Full-Time vs Part-Time: A Shifting US Employment Picture
Deep Economic Thoughts
In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities. For more research highlights, please visit: Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs,...
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China's Overall Exports Rose 8% In April, Even As Exports To US Fell 21%
Deep Economic Thoughts
Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US. For more research highlights, please visit: Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display,...
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USD Woes: A Historical Perspective on Weak USD & Global Stock Markets
Deep Economic Thoughts
Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, discusses the historical relationship dynamic demonstrated by a falling US Dollar value and the resulting impact on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. Specifically, he focuses on the decade from 2005 to 2015, which was marked by the Great Financial Crisis and a USD value that oscillated wildly from -15% to +19%. For details on the Research Highlight discusseed in this podcast visit, For more general information, please visit: Copyright ©2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment...
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Radio Interview KABC 790AM - March 8, 2025
Deep Economic Thoughts
Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview. Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT. For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright ©2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss...
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CA Senator Josh Newman & Ivan Illan on The Conversation w/ Bruce Cook (Radio Replay)
Deep Economic Thoughts
Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education. (Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA) For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss...
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Same Economic Outcomes Decades Apart: 1970s & 2020s
Deep Economic Thoughts
In preparing for my September 2024 article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy. Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at: For more information, please visit: Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs,...
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Are Stocks Cheap Yet? Refer To The Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield For Perspective
Deep Economic Thoughts
As discussed in detail last summer (see and ), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards equities or away from them. Recall that Earnings Yield is equal to Earnings Per Share divided by its Stock Share Price. By simply inverting the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio, you attain the Earnings Yield, which standardizes a stock's attractiveness as a cash flow instrument (typically stocks are bought for capital growth...
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High Yield or Small Caps, Which Market Is Assessing Forward-Looking Risk Better?
Deep Economic Thoughts
In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at , explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years have not held this relationship. Ivan examines what may be driving this valuation differential, and what that may mean for risk assessment on a forward-looking basis. For more information on this subject, please visit the charts referenced in this...
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Is The A.I. Bubble Bursting?
Deep Economic Thoughts
The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the next 10 years. For more information on this Working Paper, please visit NBER at: For more information on AWAIM®, please visit: Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®
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Implications For Protracted Yield Curve Inversion
Deep Economic Thoughts
For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketplace participants. To view the companion chart to this episode, please visit: For more information on our economic outlook or to submit your questions, please visit: Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.
info_outlineFor roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketplace participants.
To view the companion chart to this episode, please visit: alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-05-01-2024
For more information on our economic outlook or to submit your questions, please visit: alignewealth.com
Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.