Wells Fargo's Wren: 'There's very little chance of a rate cut any time soon'
Release Date: 04/22/2024
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at , says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market. Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the...
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Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at , discusses the firm's new "," in which a fund owner gets exposure to a market index but gives up some upside potential in exchange for protection against losses. The funds sound like a substitute for stocks but, akin to equity index products and other financial hybrids built to avoid losses, are a more suitable substitute for bank savings accounts and other cash investments. Kaufman says the products are a reflection of the times, where many investors are tired of the volatility and nervous for the future and want some assurance that they will not lose money in...
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Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the -- author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" -- says that Jerome Powell is currently trying to live "the financial version of the Hippocratic oath, which says 'First, do no harm.'" Roberts says that Powell is trying to adjust expectations gradually, which is why Wednesday's statement from the Fed boss was benign, trying to play both sides, setting expectations at one rate cut this year but with the potential to avoid that if the data doesn't demand it. In the ETF of the Week interview, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at , takes a...
info_outline Zacks' Blank: Recession for 2024 'is completely off the table'Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at , says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get...
info_outline Invesco's Levitt: Signs keep pointing to good times for the marketMoney Life with Chuck Jaffe
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at , says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges...
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Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at , says that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the , discusses the reaching its highest levels since...
info_outline WisdomTree's Schwartz: Inflation is overstated, productivity underestimatedMoney Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at , says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a...
info_outline Natixis' Janasiewicz: Stay the course, overweight equities during the earnings grindMoney Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for , says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at , makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the...
info_outline Baird's Fitterer: It feels like the Fed wants to ease, but can't do it nowMoney Life with Chuck Jaffe
Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the , says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni bond funds where there are additional tax benefits from investing -- though not getting paid to take on extra credit risk, even though defaults and delinquencies haven't gone up dramatically with rates staying higher for longer. Also on...
info_outline Seven Canyons' Kutusov: Supply chain diversification will reshape global marketsMoney Life with Chuck Jaffe
Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager on the global, international and emerging markets small-cap teams at , says that "near-shoring" or "China plus one" supply-chain diversification will "be the dominant force in international markets over the next decade." Kutusov says that geopolitical pressure and rising labor costs have pushed companies out of China or made them open additional capabilities elsewhere, most notably in India and Mexico. Plus, international interest rates are higher than in the U.S., leaving places like India, Mexico and Indonesia with economies that have room to ease...
info_outlineScott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but no more than twice this year and in September at the earliest, and he says it's increasingly likely the moves won't start until 2025. The amazing thing, Wren says, is that the stock market got to where it was flirting with record highs despite investors adjusting from six projected cuts this year down to potentially none. He says market valuations are high and he expects them to give in to economic pressures to move lower, but long-term he's positive on equities, liking industrials, health care and energy stocks while trimming technology and communication services, the big winners from 2023. David Trainer, president at New Constructs revisits pet-insurance company Trupanion, a Zombie stock that he says may be worth shorting as its business model is flawed and unlikely to be turned around. Plus, Larry Swedroe, chief research officer at Buckingham Wealth Partners, discusses his new book, "Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing."