What should regulators do about the risks to mid-sized banks?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
Release Date: 06/06/2024
Why does the US have a trade deficit?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
The U.S. trade deficit has long been a source of political consternation, but it has come to the forefront in recent weeks. Just a few months into Donald Trump’s second term, he has made the trade deficit a key target of his aggressive tariff policies. On the day that President Trump announced a new, sweeping round of tariffs on all U.S. trade partners, Brookings Senior Fellow Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti was joined by Maurice Obstfeld of the Peterson Institute for International Economics to discuss Obstfeld’s new paper, “The U.S. Trade Deficit: Myths and Realities.” On this episode of...
info_outline
How will the Federal Reserve revise its monetary policy framework in 2025?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
The Federal Reserve’s “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy”—commonly referred to as its monetary policy framework—is composed of guiding principles the central bank uses in setting and communicating policy. Since the Fed last updated this framework in 2020, the global economy has faced unique challenges: COVID-19 shutdowns, widespread supply chain issues, and multiple global wars. In 2025, the Fed Board will be tasked with reviewing the framework, identifying what has worked well and what hasn’t, and updating it accordingly. On this episode of the Brookings...
info_outline
How will the clean energy transition affect wages?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
The clean energy transition has quietly pushed ahead in recent decades, with solar and wind energy accounting for almost 15% of total U.S. energy production in February 2024. The benefits of this transition on climate change have been celebrated, but less acknowledged have been the potential economic benefits. In a new paper, “The economic impacts of clean power,” Costas Arkolakis and Conor Walsh explain how cheaper electricity resulting from this transition could lead to a 2-3% increase in national wages. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Walsh discusses his...
info_outline
How does Congress react to budget deficit projections?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
Fiscal deficit projections are used by policymakers to understand the trajectory of U.S. debt. Between 1984 and 2003, Congress was responsive to these projections, raising taxes and cutting spending when projections showed that the deficit would grow. However, since 2004, fiscal policy has ceased being responsive to debt projections regardless of the party in power. In a new paper, “Robust Fiscal Stabilization,” Alan Auerbach and Danny Yagan of the University of California, Berkeley, quantify this phenomenon by comparing fiscal legislation across the two periods. On this episode, Auerbach...
info_outline
What is the value of dynamic scoring for legislators?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
When Congress considers legislation, nonpartisan agencies provide estimates of the law’s potential economic effects to policymakers, a process known as “scoring.” In recent decades, analysts at the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation have developed models that incorporate complex feedback effects, going beyond conventional scoring techniques. These “dynamic scoring” methods can produce significantly different estimates of a law’s economic impact, but there are tradeoffs in applying them in different policy areas. On this episode Doug Elmendorf and Glenn...
info_outline
What role should sanctions play in foreign policy? The case of Russia.
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
Since 2022, Western nations have put a number of sanctions on Russia in response to its war in Ukraine. Policymakers and pundits have debated the efficacy of these measures, but this debate is belied by a deeper question: what does it mean for sanctions to “work”? In new BPEA research, Oleg Itskhoki of Harvard and Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics explore fundamental questions of the theory and practice of sanctions in the Russia context. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Ben Harris, director of Economic Studies at Brookings,...
info_outline
What is the efficient rate of unemployment?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
The full-employment rate of unemployment may seem like a contradiction, but in fact, economists have long understood that some unemployment is necessary. In their new paper, Pascal Michaillat of UC Santa Cruz and Saez of the University of California, Berkeley present a new formula for identifying the efficient rate of unemployment in the U.S. and find that the labor market has been inefficiently slack for most of the last century. In this episode, Michaillat discusses the paper and potential impacts on macroeconomic theory and policy with Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner. The Brookings...
info_outline
Did behavioral changes reduce COVID-19 deaths?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
As COVID-19 swept across the globe, many nations struggled to define a cohesive public health strategy to prevent the spread of the disease. However, in spite of the lack of a clear plan, improvised strategies of behavioral changes—e.g., masking, social distancing—slowed transmission until a vaccine could be developed. The new BPEA paper, “The impact of vaccines and behaviors on U.S. cumulative deaths from COVID-19,” estimates that the ad hoc strategy prevented close to 800,000 deaths. On this episode, epidemiologist and paper co-author Stephen Kissler talks with Brookings Senior...
info_outline
What should regulators do about the risks to mid-sized banks?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
The failure of three mid-sized banks in March 2023—three of the four largest bank failures in history—shook financial markets and could’ve spread to other banks if regulators hadn’t stepped in. Two on-going trends in finance contributed to these failures: an increase in uninsured deposits and the migration of business lending to non-banks. In a new paper, “The evolution of banking in the 21st century,” a group of Harvard researchers looked at regulations that could mitigate risks going forward as well as the potential implications for mergers and acquisitions among mid-sized banks....
info_outline
What global factors could make inflation less stable?
Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity
Most advanced economies enjoyed a long period of low, stable inflation prior to 2021, with inflation in the U.S. actually running below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for much of the 2010s. This stability was driven in part by factors external to monetary policy, including downward price and wage pressures from globalization and de-unionization. However, the authors of a new BPEA paper, “Changing central bank pressures and inflation,” argue that emerging trends may present headwinds to central banks trying to keep inflation steady. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on...
info_outlineThe failure of three mid-sized banks in March 2023—three of the four largest bank failures in history—shook financial markets and could’ve spread to other banks if regulators hadn’t stepped in. Two on-going trends in finance contributed to these failures: an increase in uninsured deposits and the migration of business lending to non-banks. In a new paper, “The evolution of banking in the 21st century,” a group of Harvard researchers looked at regulations that could mitigate risks going forward as well as the potential implications for mergers and acquisitions among mid-sized banks. David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, hears from two of the authors, Samuel Hanson and Daniel Tarullo, on their findings in this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity.
The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].