Economist Bob Stein’s Take on the 2024 Presidential Race and Future of our Economy
Release Date: 09/03/2024
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info_outlineHow will the 2024 election affect the economy, the markets, the deficits, and your wallet? Our favorite economist is back on the podcast for a third time with his straightforward opinions!
Bob Stein is the Deputy Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, where he’s responsible for commenting on and forecasting the U.S. economy.
In this Off the Wall discussion, Bob shares his thoughts and predictions for the 2024 electoral races for the House, Senate and White House, and their impacts on the American people.
Bob breaks down the scenarios and possible outcomes for the election, including what would happen in a parallel universe (thanks for the fun prompt, Dave). So, buckle up and get ready for some ponder-worthy possibilities!
“As of today, the one thing I can tell you for sure is that my odds will change between now and Election Day, maybe multiple times, maybe by dinner tonight. But as of right now, I think Donald Trump has about a 60% chance of winning. Harris only 40.” – Bob Stein
Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:
[00:00] Introducing Bob Stein & the topic of today’s episode.
[02:28] What is the likely outcome of the House election and how will it impact the US economy?
[04:06] Will Hakeem Jeffries become speaker of the House and a presidential candidate for 2028?
[06:48] What is the likely outcome of the Senate election? What are the odds the Democrats take the Senate?
[10:25] If Republicans take the Senate, what impact will it have on the economy, markets, deficit, and people’s wallets?
[11:31] Bob’s predictions on the 2024 Presidential Election results.
[15:06] If Trump or Harris won, how would it affect the economy, markets, deficits, and people’s wallets?
[18:33] If Harris won the election, would tax cuts get extended?
[20:48] Potential outcomes of a red sweep, blue sweep, or divided government.
[23:48] What are the realistic policies being supported by Trump and Harris?
[29:06] Are there any policy ideas that the presidential candidates are putting forward that you think, if it's enacted, would be potentially harmful to the economy or the average American?
[30:07] Potential changes to the Supreme Court after the election.
[33:46] Low probability surprises we could see happen in the 2024 Presidential Election.
Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures.
Resources Mentioned:
First Trust: https://www.ftportfolios.com
Listen to our first episode with Bob (Predictions for the Economic & Political Landscape 2022): https://bit.ly/3fU48CH
Listen to our last episode with Bob (2024 Presidential Election Predictions): https://bit.ly/bobstein2
Subscribe to our blog: https://bit.ly/MonumentWealthBlog
Subscribe to Monument #Unfiltered: https://bit.ly/monumentunfiltered
About Bob Stein:
Bob is Deputy Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, L.P., where he is responsible for forecasting the U.S. economy and writing economic commentaries. With Bob’s projections, First Trust has won numerous awards for its economic forecasts, including being ranked #1 in the world by Consensus Economics for accurately predicting GDP growth and Consumer Price Inflation in the United States in 2022. In addition, First Trust is consistently ranked in the top five by Bloomberg for forecasting economic indicators. Bob has also won several Crystal Ball Awards from Zillow for forecasting home prices. Prior to joining First Trust in 2006, Bob was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the U.S. Treasury Department. While there, Bob was responsible for briefing the Secretary of the Treasury on U.S. macroeconomic developments, formulating policy proposals, and helping generate the official economic forecast used by the President for budget proposals. Day to day, he led a team of twenty economists conducting in-depth economic analysis and research.
Between 1996 and 2002, Bob was an economist on Capitol Hill, including the last two years (2001-02) as chief economist for the Senate Budget Committee. While on Capitol Hill, Bob also worked for the Senate Banking Committee and Joint Economic Committee. Prior to his tenure on Capitol Hill, Bob was an economic journalist for Investor’s Business Daily. Bob received a BA in both Economics and Government from Georgetown University. He has been a CFA charter holder since 2003.
Connect with Bob Stein on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-stein-4234ba18
Follow him on X: https://x.com/BobStein_FT
Connect with Monument Wealth Management:
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Subscribe to Monument #Unfiltered: https://bit.ly/monumentunfiltered
About “Off the Wall”:
OFF THE WALL is a podcast for business professionals and high-net-worth investors who want to build wealth with purpose. A little bit Wall Street, a little bit off-the-wall; it's your go-to for straightforward, unfiltered wealth advice on topics that founders, business owners, and executives care about.
Learn more about our hosts, Dave and Jessica on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com.