AI Policy & Hostage Recovery with the Former Deputy Assistant to the President
Release Date: 11/18/2025
25 Years of the US-China Commission: Taiwan, Tech Competition, and Over-the-Horizon Risks
Horns of a Dilemma
Twenty-five years after its founding, how has the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission shaped American strategic policy? In this episode, we feature a panel discussion examining the evolution of major power competition. sits down with Randall Schriver (Chairman of the Board, Institute for Indo-Pacific Security) and Mike Kuiken (Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution and USCC Commissioner) to assess the shifting geopolitical landscape. The guests argue that the strategic environment has transitioned from early debates over human rights and market access to intense...
info_outline
Iran's Nuclear Tightrope: Between Power and Peril
Horns of a Dilemma
As the United States and Iran negotiate an end to recent hostilities, the strategic implications of Tehran's nuclear latency are more urgent than ever. In this episode of our podcast, Eric Brewer unpacks the realities of Iran as a nuclear threshold state. He argues that maintaining a threshold capability forces Tehran to walk a dangerous tightrope, balancing the perceived deterrence of adversaries against the severe peril of military escalation. The conversation offers a rigorous assessment of how nuclear latency alters conflict dynamics, shapes modern statecraft, and complicates regional...
info_outline
New Tech, Old Traps: The Persistent Pitfalls in Military Innovation
Horns of a Dilemma
National security scholar Herbert S. Lin joins us to discuss his latest TNSR article, Lin argues that political incentives and cognitive traps like the "fallacy of the last move" often blind planners to the complex, systemic realities of new capabilities. He also maps out the crucial distinction between artifactual hardware and architectural technologies like AI. Hosts: and Producer:
info_outline
The Balance of Control and Vulnerability: Cyber and Nuclear Risks
Horns of a Dilemma
Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider joins us to discuss her article, Moving beyond Hollywood analogies and pop-culture fears, Schneider argues that common understandings of how cyber operations impact nuclear stability are often misguided. Throughout the conversation, she unpacks three specific pathways to escalation—deliberate, inadvertent, and accidental—and applies percolation theory to explain how the structure of nuclear networks dictates their vulnerability. Schneider explores the critical trade-offs between centralization, efficiency, and resilience, warning that as intelligence, surveillance,...
info_outline
Challenges and Opportunities for AI in Military Systems
Horns of a Dilemma
Michael Horowitz discusses his recent TNSR article, We tackle misconceptions about AI, how militaries have long used algorithms, and why use cases and data matter—especially when nuclear applications rely on simulated data. He examines human-machine teaming, automation bias and algorithm aversion, and risks from faster, “machine-speed” conflict, particularly for states with unstable second-strike capabilities. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning
info_outline
Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine
Horns of a Dilemma
Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his . He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and organizational incentives, producing hype with little accountability. We discuss drones, Russia’s failure to gain air superiority, and four case studies: hypersonic-associated missiles (Kinzhal, Tsirkon) intercepted by Patriot systems, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile’s quick normalization after alarmist reactions, and Russia’s effective UMPK glide bomb kits. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan...
info_outline
Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI
Horns of a Dilemma
Political psychologist Rose McDermott discusses on how systematic judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under emerging technologies like AI. McDermott explains Kahneman’s Type 1 (fast, intuitive) versus Type 2 (slow, analytical) thinking and how four biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—can distort leaders’ crisis decisions, probability judgments, and security trade-offs. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning
info_outline
Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin
Horns of a Dilemma
Francis J. Gavin, chair of the TNSR editorial board, joins us to discuss his article, Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that “strategic stability” is often invoked without clear definition. He highlights tensions between mutual vulnerability and US extended deterrence and nonproliferation goals, and describes contradictions between Schelling’s writings on arms control and coercion. Gavin critiques simplified historical lessons about surprise attack and inadvertent war shaping stability theory, traces how...
info_outline
Strategic Stability in a Rapidly Changing World
Horns of a Dilemma
Harold Trinkunas, the Deputy Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, and a senior research scholar at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, recently helped assemble our special issue on emerging technologies and strategic stability. In this episode, he previews the issue by explaining how Cold War deterrence assumptions rooted in a bilateral US–Soviet relationship no longer hold amid more nuclear-armed actors, wider access to AI, cyber, hypersonics, and the possibility that these tools can threaten second-strike forces or...
info_outline
A Dystopian Take on Rising Authoritarianism and Resistance
Horns of a Dilemma
Melissa Chan joins to discuss her career reporting across Asia and why she pivoted from journalism to co-creating the graphic novel with activist-artist Badiucao. We discuss the book’s visual style (Chinese watercolor influences, Frank Miller’s Sin City palette, and manga elements), the subversive Mao-derived title, and a near-future plot spanning Hong Kong to a 2035 war over Taiwan amid surveillance, drones, and AI. Chan describes choices around depicting resistance, representation, and hidden “Easter eggs,” and reflects on the book’s strong reception. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut...
info_outlineDr. Joshua Geltzer, former Deputy Assistant to the President and Legal Advisor to the National Security Council, shares his extensive experience on two crucial topics: artificial intelligence in national security and the evolving policies surrounding hostage recovery. He offers an in-depth look into both the potential and challenges of AI and the heart-wrenching yet vital efforts in recovering American hostages and detainees.