Second-Order Thinking: How to Stop Your Decisions From Creating Bigger Problems (Thinking 101 - Ep 6)
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
In August 2025, Polish researchers tested something nobody had thought to check: what happens to doctors' skills after they rely on AI assistance? The AI worked perfectly—catching problems during colonoscopies, flagging abnormalities faster than human eyes could. But when researchers pulled the AI away, the doctors' detection rates had dropped. They'd become less skilled at spotting problems on their own. We're all making decisions like this right now. A solution fixes the immediate problem—but creates a second-order consequence that's harder to see and often more damaging than what we...
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Make Better Decisions When Nothing is Certain
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where the market research is mixed. Or a career pivot where you can't predict which path leads where. You want more information. More time. More certainty. But you're not going to get it. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals—poker players, venture capitalists, military strategists—consistently make better decisions than the rest of us in exactly...
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You Think In Analogies and You Are Doing It Wrong
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Try to go through a day without using an analogy. I guarantee you'll fail within an hour. Your morning coffee tastes like yesterday's batch. Traffic is moving like molasses. Your boss sounds like a broken record. Every comparison you make—every single one—is your brain's way of understanding the world. You can't turn it off. When someone told you ChatGPT is "like having a smart assistant," your brain immediately knew what to expect—and what to worry about. When Netflix called itself "the HBO of streaming," investors understood the strategy instantly. These comparisons aren't just...
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How To Master Causal Thinking
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
$37 billion. That's how much gets wasted annually on marketing budgets because of poor attribution and misunderstanding of what actually drives results. Companies' credit campaigns that didn't work. They kill initiatives that were actually succeeding. They double down on coincidences while ignoring what's actually driving outcomes. Three executives lost their jobs this month for making the same mistake. They presented data showing success after their initiatives were launched. Boards approved promotions. Then someone asked the one question nobody thought to ask: "Could something else...
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How to Improve Logical Reasoning Skills
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
You see a headline: "Study Shows Coffee Drinkers Live Longer." You share it in 3 seconds flat. But here's what just happened—you confused correlation with causation, inductive observation with deductive proof, and you just became a vector for misinformation. Right now, millions of people are doing the exact same thing, spreading beliefs they think are facts, making decisions based on patterns that don't exist, all while feeling absolutely certain they're thinking clearly. We live in a world drowning in information—but starving for truth. Every day, you're presented with hundreds of...
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Why Thinking Skills Matter More Than Ever
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
The Crisis We're Not Talking About We're living through the greatest thinking crisis in human history—and most people don't even realize it's happening. Right now, AI generates your answers before you've finished asking the question. Search engines remember everything so you don't have to. Algorithms curate your reality, telling you what to think before you've had the chance to think for yourself. We've built the most sophisticated cognitive tools humanity has ever known, and in doing so, we've systematically dismantled our ability to use our own minds. A recent MIT study found that students...
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How to Build Innovation Skills Through Daily Journaling
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Most innovation leaders are performing someone else's version of innovation thinking. I've spent decades in this field. Worked with Fortune 100 companies. And here's what I see happening everywhere. Brilliant leaders following external frameworks. Copying methodologies from people they admire. Shifting their approach based on whatever's trendy. But they never develop their own innovation thinking skills. Today, I'd like to share a simple practice that has transformed my life. And I'll show you exactly how I do it. The Problem Here's what I see in corporate America. Leaders are reacting to...
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The WSJ Got Quarterly Reporting Wrong
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Michael Dell and his investors spent twenty-five billion dollars to buy back Dell Technologies. But they weren't really buying a company. They were buying freedom from quarterly earnings pressure. I'm Phil McKinney, former CTO of Hewlett-Packard, and I witnessed how this pressure shaped decisions for years. Today, we are exploring why the misses what actually happens inside corporate boardrooms. The Reality of Quarterly Pressure I want to show you what quarterly reporting actually looks like from the inside. Let me paint you a picture. It's week seven of the quarter, and you're in a...
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How to Get Smarter by Arguing with People who Disagree with You
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
What if I told you that the people who disagree with you are actually your secret weapon for better thinking? Just last month, my wife and I had a heated argument about studio changes I wanted to make here on the ranch. Her immediate reaction was about cost. Mine was about productivity and creativity. We were talking past each other completely. But when I applied what I'm about to teach you, we discovered we were both right—and found a solution that addressed both concerns without compromising either. What started as an argument became a session where each of us was heard and...
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How to See Opportunities Others Miss
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
In 2005, I had a ten-minute conversation at San Jose Airport that generated billions in revenue for HP. But here's what's fascinating: three other HP executives heard the exact same conversation and saw nothing special about it. If you read Monday's Studio Notes, you know this story from the emotional side—what it felt like to have that breakthrough moment, the internal resistance I faced, the personal transformation that followed. Today I'm delivering on my promise to give you the complete tactical methodology behind that insight. I'm going to show you the systematic framework I call...
info_outlineEmbarking on becoming an innovation consultant is an adventure fraught with challenges and opportunities. The question that often arises is: What kind of experience does diving into the depths of innovation consulting require? Breaking into this highly competitive field necessitates a blend of academic knowledge and real-world practice. Still, the pathway is less about a set timeframe and the rich experiences gained, opening the door to innovation.
The Power of Apprenticeship: Learning by Doing
Consider the apprenticeship — the age-old tradition of learning by doing —the key to unlocking latent potential. Aligning with a mentor, someone whose accomplishments you respect and aspire to emulate, becomes vital. Through this alliance, the transfer of wisdom is not merely academic but vibrantly alive, fertilized by the flow of ideas born of actual projects and commercial undertakings.
Years vs. Experience: Redefining Success in Innovation
Is there a magic number of years required for mastery, or does the variety and depth of experience trump the span of time? What if success in innovation is not just about the ideas you conceive but also about your capacity to shepherd those ideas through the stages of development to execution?
This pursuit of innovation is not for the faint-hearted. It's for those willing to be tenacious, invest time and effort, and repeatedly return to the forge of creation. So, are you ready to unlock the door?
Real-world Experience: A Necessity, Not a Luxury
Venturing into the startup arena is daunting, with roughly 90% failing within their first year. Strikingly, the restaurant industry shares a similar fate, where 60% do not celebrate their first anniversary. Combining these two volatile worlds, as Fisayo has done with Resactly, is a brave endeavor — a testament to her passion and tenacity.
The Role of Internships and Apprenticeships
Is two years the minimum requirement for mastery, or can internships and apprenticeships be tailored to individual needs? Not everyone can commit to a two-year apprenticeship, but real-world experience is crucial. Find someone you admire, someone who has the experience, and be part of all aspects of innovation, from ideation to execution.
Unlock the Door to Innovation Consulting
In conclusion, the journey to becoming an innovation consultant is personal. Whether through internships, apprenticeships, or hands-on experience, the key is to immerse yourself in the world of innovation. Acquiring the hard knocks of real-world experience is essential, and this practical knowledge sets you apart. Once you've gained this experience, you can confidently unlock the door to innovation and share your insights with the world. So, are you ready to take that first step?