ARGS Winter 2025 - Powered by AI

A further raft of recent aircraft orders illustrates there is no let-up in airlines positioning themselves to meet long-term travel demand.
To some extent it is a product of the timelines of manufacturer backlogs, which make securing fresh narrowbody capacity before the next decade challenging, and even more so for widebodies.
But while the rationale for the bulk of orders is now around securing delivery slots into the 2030s, there was a nuance to some of the eye-catching deals unveiled during November’s Dubai Airshow.

Take Emirates' follow-on order for 65 more Boeing 777-9s. On the one hand this marks a timely recommitment to a much-delayed programme – Boeing having recently further pushed back first deliveries into 2027. But there is also a longer game. Emirates has not given up on persuading the manufacturer to build a larger version – backing a Boeing ‘feasibility study’ for a stretched 777-10. This would offer a future aircraft sized at least one step closer to the Airbus A380s, a backbone of its fleet today.

By contrast the order from fellow UAE carrier Etihad Airways, which signed for Airbus A330-900s alongside a further batch of A350s, has a nearer-term focus. The airline’s move for A330s was driven by a desire to get hold of aircraft sooner. It is working with Avolon to take delivery of some of these aircraft from 2027 – securing some of the nearest delivery slots available. For Etihad Chief Executive Antonoaldo Neves the addition of the A330neos is not about a change in network strategy. Rather, he noted that the timing and performance will enable the carrier to release aircraft to other missions.

But for most airlines, the driving factor of orders is repeat business and building out future deliveries to meet long-term growth. Kazakhstan airline group Air Astana, for example, having simplified its fleet almost entirely around A321neo jets and Boeing 787s, doubled down by placing follow-on commitments for both types in November to fuel growth in the next decade.

What also remains clear is the geographic direction of travel. While all airlines are caught in the rush to secure slots, recent sizeable orders are skewed towards growth and emerging markets.
A prime case is the Philippines, where flag carrier Philippine Airlines and low-cost unit Cebu Pacific are growing sharply, as the respective chief executives outlined at Routes World in October. Growth for both carriers will be further fuelled by a planned new hub airport for the country’s capital Manila which could eventually handle 200 million passengers.

The growth potential is underlined by Association of Asia Pacific Airilnes Director General Subhas Menon, who while flagging current challenges in the market, points to the strong fundamentals driving long-term growth in the region.