Special Episode: Unpacking the US-India-Russia Tariff Triangle
Release Date: 08/14/2025
Columbia Energy Exchange
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The ten years since the Paris Agreement was signed at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP 21, have been the ten hottest years on record. And the outcome that the Paris Agreement sought — limiting global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — is now widely considered unattainable. There are other hurdles as well. Many nations have not submitted climate action plans, or nationally determined contributions, to the UN. And President Trump says he plans to re-withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. Still, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change marches on....
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Last week, President Trump announced that he was imposing significant new sanctions on Russia. It’s an effort to cut off revenue Russia needs for its war in Ukraine. This comes at a time when Russia’s oil industry is also under pressure from intensifying Ukrainian attacks on refineries, crude pipelines, and export terminals. It’s also happening as producers have been ramping up output amid signs of cooling demand growth. Yet the sanctions could still bite. Especially given that the Treasury sanctions announcement came with the explicit warning that secondary sanctions—targeting...
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Energy has long been used as a weapon. The United Kingdom blocked oil exports to Germany during World War I. Hitler’s fall was due in part to losing access to oilfields in the Caucasus. And the most recent example: the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which shocked the global economy. During the following fifty years, the energy weapon largely receded from the geopolitical stage, and in many countries energy security started to feel like a given. But developments including Russia's weaponization of natural gas against Europe, China's restrictions on critical minerals, and growing trade tensions...
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Trade tensions between the US and China have hit a new high mark. Last week, after China announced plans to ratchet up its export controls of some rare-earths and magnets with strategic uses, President Trump threatened to retaliate with 100% tariffs, which would go into effect on November 1 or sooner. But the competition between these two world powers goes far beyond trade disputes and tariffs. It's a contest between fundamentally different approaches to governance, technology, and economic development. China, of course, dominates critical supply chains for clean energy technologies. But many...
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Last year, an energy permitting reform bill sponsored by Senators Joe Manchin and John Barrasso passed out of committee but failed to gain full support in the US Senate. Since then, rising energy costs and infrastructure backlogs have only heightened pressure on Congress to take another run at reforming the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). As a result, momentum behind permitting reform is building again. Several legislative efforts are underway, most notably the bipartisan SPEED Act, which would change NEPA requirements in order to streamline the permitting process. It would also set...
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Following the rollback of key climate provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, the debate over America's energy future is increasingly contentious. The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has eliminated, or at least cobbled, many of the clean energy incentives that were centerpieces of Biden-era climate policy. This week, climate policymakers, business leaders, investors, and advocates are converging in New York City for Climate Week. With so much happening and many questions around the pace of the energy transition, it’s a crucial moment in US energy policy. So how are...
info_outlineAfter President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi met in the White House back in February, US-India relations appeared to be on solid ground. Back then, Trump was still confident he could broker a quick resolution in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Then, last week, the Trump administration said that if India continues to import Russian oil, the US will double tariffs on Indian goods, starting August 27. This move threatens to undermine relations between the US and India — and it could impact more than India’s energy imports. The dispute is forcing bigger questions about India’s approach to foreign policy and the country’s long-standing policy of strategic autonomy.
So will India bow to US pressure and reduce its Russian energy imports? Or will India continue to import a significant amount of oil from Russia? And what does all of this mean for global energy markets and the use of coercive economic tools like tariffs or sanctions in the years ahead?
In this special episode of Columbia Energy Exchange, Jason speaks with Richard Nephew, Tatiana Mitrova, and Shayak Sengupta about this latest development in President Trump’s trade war.
Richard Nephew is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and former US Deputy Special Envoy for Iran, where he played key roles in economic sanctions policy.
Tatiana Mitrova is a global fellow at CGEP and former deputy director general of the National Energy Security Fund in Moscow. She brings deep expertise on Russian energy markets.
Shayak Sengupta is a senior research associate at CGEP and leads its India program. He’s an expert in South Asian energy policy and US-India relations.
Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O’Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by James Rowlands.