July 11th, 2015, though just five months ago, feels like an eternity since the highly anticipated featherweight fight between reigning champion Jose Aldo and up and coming contender Conor McGregor were scheduled to fight. The world tour, the press conferences, the stare downs, all leading up to the biggest fight in each man's career was cancelled. A rib injury suffered in the Brazilian champions training camp would derail the thousand pound hype train for the UFC, opening the door for Chad Mendes to steal the spotlight.
Fortunately for the UFC match makers, their super star The Notorious Conor McGregor managed to weather the wrestlers storm and set up the next fight to be the two original power houses to colliding in December. In doing so we learned about Conor’s game. I personally had questions about his cardio. Finishing his opponents quickly was nice but what would he do when things weren't going his way? Questions were abounding about his chin. The massive weight cut routinely had McGregor looking sucked out and skeletal the day prior to fights. Many believe a hard cut that depletes the body of water has led to fighters being susceptible to knock outs. These questions McGregor has answered and then some. Taking hard shots and walking right through them, showing no signs of slowing down after being out wrestled for most of the first round. Proving he's walking the walk as well as talking that infamous talk.
In the first scheduled fight I had been looking to bet the champ. Now what I've seen from McGregor has me reconsidering. Not only that, but it's what I haven't seen from Aldo that enforces that sentiment.
It's been almost 14 months since Aldo has fought in the octagon, a hard fought close five round decision victory over Chad Mendes in October of 2014. Now I'm not a journalist. I have no credible sources. I am just a man who obsesses with the sport from the comfort of my couch. But there are things going on in the sport that worry me for Jose Aldo. First off, Father Time is undefeated. Aldo has been in this game a long time. Never knocked out but he's not impossible to hit and McGregor is about the hardest puncher Aldo has ever faced. Secondly, it's the size, Aldo has long been successful fighting in a weight class that has men his size fighting like men his size. Conor uses his kicks to gauge distance and "jab" his opponent in and out of his desired range. Lastly, and this is why I say I am in no way a journalist, to ignore the usage of steroids in MMA would be ignorant. When a champion of a decade has had the success of someone like Aldo there will be speculations. This past year the UFC has introduced a new more stringent drug policy. Harder testing, more frequent, and "out of camp" testing. Aldo has had interesting contamination stories about his piss tests in the past and the Brazilians have hands down the worst reputation when it comes to cheating. He was cleared by medical doctors last time and pulled himself from the fight. I have questions about how clean he has been. Add that to the fact that "ring rust" of a 14 month lay-off is hard for any fight, let alone the pace, speed, timing, and movement that McGregor will implore is almost impossible to recreate inside the walls of the Nova União Gym.
Of course this is just my "bro science" opinion. Looking at this fight from afar it's absolutely a close fight. Lines have been moving in favor of the contender because of the public's... well, let's be honest... Ireland's not scared of laying the juice and backing their guy. The pros will tell you how close this fight actually is. But in sports betting I always say that if you can get enough little advantages it will add up. In the highly anticipated pay per view main event I will be betting Conor Mcgregor to beat Jose Aldo by late second round TKO.
-Sal