Economist says new tariff uncertainty builds confidence that recession is avoidable
Release Date: 06/02/2025
Investors lower expectations from 'outrageous' to 'almost reasonable'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
David Goodsell, executive director of the , discusses the firm's , which shows that investors were so satisfied with the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and '24 that they are expecting less this year, but they have only dropped their expectations from roughly 17 percent down to about 12 percent, and Goodsell notes that financial advisers sugest those numbers aren't realistic or responsible. Goodsell says he believes the market is heading towards "a new age of diminished expectations." Sociologist and author Juliet Schor discusses her latest book, ", leaning into whether the business community...
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BNP Paribas' Morris says 'neutral' may be the best bet for this market
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at , says he sees continued expansion in the United States and a slowing in Europe and other international markets, which contributes to why he is mostly neutral on allocations, as tariff plays and international stimulus efforts and more creates positive potential around the globe. Morris says a neutral stance makes sense because there is so much uncertainty right now that it is hard to have strong convictions about what the market can do next. Indrani De, global head of investment research for discusses the ongoing Russell Reconstitution — the...
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PGIM's Mintz says bargain hunters should look to emerging markets
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Stacie Mintz, head of quantitative equity for , says that equity valuations in emerging markets are at their most attractive level relative to U.S. stocks in decades. That's not a surprise, as emerging markets have underperformed domestic markets for the last 13 years, but Mintz says the time has come for diversification to pay off. While the headline risks of tariffs, trade wars and geopolitics loom large,she said current values are compelling enough that investors should be comfortable waiting for a payoff when the news cycle calms down. Jasmine Escalera discusses a survey done by which...
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Veteran manager Shill sees a complacent market facing big downside risks
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Ed Shill, managing partner at the , says he sees the market either continuing to climb the proverbial wall of worry or getting complacent, and he fears that it's the latter after the sharp rebound from April's decline. "Right now the market is overbought," Shill says in the Market Call, where he recommends "putting airbags on," using stops to lock in profits and being prepared to step back from markets until conditions improve. In The Big Interview, Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at , says that the Federal Reserve faces a challenge getting the market to understand its motivation...
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Invesco's Levitt: Expect lower earnings, higher volatility and modest market gains
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at , says that he came into the year expecting that the growth and inflation backdrop would support reasonable corporate earnings that could push the market higher. He still believes that -- despite expecting a slowdown, struggles with increased market volatility and higher inflation as a result of tariff impacts -- and said that . Levitt made the case for expanded international investments, but said he would lean into quality as a factor, noting that high-grade companies will give the most shelter if the storm clouds deliver more trouble than Levitt and...
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NY Life's Hermann: 'We have a lot of risk and almost none of that is priced in'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Julia Hermann, global market strategist at , says she is concerned about market volatility for the remainder of the year, especially as tariff impacts work their way further into the economy and as we see some resolution on their status. While tariffs pose the risk of creating an exogenous shock — precisely what Hermann worried about triggering a recession when she last visited the show in February — she says that recession risk now is actually lower than it was when trade policies were made public in early April. She also discusses , which looks at global debt investing, talking about how...
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Wells Fargo's Christopher expects market, economic pullbacks through the end of '25
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States...
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Northwestern Mutual's Schutte: Markets won't be 'straight up and to the right'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at , says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the...
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LPL's Turnquist: 'You want to be buying dips and not selling rips right now'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at says he expects the market has enough momentum to break through to new record highs, and soon. Led by tech stocks, Turnquist expects the move off the April lows to continue, though he acknowledges that the macro backdrop "is extremely messy." If the market can overcome trade uncertainties, Turnquist says that when new highs are achieved three months apart, it is typically a good sign that a volatile market can continue overcome bad news and continue upward trends. The NAVigator segment features an interviewed taped in New York at the Active...
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Oppenheimer's Penn is watching how credit losses weigh on BDCs
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Mitchel Penn, managing director at — interviewed at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum in New York on Wednesday — says that credit losses for business development companies during the first quarter of 2025 were more than double the level they have been at for the last few years. He says some of that increase could be attributed to the market's reaction to government policies, but that it also could be that interest rates have stayed higher for so long now that they are starting to create credit-quality issues. He said BDCs can still deliver returns in the range of 9% moving...
info_outlineBrian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that for all of the concerns that tariffs have created for the economy, the situation playing out in the courts now has put a cap on how much can be done that reduces the chance of recession. Jacobsen says that the bond market is signalling potential concerns now while the stock market is suggesting that "everything is fine," and he notes that both messages can be correct amid uncertainty around inflation, government debt levels and more. Jacobsen also discusses the sentiment numbers, which suggest that consumers are miserable, but he says that Americans aren't yet reflecting that attitude with their spending habits. Yetin a Survey Said interview to open the show, Chip Lupo analyzes the latest WalletHub Economic Index, which showed that consumer optimism is plummeting and that it is starting to impact those spending decisions. Plus David Trainer, president at New Constructs, introduces the concept of "fake dividend stocks" in the Danger Zone this week, noting that a popular real estate trust focused on data centers has a decent dividend but is so overpriced that investors will wind up losing more money holding the stock than they earn from the dividends that the stock pays out. He says this is part of a trend — which he plans to cover in the Danger Zone — of "false dividends, fake dividends and dividend traps."