JCO Article Insights: Double Hit Myeloma Correlates With Adverse Patient Outcome

In this JCO Article Insights episode, host Michael Hughes summarizes "Co-Occurrence of Cytogenetic Abnormalities and High-Risk Disease in Newly Diagnosed and Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma" by Kaiser et al, published February 18, 2025, followed by an interview with JCO Associate Editor Suzanne Lentzsch.

Transcript

Michael Hughes: Welcome to this episode of JCO Article Insights. This is Michael Hughes, JCO's editorial fellow. Today I have the privilege and pleasure of interviewing Dr. Suzanne Lentzsch on the “Co-Occurrence of Cytogenetic Abnormalities and High-Risk Disease in Newly Diagnosed and Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma” by Dr. Kaiser and colleagues.

At the time of this recording, our guest has disclosures that will be linked in the transcript.

The urge to identify patients with aggressive disease, which is the first step in any effort to provide personalized medical care, is intuitive to physicians today. Multiple myeloma patients have experienced heterogeneous outcomes since we first started characterizing the disease. Some patients live for decades after treatment. Some, irrespective of treatment administered, exhibit rapidly relapsing disease. We term this ‘high-risk myeloma’.

The Durie-Salmon Risk Stratification System, introduced in 1975, was the first formal effort to identify those patients with aggressive, high-risk myeloma. However, the introduction of novel approaches in therapeutic agents—autologous stem cell transplantation with melphalan conditioning, proteasome inhibitors like bortezomib, or immunomodulatory drugs like lenalidomide—rendered the Durie-Salmon system a less precise predictor of outcomes.

The International Staging System in 2005, predicated upon the burden of disease as measured by beta-2 microglobulin and serum albumin, was the second attempt at identifying high-risk myeloma. It was eventually supplanted by the Revised International Staging System (RISS) in 2015, which incorporated novel clinical and cytogenetic markers and remains the primary way physicians think about the risk of progression or relapse in multiple myeloma.

Much attention has been focused on the canonically high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities in myeloma, typically identified by fluorescence in situ hybridization: translocation t(4;14), translocation t(14;16), translocation t(14;20), and deletion of 17p. Much attention also has been focused on the fact that intermediate-risk disease, as defined by the RISS, has been shown to be a heterogeneous subgroup in terms of survival outcomes. The RISS underwent revision in 2022 to account for such heterogeneity and has become the R2-ISS, published here in the Journal of Clinical Oncology first in 2022. Translocations t(14;16) and t(14;20) were removed, and gain or amplification of 1q was added. Such revisions to core parts of a modern risk-stratification system reflect the fact that myeloma right now is in flux, both in treatment paradigms and risk-stratification systems.

The field in recent years has undergone numerous remarkable changes, from the advent of anti-CD38 agents to the introduction of cellular and bispecific therapies, to the very technology we use to investigate genetic lesions. The major issue is that we're seeing numerous trials using different criteria for the definition of high-risk multiple myeloma. This is a burgeoning problem and speaks very much now to a critical need for an effort to consolidate all these criteria on at least cytogenetic lesions as we move into an era of response-adapted treatment strategies.

The excellent article by Kaiser and colleagues, published in the February 2024 edition of the JCO, does just that in a far-ranging meta-analysis of data from 24 prospective therapeutic trials. All 24 trials were phase II or III randomized controlled trials for newly diagnosed and relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. The paper takes a federated analysis approach: participants provided summaries and performed prespecified uniform analyses. The high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities examined were translocation t(4;14), gain or amplification of 1q, deletion of 17p, and translocation t(14;16), if included in the original trials. All of these were collected into zero, single, or double-hit categories, not unlike the system currently present in diffuse large B-cell lymphomas. The outcomes studied were progression-free survival and overall survival, with these analyses adhering to modified ITT principles.

The authors also performed prespecified subgroup analyses in the following: transplant-eligible newly diagnosed myeloma, transplant non-ineligible newly diagnosed myeloma, and relapsed/refractory myeloma. They, in addition, described heterogeneity by the I² statistic, which, if above 50%, denotes substantial heterogeneity by the Cochrane Review Handbook, and otherwise performed sensitivity analyses and assessed bias to confirm the robustness of their results.

In terms of those results, looking at the data collected, there was an appropriate spread of anti-CD38-containing and non-containing trials. 7,724 patients were evaluable of a total 13,926 enrolled in those 24 trials: 4,106 from nine trials in transplant-eligible myeloma, 1,816 from seven trials in transplant non-ineligible myeloma, and 1,802 from eight trials in relapsed/refractory disease. ISS stage for all patients was relatively evenly spread: stage I, 34.5%; stage II, 37%; stage III, 24%. In terms of high-risk cytogenetic lesions, double-hit disease was present in 13.8% of patients, and single-hit disease was present in 37.4%.

In terms of outcomes, Kaiser and colleagues found a consistent separation in survival outcomes when the cohort was stratified by the number of high-risk cytogenetic lesions present. For PFS, the hazard ratio was for double-hit 2.28, for single-hit 1.51, without significant heterogeneity. For overall survival, the hazard ratio was for double-hit disease 2.94, single-hit disease 1.69, without significant heterogeneity except in patients with double-hit disease at 56.5%. By clinical subgroups, hazard ratios remained pretty consistent with the overall cohort analysis. In transplant-eligible newly diagnosed myeloma, the hazard ratio for progression is 2.53, overall survival 4.17. For transplant non-ineligible, 1.97 progression, 2.31 mortality. Relapsed/refractory disease progression 2.05, overall mortality 2.21, without significant heterogeneity.

Of trials which started recruitment since 2015, that is to say, since daratumumab was FDA approved and thus since an anti-CD38 agent was incorporated into these regimens, analysis revealed the same results, with double-hit myeloma still experiencing worse survival by far of the three categories analyzed. Risk of bias overall was low by advanced statistical analysis. In terms of subgroup analysis, double-hit results for transplant-eligible newly diagnosed myeloma may have been skewed by smaller study effects, where the upper bound of the estimated hazard ratio for mortality reached into the 15 to 20 range.

In conclusion, from a massive amount of data comes a very elegant way to think about the role certain cytogenetic abnormalities play in multiple myeloma. A simple number of lesions - zero, one, or at least two - can risk-stratify. This is a powerful new prognostic biomarker candidate and, somewhat soberingly, also may confirm, or at least suggests, that anti-CD38 agents are unable to overcome the deleterious impact of certain biologic characteristics of myeloma.

Where do we go from here? This certainly needs further a priori prospective validation. This did not include cellular therapies. The very scale at which this risk-stratification system operates, agnostic to specific genetic lesion, let alone point mutations, lends itself also to further exploration. And to discuss this piece further, we welcome the one and only Dr. Suzanne Lentzsch to the episode. Dr. Lentzsch serves as an associate editor for JCO and is a world-renowned leader at the bleeding edge of plasma cell dyscrasia research.

Dr. Lentzsch, there are several new investigations which suggest that translocation t(4;14), for example, is itself a heterogeneous collection of patients. There are other studies which suggest that point mutations in oncogenes like TP53, which were not assessed in Kaiser et al., carry substantial detrimental impact. Is this classification system - no-hit, single-hit, double-hit - too broad a look at tumor genetics? And how do you think we will end up incorporating ever more detailed investigations into the genetics of multiple myeloma moving forward?

Dr. Suzanne Lentzsch: Michael, first of all, excellent presentation of that very important trial. Great summary. And of course, it's a pleasure to be here with JCO and with you to discuss that manuscript.

Let me go back a little bit to high-risk multiple myeloma. I think over the last years, we had a lot of information on what is high-risk multiple myeloma, and I just want to mention a couple of things, that we separate not only cytogenetically high-risk multiple myeloma, we also have functional high-risk multiple myeloma, with an early relapse after transplant, within 12 months, or two years after start of treatment for the non transplant patients, which is difficult to assess because you cannot decide whether this is a high-risk patient before you start treatment. You only know that in retrospective. Other forms of high-risk: extramedullary disease, circulating tumor cells/plasma cell dyscrasia, patients who never achieve MRD positivity, extramedullary multiple myeloma, or even age and frailty is a high risk for our patients. Then we have gene expression and gene sequencing. So there is so much information currently to really assess what is high-risk multiple myeloma, that is very difficult to find common ground and establish something for future clinical trials.

So what Dr. Kaiser did was really to develop a very elegant system with information we should all have. He used four factors: translocation t(14;16), t(4;14), gain or amplification of 1q, and deletion of 17p. Of course, this is not the entire, I would say, information we have on high risk, but I think it's a good standard. It's a very elegant system to really classify a standard single-hit, double-hit, high-risk multiple myeloma, which can be used for all physicians who treat multiple myeloma, and especially, it might also work in resource-scarce settings.

So, ultimately, I think that system is an easy-to-use baseline for our patients and provides the best information we can get, especially with a baseline, in order to compare clinical trials or to compare any data in the future.

Michael Hughes: Thank you, Dr. Lentzsch.

To the point that you made about this isn't the full story. There does, as you said, exist this persistent group of functional high-risk multiple myeloma where we see standard-risk cytogenetics, but these patients ultimately either exhibit primary refractory disease or very early relapse despite aggressive, standard aggressive treatment. How do you see risk-stratification systems incorporating other novel biomarkers for such patients? Is it truly all genetic? Or is next-generation sequencing, gene expression profiling, is that the answer? Or is there still a role for characterizing tumor burden?

Dr. Suzanne Lentzsch: Excellent question, Michael, and I wish I would have the glass ball to answer that question. I see some problems with the current approach we have. First of all, to do the cytogenetics, you need good material. You only detect and identify what you have. If the bone marrow is of low quality, you have mainly peripheral blood in your bone marrow biopsy, you might not really fully have a representation of all cytogenetic changes in your bone marrow. So I think with a low-quality sample, that you might miss one or the other really cytogenetic high risk.

So, having said this, I think circulating tumor cells, that might be something we will look into in the future, because circulating tumor cells are readily available, can be assessed without doing a bone marrow biopsy. And what is even more exciting, in addition to the circulating tumor cells or plasma cells, using them is next-generation sequencing. I think at the moment, we are more in a collection phase where we really try to correlate sequencing with our cytogenetics and especially to establish next-generation sequencing in all of our patients. But I think after that collection phase, maybe in the future, collecting peripheral blood and doing sequencing on peripheral blood samples might be the way to go.

In addition, I don't want to forget the imaging. We started with a skeletal survey, and we know that you probably need to lose 30% of the bone before you see a lesion at all. So having imaging, such as diffusion-weighted imaging, whole-body MRI, is also, together with sequencing of the tumor cells, a step into the right direction.

Michael Hughes: Thank you, Dr. Lentzsch.

Bringing this back to the article at hand, how has Kaiser et al. changed the way we discuss myeloma with patients in the exam room?

Dr. Suzanne Lentzsch: I think we have more data on hand. So far, we talked about standard risk and high risk, but I think right now, with a very simple system, we can go into the room and we can tell the patient, "Listen, you don't have any of those cytogenetic abnormalities. I think you have a standard risk. We might give you a simple maintenance treatment with Revlimid." But we might also go into the room and say, "I'm really concerned. You have so-called double-hit multiple myeloma. You have high-risk and at least two of those abnormal cytogenetics which we discussed, and I think you need a more intense maintenance treatment, for instance, double maintenance." I think we know that a high-risk multiple myeloma can be brought into a remission, but the problem that we have is to keep those patients into a remission. So, I think a more intense treatment, for instance, with a double maintenance, or with consolidation after transplant, and a longer and more intense treatment is justified in patients who have that truly high-risk multiple myeloma described here.

Michael Hughes: Dr. Lentzsch, thank you so much for your time and your wisdom.

Dr. Suzanne Lentzsch: My pleasure. Thank you for having me.

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