This has been great. Normally doing the research and watching film for a fight is, "whatever". I enjoy it, but ultimately I do it because I'm a betting man who likes being right. This was different. The past few days of rewatching fights and doing my research has been a real joy. With the latest huge cards featuring McGregor and Rousey, this event, featuring Condit and Lawler will not draw the same PPV numbers, but those who buy in will not be disappointed.
Everyone knows what kind of a tear Lawler has been on. The way he ended the fight against Hendricks, throwing hands and kicks with viscous intent and anger, looking like a man possessed who wanted to go an other few rounds with the champ. Then the way he ended the last fight with Rory McDonald, taking a man's will to fight away from him, stealing Rory's soul with a jab that crumbled the challenger. Yet, Lawler came into both fights as the underdog. The take away from these fights was how, to put it frankly, how tough and scary Robbie Lawler is.
Condit on the other hand has been out of the lime light. Just three fights in the last three years, including a long lay off after a leg injury that cost him a fight against Tyron Woodley. Bookmakers seemed to have forget what he can bring to the table by opening the line up Lawler -145 and who can blame them. With just two wins in his last five fights it's a surprise he's even getting this title shot at all! But this is the UFC and superior styles make superior fights. When these two strikers get into the cage, the Fertittas can start writing the "Fight Of The Night Bonus" checks out.
Robbie has single handedly brought the "sprawl n' brawl" back to the UFC. He's been able to force opponents into these stand up slug-fests as of late and by using his experience and sheer will to win he's been able to eek out victories. The fans love it, the UFC loves it, and he's doing it all at what should have been the tail end of his career. I don't know with this style if he can keep it up in this particular match up tho. Carlos Condit is a technician on the feet. Robbie has been fortunate to implement his sprawl against wrestlers and force them to stand and trade. Carlos wants the fight there anyways. Robbie is hitable, we watched Rory come incredibly close to ending that last fight in the third and fourth rounds. Not to mention the judges were giving him the fight before he was TKOed. If Robbie thinks he can survive the pace, the versatility, and the power of Condit standing for 25 minutes I think he will be in a world of shit come the championship rounds. The striking arsenal Condit has and the coaching from Winkle-John and Jackson's MMA is a bad match up for most of the division, let alone a UFC vet of 13 years who was very wobbled from a checked head kick in his last bout. Condit's chin on the other hand is looks fine, never been knocked out and has shown to recover well from head strikes. If this is a pure stand up fight then I think it's undoubtedly worth a bet on Condit. That's a big "if" Condit has shown some of the worst take down defense in the division. Embarrassingly bad in some spots. There's no explaining it. He's never tired or worn out, he's not generally in a bad position to sprawl and he's very athletic. It's almost as if he doesn't know that guys are allowed to take him down. If Lawler wants to put in a workman like ground and pound performance, I think he can. Condit will be able to get up, he will throw up submission attempts, he will work sweeps and try to take the back. But we've seen in fights that if things are going too well for him on the feet his opponent isn't scared of stealing a round in half guard.
The line makes sense. It's at about a pick'em right now. I can't confidently put even money on a challenger to take away a champ's title, but what I can do is wait for a "Condit inside the distance" bet at plus money. I'm not endorsing a big play here, but if the odds are good enough I can justify betting Carlos Condit via Headkick TKO in the 4th round against a tired Robbie Lawler.
Wish I had a more confident play here but that's what makes this fight so intriguing! I'm hoping for a stand up war and I think Condit would come out the victor in that scenario but his takedown defense is too poor for me to endorse that. Unfortunately I think we will know quickly if Lawler wants to take it to the ground or not. If he doesn't I'll be on the couch with my left over Chinese food boxes and empty beer cans yelling at the tv "I should have fucking bet more on fucking Condit!"
-Sal