3Edge's Folts: At these prices, stock investors should wonder what 'fair value' is
Release Date: 12/18/2025
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Chun Wang, senior analyst and portfolio manager at the , says that the economy should perform well in 2026, with the mid-term election feeling more like a presidential election because fiscal and monetary policy should be aligned to prove something to voters, rather than the typical mid-term doldrums. Still, Wang believes that the wealth effect that has kept the economy out of a recession would be threatened by a market downturn, which means that a bear market would likely cause a recession. Wang says the near-term biggest macro risk is outside the U.S., most notably rising bond yields in...
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Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at , says the market entered the year "with some pretty nice tailwinds all hitting at the same time," which has the economy set up for growth that he thinks will push the stock market to its fourth straight year of double-digit gains. Ladner recognizes that the market is enjoying current conditions, but he doesn't see major risks as being high-probability events this year, and instead finds his discomfort and nervousness in riding along with the consensus that conditions are so good. In the Book Interview, discusses ", which looks at the evolution of the...
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Brian Levitt, global market strategist at , says he is watching but not worried about geopolitics, the interest rate environment and more because the current business cycle is strong enough to continue through the year. Levitt entered the year with a mindset of rebalancing and diversifying to take advantage of areas like international investments and small-caps that have been underweighted in portfolios, and he says foreign stocks should benefit all year from weaker dollar conditions. Dollar strength is one of — corporate bond spreads, transportation stocks and inflation expectations...
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Talley Leger, chief market strategist at , says the market is facing seven different headwinds, but that it has 10 tailwinds, all blowing to overcome potential troubles to where he expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 8,500 this year. That would make 2026 the fourth consecutive year with double-digit market gains, but Leger is confident in his pick, noting that easing financial conditions — including a few more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve — should support economic re-acceleration to let the rally roll on. Leger is not the only one who is optimistic, as the latest...
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, the father of the 401(k) -- who first recognized the potential in Section 401(k) of the tax code to boost retirement savings and who developed the first plan -- ax code, he recognized its potential and developed the first plan -- says that the Trump Administration's proposed plan to allow 401(k) savers to put some of their monies toward home down payments is a positive change that is overdue. He is not worried that the change will somehow endanger savers or widen the retirement crisis and notes that the change would make rules consistent across various types of tax-advantaged retirement...
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Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at , discusses , noting that the market has rewarded the sellers of artificial intelligence technologies, but at some point the buyers of AI technology will "need to show material gains from those investments" to justify the spending and maintain AI profits. As a result, he is cautious on artificial intelligence and technology stocks, but he is positive on the market and says he expects to see strong opportunities in small-cap stocks and international plays, particularly in emerging markets. discusses his new book, “Your Perfect Portfolio:...
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Peter Chiappinelli, chief investment officer at says "When everyone is talking about a bubble, I sleep much, much better at night, because it means we're probably not in one." He makes the case that valuations are high — which could hold down potential earnings moving forward — but that they still justify the market action we have seen. He's cautiously optimistic that gains can continue, with his worry being the geopolitics, but he says the market has overcome plenty of exogenous shocks in recent years, and that recession risk is "almost nil" so that investors should expect volatility in...
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Alan Thomson, chief executive officer at — which has developed a factor-rotation index based on evolving market conditions — says that the market's strong conditions are "durable," but that a "fragile" macro environment has created stresses. This makes for a "thin-ice state," where the market shows stability and could stay that way for the foreseeable future, but the underlying risks can not be ignored. He noted that should not put investors out of the market, but should instead have them aware that trouble is possible and to factor downside risk potential into their near-term outlook. ,...
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Martin Pring, publisher of the and chief investment strategist at , says that "all measures of valuation ... are up in the stratosphere," which means the market is entering "a very dangerous period on a long-term basis." For now, however, Pring stressed that "trend trumps level," meaning that the valuations won't derail the market on their own, because the trend has remained to the upside. Still, he says that could happen soon, noting that the market has been climbing a big mountain during the current rally, but it is currently nearing "the death zone," where it runs out of oxygen. Ryan...
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Ben Cook, portfolio manager for the , says that the removal of Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro "will do little to change the global balance for the supply of crude oil" and says the situation is unlikely to have much price impact. He worries more about how tensions in Iran and the Middle East could impact markets if they take a turn for the worse. Cook also notes that government policies have changed investment prospects in classic energy companies compared to alternative energy developers and says he expects that trend to continue. With the stock market again flirting with record highs,...
info_outlineFritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says valuations are at levels reminiscent of bubble days in 1999 and the crash era of 1929, but that's not scaring him out of a mix of domestic and foreign stocks, because economic conditions can support further growth. He does worry about a policy mistake or other event which could trigger a downturn, but so long as it stays mild and doesn't "lurch" to where it's a 40% drop, he thinks investors should be comfortable riding it out.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes an actively managed small-cap fund — the sister to an international fund he highlighted earlier this year — his ETF of the Week.
Plus, Thomas Cole, Co-Founder, Distillate Capital and the Distillate US Fundamental Stability Value ETF, brings his unique take on value investing to the Market Call.