Episode 75: Lance Mortlock On Scenario Planning to Drive Strategic Decisions
Release Date: 07/30/2021
While the OODA Loop was been heralded in the domain of conflict, we often find the concept in business and there is no greater business analogy to dogfighting that David Greenberg's experience as a trader on the floor of the world's largest physical commodities exchange. David's job required rapid decision making based on constantly changing information and the mental fortitude to move onto the next decision and rapidly learn from both successes and mistakes. In addition to his work as a trader, David also guided the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) through its largest period of growth and...info_outline Episode 98: John Spencer on Connected Soldiers and the Future of Conflict
John Spencer is a writer, thinker, speaker scholar who currently serves as the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the US Military Academy. He brings the experience of a veteran who has led in combat to his work, and in his latest book, Connected Soldiers, also provides insights from his time as a stay at home parent as his wife deployed. His analysis of connectivity and ints impact from multiple angles makes his book a very well rounded examination of how the Internet age is transforming how nations go to war. In this OODAcast we discuss the book as well as John's career and insights he has for...info_outline Episode 97: Duyane Norman on Disrupting the CIA to Deal with Emerging Threats
Duyane Norman spent nearly 30 years in the CIA with three Chief of Station and multiple other tours in a variety of interesting geographies and also had a focus on technology issues serving as Deputy Director of the Office of Technical Service within CIA’s Directorate of Science and Technology, and as a member of the CIA Counterterrorism Center’s Incident Response Team. Duyane established a reputation as an innovator and a disruptor looking for ways for the intelligence services to flourish given the fast pace of technological change and the dynamic threats emerging on the global...info_outline Episode 96: First Federal CISO Greg Touhill on Advanced Cybersecurity by Design
Greg Touhill is one of the nation’s premier cybersecurity, information technology and risk management leaders. As an Air Force officer he led technology efforts in some of our nation's most demanding organizations including combatant commands during time of war. He is an accomplished speaker and author and business executive and also served as our nation's first Chief Information Security Officer (CISO). Touhill is currently the director of the Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute's CERT Division. In this capacity he leads one of the most highly regarded organizations in...info_outline Episode 95: Former Tenable CEO Ron Gula Applies a Hacker Mindset to Investing, Public Awareness, and Philanthropy
In this OODAcast, we interview Ron Gula, co-founder and CEO of the highly successful Tenable Security(NASDAQ:TENB) and currently President of Gula Tech Adventures. Ron has a long history in the cybersecurity field that includes starting his career as an NSA hacker and then transitioning into an entrepreneur responsible for multiple innovations in the market and several successful companies. Ron remains a hacker at heart, and currently focuses his energy on investing in and mentoring emerging companies, improving public awareness on cybersecurity, and engaging in philanthropic efforts. In our...info_outline Episode 94: Jim Lawler on the Art of Espionage and the Perfect Intelligence Operation
In this OODAcast, we talk with Jim Lawler who is a Senior Partner at MDO Group, which provides HUMINT training to the Intelligence Community and the commercial sector focused on WMD, CI, technical and cyber issues. Mr. Lawler is a noted speaker on the Insider Threat in government and industry. Prior to this, Mr. Lawler served for 25 years as a CIA operations officer in various international posts and as Chief of the Counterproliferation Division's Special Activities Unit. We talk with Jim about his career in intelligence and national security, his views on the current threats including...info_outline Episode 93: Lifelong Hacker and Experienced Security Executive Alyssa Miller, Author of Cybersecurity Career Guide
Alyssa Miller is a life-long hacker and highly experienced security executive who has a passion for security and the security community. She is an excellent advocate for continuous improvement in the community and a frequent speaker to audiences of both fellow business leaders and security community audiences. This combined with her deep experience in the industry makes her the perfect person to research and write the Cybersecurity Career Guide. The guide is a much needed resource for our community. In this OODAcast we ask Alyssa for context of use to cybersecurity professionals,...info_outline Episode 92: Dr. Scott Shumate Profiles Russian President Vladimir Putin
This OODAcast is a special edition focused on profiling Russian President Vladimir Putin with Dr. Scott Shumate, who has over 30 years of experience evaluating national leaders, terrorists, spies, and insiders. Scott shares his unique perspective's on Putin informed by his extensive experience and insight. During this session we explore: Is Putin suicidal? Is Putin a rational actor? How would Putin feel about an escalatory use of cyber attacks? What is Putin's primary motivation in attacking the Ukraine? How does Putin value propaganda? Should we expect more nuclear bravado from...info_outline Episode 91: Chris Butler on the Value of Adversarial Thinking in Product Design and Management
In this OODACast, Matt talks with Chris Butler about how concepts like adversarial thinking can be applied to product design and management. Chris is an exemplar of someone who has excelled in his field but also looks to study and bring disruptive ideas like randomness and future framing from other disciplines to determine their value and applicability in product management. As it turns out, he's a big fan of John Boyd's OODA Loop and even made a trip to the Boyd archives where he discovered that Boyd was a fan of a certain science fiction book. Chris Butler is a...info_outline Episode 90: John Chambers on Risk and Opportunity in the Modern Age
John Chambers is the legendary former CEO of Cisco, a company he helped grow from $70 million in revenue per year when he joined in 1991 to $1.2 billion a year the year he became CEO to over $48 billion a year by the time he retired in 2015. As a leader John was always known for far more than just revenue growth, he was skilled at building an organization that treated people well, including employees, customers and the community. In this OODAcast we discuss John's book, , which shares his insights into leadership including leadership of organizations that need to disrupt themselves. The...info_outline
Lance Mortlock is a Senior EY Strategy Partner. He is author of the book Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for Post Pandemic Future, which explores ways scenario planning can help organizations be more resilient. This is a must-read book for anyone in the Risk Management field. It provides practical advice for strategists, planners, executives and board members on how to ask better questions related to the future, uncertainty, risk and strategy.
In this OODAcast, we ask Lance for insights into what planners can learn from major global events from the last few decades and how scenario planning can help organizations prepare for the big shocks.
Scenario Planning goes beyond simple strategy development and strategic planning. Strategic plans are almost never agile enough for the real world. Scenario planning helps organizations prepare for increasing levels of global uncertainty and complexity. When done well it results in playbooks that can help speed decision-making in the moment.
Scenario Planning originated with the military and has been firmly rooted in military strategy and is continually leveraged at major military staff headquarters to map out potential futures. Students of military history may know of famous scenario planners like Herman Kahn of RAND. Kahn had met with a forward thinking executive at Shell, Pierre Wack, who became the first business leader to adapt scenario planning commercially. Lance discusses how many corporations since then have leveraged scenario planning to anticipate futures and prepare for both increased risk and opportunities.
Lessons we learned from Lance include:
- Expected outcomes from scenario planning
- Repeatable methods to get the most from planning sessions
- How Lance's methods of scenario planning for corporations can be translated to scenario planning for individuals (which makes for some excellent career advice)
- Potential scenarios involving the impact of Covid-19 on the global business environment
- What could be the next big disruptive event
- The uncertainty and complexity and potential risks and opportunities associated with Artificial Intelligence
Black Swans and Gray Rhinos
Now more than ever, organizations need to apply rigorous thought to business risks and opportunities. In doing so it is useful to understand the concepts embodied in the terms Black Swan and Gray Rhino. See: Potential Future Opportunities, Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the Age of Continuous Crisis
Cybersecurity Sensemaking: Strategic intelligence to inform your decisionmaking
The OODA leadership and analysts have decades of experience in understanding and mitigating cybersecurity threats and apply this real world practitioner knowledge in our research and reporting. This page on the site is a repository of the best of our actionable research as well as a news stream of our daily reporting on cybersecurity threats and mitigation measures. See: Cybersecurity Sensemaking
Corporate Sensemaking: Establishing an Intelligent Enterprise
OODA’s leadership and analysts have decades of direct experience helping organizations improve their ability to make sense of their current environment and assess the best courses of action for success going forward. This includes helping establish competitive intelligence and corporate intelligence capabilities. Our special series on the Intelligent Enterprise highlights research and reports that can accelerate any organization along their journey to optimized intelligence. See: Corporate Sensemaking
Artificial Intelligence Sensemaking: Take advantage of this mega trend for competitive advantage
This page serves as a dynamic resource for OODA Network members looking for Artificial Intelligence information to drive their decision-making process. This includes a special guide for executives seeking to make the most of AI in their enterprise. See: Artificial Intelligence Sensemaking
COVID-19 Sensemaking: What is next for business and governments
From the very beginning of the pandemic we have focused on research on what may come next and what to do about it today. This section of the site captures the best of our reporting plus daily daily intelligence as well as pointers to reputable information from other sites. See: OODA COVID-19 Sensemaking Page.
Space Sensemaking: What does your business need to know now
A dynamic resource for OODA Network members looking for insights into the current and future developments in Space, including a special executive’s guide to space. See: Space Sensemaking
Quantum Computing Sensemaking
OODA is one of the few independent research sources with experience in due diligence on quantum computing and quantum security companies and capabilities. Our practitioner’s lens on insights ensures our research is grounded in reality. See: Quantum Computing Sensemaking.
The OODAcast Video and Podcast Series
In 2020, we launched the OODAcast video and podcast series designed to provide you with insightful analysis and intelligence to inform your decision making process. We do this through a series of expert interviews and topical videos highlighting global technologies such as cybersecurity, AI, quantum computing along with discussions on global risk and opportunity issues. See: The OODAcast