US Foreign Policy
Lusk Perspectives
Jerrold D. Green (Research Professor, USC Annenberg and President & CEO, Pacific Council on International Policy) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss a short list of global hotspots from a United States perspective. Green delivers insights and offers detailed context on Israel-Gaza, China, Mexico, Ukraine-Russia, and the unique position the US holds within the global economy and international relations. More:
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2024 Or Bust: The Economy, The Fed, And Fiscal Policy
Lusk Perspectives
How will the US economy perform in 2024? Claudia Sahm (Founder, Sahm Consulting) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the US economy’s recovery from COVID along with additional shocks and infer the implications of the Federal Reserve’s playbook for 2024. Sahm’s key points: - The US economy undeniably turned a corner in 2023 - The US recovery remains stronger than its peer countries - The Federal Reserve will continue their conservative approach to rate cuts - The greatest risk to the market in the near future is the Federal Reserve’s...
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U.S.-China Relations
Lusk Perspectives
Clayton Dube (Director, USC U.S.-China Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to discuss the condition of U.S.-China relations and the latest developments in China’s global influence on trade, supply chain issues, technology, and more. Dube highlights a challenge Chinese officials are watching closely in the coming years: stalling economic growth. To approach the “middle-income” problem, Dube notes the ways in which the government has both relaxed and tightened its grip on markets in an effort to continue the economy’s upward momentum. ...
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2023 Global Economic and Market Outlook
Lusk Perspectives
Joyce Chang (Managing Director & Chair of Global Research, JPMorgan Chase & Co.) delivers an overview of global economic trends to watch heading into 2023 and beyond. In the near term, Chang sees a mild recession taking effect in late 2023, with a true “soft landing”, as identified by the Federal Reserve, being unlikely. She notes that overall cycles may be shorter, with a likelihood of 4-year recessions rather than the historic 8 or 10, and markets that rally faster to regain losses. Included in the long-term outlook are remarks on China’s slowing growth, regions that could...
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2022 Casden Multifamily Forecast Report
Lusk Perspectives
Lusk Director Richard K. Green delivers highlights from the 2022 Casden Multifamily Forecast. Before Green gives a breakdown of Southern California multifamily real estate markets, he pauses to discuss four uncertainties impacting the region. Inflation, interest rates, net migration, and the impending recession are all top-of-mind issues that could dilute the forecast’s potency should any of the factors take a dramatic rise or dip. As for the forecast, Green reviews historical and forecasted data on each market, including overall economic resiliency, net migration since the pandemic began,...
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Leadership and Rethinking Work
Lusk Perspectives
An industry panel discusses the changing dynamics of office work in real estate and beyond. By now, it’s apparent that some version of remote work is here to stay for a dominant number of firms. Remote and hybrid work can solve serious employee issues like flexibility, commute times, and even productivity. However, the new work arrangements are not without drawbacks. Moderator Mary Lynne Boorn (Associate Professor, USC Sol Price School of Public Policy) invites Allison Lynch (Compass Ventures), Amalia Paliobeis (Senior Director, Portfolio Management, AvantStay), and Brandi Popovich (Vice...
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Are Appraisals and Assessments Biased?
Lusk Perspectives
Racial bias in home appraisals and assessments is not just an anecdote. Norm Miller (Hahn Chair & Professor of Real Estate Finance, University of San Diego and Vice President, Homer Hoyt Institute), Ruchi Singh (Assistant Professor, University of Georgia), and Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) discuss the statistically significant racial and ethnic biases in appraisals and tax assessments. Miller details the benefits of automated valuation models, but he also cautions that using machine learning without human oversight of variables can result in a different set...
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ADU Construction Financing: Opportunities to Expand Access for Homeowners
Lusk Perspectives
Industry practitioners in lending and policy discuss the research and recommendations in the recently released paper “ADU Construction Financing: Opportunities to Expand Access for Homeowners.” The joint paper, produced by the UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation and the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, compiles national data and stakeholder interviews to provide a picture of the hurtles to financing and what barriers could be removed to bring ADU construction to scale. Included in the discussion: Recent updates to Freddie Mac’s ADU policies How friction during...
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Geopolitics, Monetary Policy and Real Estate
Lusk Perspectives
Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) delivers a presentation on how the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could impact the global economic trajectory as many countries, including the United States, attempt to cool inflation without triggering a recession. Green dives into more specific factors contributing to the USA’s resiliency or vulnerability to global economic shocks. He shares data on why Cap Rates are likely to increase in the future, the trends economists look for with the revitalization of goods and services spending, how real estate impacts inflation, and which US...
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Getting Stuff Done - A Different Approach to Solving Problems in Los Angeles
Lusk Perspectives
Austin Beutner (Founder and Chair, Vision to Learn) joins Richard Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) for a discussion on what it takes to accomplish real change in Los Angeles. Beutner asserts that the twin forces of leadership and governance have the power to solve many of the ongoing and intensifying issues in the county like homelessness, education, and land use. As Superintendent of LAUSD during the pandemic, Beutner oversaw unprecedented responses like providing free food for the community, securing broadband internet access and devices for students in need,...
info_outlineClaudia Sahm (Senior Fellow, Jain Family Institute) joins Richard K. Green (Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate) to outline the changes in economic policy as the Federal Reserve and Congress have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sahm, who was inside the Federal Reserve during the Great Recession and recovery, has since devised the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator to help policymakers and economists determine the start of a recession based on unemployment rates.
Sahm points out that economic policy has new goals, new tools are being considered, and change will come with growing pains. As for new goals, Sahm sees interest in concepts like full employment, reducing inequality, and acknowledging racism as harbingers of a new school of thought, and one that is less skittish about inflation as the Fed works to build momentum in economic downturns. The new tools and approaches like the child benefit cash transfers in the latest stimulus package display a shift towards providing direct aid, rather than commonly used tax incentives or other targeted programs. Sahm also acknowledges that change means pain while data catches up to policy for the simple reason that some benefits or programs have never before been attempted in the US.
More: https://lusk.usc.edu/perspectives