Touchstone's Thomas: The Fed needs a soft landing to hit inflation target
Release Date: 05/16/2024
Almanac Trader Hirsch says this isn't the May to sell and go away from
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the — chief investment officer at Hirsch Holdings — says that calendar effects and seasonal sell signals may be indicating that it's time to "sell in May and go away," but he says long-term investors have plenty of reason to remain bullish enough thanks to election effects and more that investors "have no need to go away," so long as they can put up with the market's increased chop over the summer. Hirsch noted that the election effects suggest that the market will benefit from having a second-term president — regardless of who wins in November — but...
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ProShares' Hyman: "It's not about the Fed or interest rates'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at , is doubling down on a forecast he made before 2024 started, in which he said the outcome of the year for the market and economy was not "all about the Fed." He says the Federal Reserve's grip on the economy has eased, largely because the long end of the yield curve is free from the tight grip of the Federal Reserve. With the long end of the yield curve driving equity prices, Hyman thinks the market can find more room to run, and that's what he is expecting, although he does think there is an economic downturn with a soft landing in our near...
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IBKR's Torres: Consumer will power economy, market into 2025
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jose Torres, senior economist at , expects consumers to keep spending and to help power the economy through at least the end of the year without a recession, but he notes that if the Federal Reserve ultimately decides that it's going to 2 percent inflation or bust, there will be a bust for the consumer and the economy, with the current party ending in a potentially protracted period of struggles. Jack Nelson, portfolio manager of the global emerging markets sustainability strategy at , says that while many investors are avoiding China, it's important to not be so fearful as to miss out on the...
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Carson Group's Detrick: Chances of recession in next 12 months 'are quite low'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the , notes that the economic news and growth remain so strong that "the odds of recession are quite low."Detrick notes that 10 of 11 sectors in the Standard & Poor's 500 are higher year-to-date, which is why his firm is overweight in equities generally, and has been adding to financials and industrials in particular. Detrick says there are several disconnects between hard and soft data -- soft data shows low consumer confidence but hard data shows strong retail sales -- and he is trusting the hard data to see the economy continue to broaden out for...
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Raging Bull's Bishop: 'If this is not the top, we've got to be very close'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at , says that the market is showing signs of topping out, though he thinks that the building downturn now will likely be short and not too steep before a rally again chases record highs. Bishop notes that "all of the bears have been destroyed," so there are few investors betting against the market, which is typically a sign that trouble is ahead. Bishop notes that those bearish investors were tired of their losses, and that betting against the market now would be risky, but he says there is more downside risk than potential upside right now. Sam Millette,...
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Orion's Vanneman: This is the market you diversify for
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at , says that while the economy has been stronger than investors expected entering the year — and isn't likely to have a sudden reversal — investors need to heed the warning signs and balance optimism with caution, remaining properly diversified. He notes that some international markets are particularly well-positioned right now in terms of valuations compared to domestic equities, particularly in hot industries like artificial intelligence, where the bargains are more with global stocks. Vanneman also likes real assets and discusses the...
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Lido's Sanchez: 'This is the most fickle market we've ever experienced'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Gina Sanchez, chief market strategist at , says that the stock market is changing its mind so fast that every month investors have a new focus. She notes that the market has gone from favoring value to growth to defensive growth and kept rotating to where it is now back to growth, but she says that can't continue for long because the current level of "productive inflation" will stop working, leading to a slower economy in the second half of the year. While she doesn't expect a hard landing — and in fact expects a long, slow period of sluggishness — it will create volatility and conditions...
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Dave Rosenberg: The recession was delayed, but it's coming soon
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Dave Rosenberg, president of , says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover,...
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3Edge's Foltz: Participate in the rally, but look for danger ahead
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at , says investors need to be watching for issues like liquidity being pulled from the system and credit spreads widening and other signs that there may be trouble ahead. He says the market -- as witnessed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 last Friday -- remains driven by momentum and investor behavior and fear of missing out, but once there are strong signs that conditions are faltering and momentum is slowing, there will be a downturn, with a slowdown starting later this year though it may not turn into a full recession until 2025....
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Midas' Winmill: Gold miners poised for a pop when the Fed cuts rates
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Thomas Winmill, manager of the , says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of , says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a...
info_outlineCrit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.