performance and value-added capabilities. In energy scarcity, energy becomes the key resource, affecting currency strength. During shortages, energy producers profit from price increases. The understanding of energy's significance reveals the less relevance of currency fluctuations. A mild winter in 2022 shifted to energy abundance, causing coal, natural gas, and oil prices to drop, impacting currencies. Russia's currency weakens during surplus energy periods. Energy positioning explains most currency moves during scarcity, but not during abundance. Currency serves as a means to store, transport, and utilize energy.

[00:45:21] Ontario's Green Energy Act caused government waste and enriched insiders, costing taxpayers billions. In 2018, the ruling liberal party was ousted, and the act was revoked. Ontario now focuses on nuclear energy.

[00:52:29] Canada, UAE, and Japan are embracing nuclear power, while most of Europe except Germany is realizing its importance. Pain and political change are necessary for progress.

[01:00:06] Traditional media outlets claim both that drought relief disproves climate change and that climate volatility is the cause.

[01:04:11] The story of Tulare Lake. A California tribe's devastated loss when their lake was drained by dams and diversions, is now seen as a climate crisis causing flooding. The reclaimed lake is viewed as both a salvation and a food growing paradise lost due to climate change.

[01:08:16] The book "The New Dealers War" is recommended and highlights China's dominance in key industries and the need for caution in foreign engagements.

[01:14:26] The US lacks knowledge, China controls Tellurium supply in solar industry.

[01:20:00] Focus on leadership at home, support US prosperity, influence policy, cautious about China, not worried about physical safety. US political system intact despite partisan bickering.

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Where to find Doomberg:

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Doomberg - Substack

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Where to find the Raise Your Average crew:

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ReSolve Asset Management

ReSolve Asset Management Blog

Mike Philbrick on Linkedin

Rodrigo Gordillo on Linkedin

Adam Butler on Linkedin

Pierre Daillie on Linkedin

Joseph Lamanna on Linkedin

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