35 - Peter Hase on LLM Beliefs and Easy-to-Hard Generalization
AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Release Date: 08/24/2024
AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Typically this podcast talks about how to avert destruction from AI. But what would it take to ensure AI promotes human flourishing as well as it can? Is alignment to individuals enough, and if not, where do we go form here? In this episode, I talk with Joel Lehman about these questions. Patreon: Ko-fi: Transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 01:12 - Why aligned AI might not be enough 04:05 - Positive visions of AI 08:27 - Improving recommendation systems Links: Why Greatness Cannot...
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Suppose we're worried about AIs engaging in long-term plans that they don't tell us about. If we were to peek inside their brains, what should we look for to check whether this was happening? In this episode Adrià Garriga-Alonso talks about his work trying to answer this question. Patreon: Ko-fi: Transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 01:04 - The Alignment Workshop 02:49 - How to detect scheming AIs 05:29 - Sokoban-solving networks taking time to think 12:18 - Model organisms of long-term...
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AI researchers often complain about the poor coverage of their work in the news media. But why is this happening, and how can it be fixed? In this episode, I speak with Shakeel Hashim about the resource constraints facing AI journalism, the disconnect between journalists' and AI researchers' views on transformative AI, and efforts to improve the state of AI journalism, such as Tarbell and Shakeel's newsletter, Transformer. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 01:31 -...
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Lots of people in the AI safety space worry about models being able to make deliberate, multi-step plans. But can we already see this in existing neural nets? In this episode, I talk with Erik Jenner about his work looking at internal look-ahead within chess-playing neural networks. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 00:57 - How chess neural nets look into the future 04:29 - The dataset and basic methodology 05:23 - Testing for branching futures? 07:57 - Which...
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The 'model organisms of misalignment' line of research creates AI models that exhibit various types of misalignment, and studies them to try to understand how the misalignment occurs and whether it can be somehow removed. In this episode, Evan Hubinger talks about two papers he's worked on at Anthropic under this agenda: "Sleeper Agents" and "Sycophancy to Subterfuge". Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 0:00:36 - Model organisms and stress-testing 0:07:38 - Sleeper Agents 0:22:32 - Do 'sleeper agents' properly model deceptive alignment? 0:38:32 -...
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You may have heard of singular learning theory, and its "local learning coefficient", or LLC - but have you heard of the refined LLC? In this episode, I chat with Jesse Hoogland about his work on SLT, and using the refined LLC to find a new circuit in language models. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 00:34 - About Jesse 01:49 - The Alignment Workshop 02:31 - About Timaeus 05:25 - SLT that isn't developmental interpretability 10:41 - The refined local...
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Road lines, street lights, and licence plates are examples of infrastructure used to ensure that roads operate smoothly. In this episode, Alan Chan talks about using similar interventions to help avoid bad outcomes from the deployment of AI agents. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 01:02 - How the Alignment Workshop is 01:32 - Agent infrastructure 04:57 - Why agent infrastructure 07:54 - A trichotomy of agent infrastructure 13:59 - Agent IDs 18:17 - Agent channels...
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Do language models understand the causal structure of the world, or do they merely note correlations? And what happens when you build a big AI society out of them? In this brief episode, recorded at the Bay Area Alignment Workshop, I chat with Zhijing Jin about her research on these questions. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: FAR.AI: FAR.AI on X (aka Twitter): FAR.AI on YouTube: The Alignment Workshop: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 00:35 - How the Alignment Workshop is 00:47 - How Zhijing got interested in causality and natural language processing 03:14 - Causality and...
info_outlineAXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Epoch AI is the premier organization that tracks the trajectory of AI - how much compute is used, the role of algorithmic improvements, the growth in data used, and when the above trends might hit an end. In this episode, I speak with the director of Epoch AI, Jaime Sevilla, about how compute, data, and algorithmic improvements are impacting AI, and whether continuing to scale can get us AGI. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 0:00:38 - The pace of AI progress 0:07:49 - How Epoch AI tracks AI compute 0:11:44 - Why does AI compute grow so smoothly?...
info_outlineAXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Sometimes, people talk about transformers as having "world models" as a result of being trained to predict text data on the internet. But what does this even mean? In this episode, I talk with Adam Shai and Paul Riechers about their work applying computational mechanics, a sub-field of physics studying how to predict random processes, to neural networks. Patreon: Ko-fi: The transcript: Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 0:00:42 - What computational mechanics is 0:29:49 - Computational mechanics vs other approaches 0:36:16 - What world models are 0:48:41 - Fractals 0:57:43 - How the...
info_outlineHow do we figure out what large language models believe? In fact, do they even have beliefs? Do those beliefs have locations, and if so, can we edit those locations to change the beliefs? Also, how are we going to get AI to perform tasks so hard that we can't figure out if they succeeded at them? In this episode, I chat with Peter Hase about his research into these questions.
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/axrpodcast
Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/axrpodcast
The transcript: https://axrp.net/episode/2024/08/24/episode-35-peter-hase-llm-beliefs-easy-to-hard-generalization.html
Topics we discuss, and timestamps:
0:00:36 - NLP and interpretability
0:10:20 - Interpretability lessons
0:32:22 - Belief interpretability
1:00:12 - Localizing and editing models' beliefs
1:19:18 - Beliefs beyond language models
1:27:21 - Easy-to-hard generalization
1:47:16 - What do easy-to-hard results tell us?
1:57:33 - Easy-to-hard vs weak-to-strong
2:03:50 - Different notions of hardness
2:13:01 - Easy-to-hard vs weak-to-strong, round 2
2:15:39 - Following Peter's work
Peter on Twitter: https://x.com/peterbhase
Peter's papers:
Foundational Challenges in Assuring Alignment and Safety of Large Language Models: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.09932
Do Language Models Have Beliefs? Methods for Detecting, Updating, and Visualizing Model Beliefs: https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.13654
Does Localization Inform Editing? Surprising Differences in Causality-Based Localization vs. Knowledge Editing in Language Models: https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.04213
Are Language Models Rational? The Case of Coherence Norms and Belief Revision: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03442
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Easy Training Data for Hard Tasks: https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.06751
Other links:
Toy Models of Superposition: https://transformer-circuits.pub/2022/toy_model/index.html
Interpretability Beyond Feature Attribution: Quantitative Testing with Concept Activation Vectors (TCAV): https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.11279
Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT (aka the ROME paper): https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05262
Of nonlinearity and commutativity in BERT: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.04547
Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.03341
Editing a classifier by rewriting its prediction rules: https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.01008
Discovering Latent Knowledge Without Supervision (aka the Collin Burns CCS paper): https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.03827
Weak-to-Strong Generalization: Eliciting Strong Capabilities With Weak Supervision: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.09390
Concrete problems in AI safety: https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.06565
Rissanen Data Analysis: Examining Dataset Characteristics via Description Length: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03872
Episode art by Hamish Doodles: hamishdoodles.com