Second-Order Thinking: How to Stop Your Decisions From Creating Bigger Problems (Thinking 101 - Ep 6)
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
In August 2025, Polish researchers tested something nobody had thought to check: what happens to doctors' skills after they rely on AI assistance? The AI worked perfectly—catching problems during colonoscopies, flagging abnormalities faster than human eyes could. But when researchers pulled the AI away, the doctors' detection rates had dropped. They'd become less skilled at spotting problems on their own. We're all making decisions like this right now. A solution fixes the immediate problem—but creates a second-order consequence that's harder to see and often more damaging than what we...
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Make Better Decisions When Nothing is Certain
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where the market research is mixed. Or a career pivot where you can't predict which path leads where. You want more information. More time. More certainty. But you're not going to get it. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals—poker players, venture capitalists, military strategists—consistently make better decisions than the rest of us in exactly...
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You Think In Analogies and You Are Doing It Wrong
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Try to go through a day without using an analogy. I guarantee you'll fail within an hour. Your morning coffee tastes like yesterday's batch. Traffic is moving like molasses. Your boss sounds like a broken record. Every comparison you make—every single one—is your brain's way of understanding the world. You can't turn it off. When someone told you ChatGPT is "like having a smart assistant," your brain immediately knew what to expect—and what to worry about. When Netflix called itself "the HBO of streaming," investors understood the strategy instantly. These comparisons aren't just...
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How To Master Causal Thinking
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
$37 billion. That's how much gets wasted annually on marketing budgets because of poor attribution and misunderstanding of what actually drives results. Companies' credit campaigns that didn't work. They kill initiatives that were actually succeeding. They double down on coincidences while ignoring what's actually driving outcomes. Three executives lost their jobs this month for making the same mistake. They presented data showing success after their initiatives were launched. Boards approved promotions. Then someone asked the one question nobody thought to ask: "Could something else...
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How to Improve Logical Reasoning Skills
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
You see a headline: "Study Shows Coffee Drinkers Live Longer." You share it in 3 seconds flat. But here's what just happened—you confused correlation with causation, inductive observation with deductive proof, and you just became a vector for misinformation. Right now, millions of people are doing the exact same thing, spreading beliefs they think are facts, making decisions based on patterns that don't exist, all while feeling absolutely certain they're thinking clearly. We live in a world drowning in information—but starving for truth. Every day, you're presented with hundreds of...
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Why Thinking Skills Matter More Than Ever
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
The Crisis We're Not Talking About We're living through the greatest thinking crisis in human history—and most people don't even realize it's happening. Right now, AI generates your answers before you've finished asking the question. Search engines remember everything so you don't have to. Algorithms curate your reality, telling you what to think before you've had the chance to think for yourself. We've built the most sophisticated cognitive tools humanity has ever known, and in doing so, we've systematically dismantled our ability to use our own minds. A recent MIT study found that students...
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How to Build Innovation Skills Through Daily Journaling
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Most innovation leaders are performing someone else's version of innovation thinking. I've spent decades in this field. Worked with Fortune 100 companies. And here's what I see happening everywhere. Brilliant leaders following external frameworks. Copying methodologies from people they admire. Shifting their approach based on whatever's trendy. But they never develop their own innovation thinking skills. Today, I'd like to share a simple practice that has transformed my life. And I'll show you exactly how I do it. The Problem Here's what I see in corporate America. Leaders are reacting to...
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The WSJ Got Quarterly Reporting Wrong
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Michael Dell and his investors spent twenty-five billion dollars to buy back Dell Technologies. But they weren't really buying a company. They were buying freedom from quarterly earnings pressure. I'm Phil McKinney, former CTO of Hewlett-Packard, and I witnessed how this pressure shaped decisions for years. Today, we are exploring why the misses what actually happens inside corporate boardrooms. The Reality of Quarterly Pressure I want to show you what quarterly reporting actually looks like from the inside. Let me paint you a picture. It's week seven of the quarter, and you're in a...
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How to Get Smarter by Arguing with People who Disagree with You
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
What if I told you that the people who disagree with you are actually your secret weapon for better thinking? Just last month, my wife and I had a heated argument about studio changes I wanted to make here on the ranch. Her immediate reaction was about cost. Mine was about productivity and creativity. We were talking past each other completely. But when I applied what I'm about to teach you, we discovered we were both right—and found a solution that addressed both concerns without compromising either. What started as an argument became a session where each of us was heard and...
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How to See Opportunities Others Miss
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
In 2005, I had a ten-minute conversation at San Jose Airport that generated billions in revenue for HP. But here's what's fascinating: three other HP executives heard the exact same conversation and saw nothing special about it. If you read Monday's Studio Notes, you know this story from the emotional side—what it felt like to have that breakthrough moment, the internal resistance I faced, the personal transformation that followed. Today I'm delivering on my promise to give you the complete tactical methodology behind that insight. I'm going to show you the systematic framework I call...
info_outlineMastering Divergent Thinking Skills
Today marks the beginning of a series of episodes introducing you to five creative thinking skills. Future episodes will explore each skill's background, steps, application, and examples. In this episode, we'll explore how mastering divergent thinking skills can transform your life, turning obstacles into opportunities and making the impossible seem possible. Remember to subscribe so you don't miss out on any upcoming episodes. Let's get started.
The Power of Divergent Thinking
Harnessing the power of divergent thinking is essential in mastering creative thinking. Divergent thinking is the cornerstone of creativity. It enables individuals and teams to generate multiple solutions to a problem, diverging from linear thinking, which seeks to find one correct solution. You can break free from your usual patterns and tap into your creative potential by using divergent thinking. Today, we'll explore divergent thinking and how mastering it can unlock your creativity.
Background of Divergent Thinking
Divergent thinking involves generating many ideas or solutions to a single problem. Imagine opening your mind's toolbox when faced with a challenge and exploring every tool, idea, and approach rather than just reaching for the usual hammer or screwdriver.
History and Development
Psychologist J. P. Guilford first conceptualized divergent thinking in the 1950s. During this period, creativity and cognitive processes became central to psychological studies. Guilford distinguished between convergent and divergent thinking, highlighting the latter's role in creativity. While convergent thinking converges on a single, correct solution, divergent thinking generates multiple potential solutions, paving the way for innovative thinking and creativity. Over the decades, this concept has evolved and been embraced as a critical skill for problem-solving and generating novel ideas.
Characteristics of Divergent Thinking
Divergent thinking has several critical characteristics that drive its effectiveness:
1. Generates Multiple Solutions: It thrives on generating numerous possibilities without restriction.
2. Promotes Originality: It encourages creating unique and novel ideas, pushing thinkers to explore beyond conventional ideas.
3. Encourages Risk-Taking: It involves exploring the unknown and taking risks, seeing failure as part of the creative process.
4. Flexibility: This enables shifting approaches quickly and viewing problems from multiple perspectives.
5. Non-Linear Thinking: It allows for unexpected connections and conclusions to emerge.
6. Encourages Curiosity and Exploration: A divergent thinker enjoys exploring various possibilities, seeking understanding and multiple approaches.
Comparisons with Convergent Thinking
Divergent thinking thrives on quantity, encouraging open-ended exploration beyond traditional boundaries. In contrast, convergent thinking evaluates and chooses among the options generated by divergent thinking. Together, they encompass a full cycle of the creative process. Divergent thinking starts the cycle, while convergent thinking focuses on refining ideas into practical solutions. Each has its place in problem-solving and innovation.
Importance of Divergent Thinking
Divergent thinking is crucial in a rapidly changing world. It fosters adaptability, allowing individuals and organizations to thrive in uncertain environments. This approach encourages innovation and continuous improvement, which is particularly valuable in technology and other fields requiring constant advancements. Divergent thinking enhances learning and understanding by examining topics from multiple viewpoints, leading to comprehensive insights and greater empathy. Mastering divergent thinking equips individuals with flexibility, creativity, and resilience to tackle 21st-century challenges.
How to Master Divergent Thinking
Mastering divergent thinking involves developing a mindset and skill set that enables endless possibilities. Here are practical steps and exercises to cultivate this capability:
Mindset Shift
Adopting a mindset conducive to divergent thinking involves:
1. Fostering Curiosity: Cultivate an insatiable curiosity about the world.
2. Welcoming Failure: See failure as a stepping stone to innovation.
3. Practicing Open-mindedness: Challenge existing beliefs and be open to new ideas.
4. Encouraging Idea Generation without Immediate Judgment: Brainstorm freely without early critique.
5. Seeking Diverse Experiences: Immerse yourself in various environments, cultures, and fields.
6. Practicing Discomfort: Step out of your comfort zone regularly.
Exercises and Practices
Enhance your divergent thinking skills with these exercises:
1. Brainstorming Sessions: Regularly engage in brainstorming on various topics.
2. Daily Creativity Challenges: Set a daily creative challenge for yourself.
3. SCAMPER Technique: Use the SCAMPER technique to innovate everyday objects or problems.
4. Thought Experiments: Engage in thought experiments with unusual scenarios.
5. Ask Question: Use a set of questions, like the Killer Question Card Deck from Innovation.
6. Change Your Environment: Alter your surroundings to spark creativity.
7. Reverse Thinking: Start with the desired outcome and work backward.
8. Play and Experimentation: Dedicate time to play and experiment without specific goals.
9. Interdisciplinary Learning: Explore subjects outside your expertise.
When to Use Divergent Thinking
Divergent thinking is beneficial in various scenarios, such as:
1. Brainstorming and Ideation Phases
2. Problem-Solving Situations
3. Creative Endeavors
4. Strategic Planning
5. Conflict Resolution
6. Personal Growth
When Not to Use Divergent Thinking
However, divergent thinking may not be effective in:
1. Time-Sensitive Decisions
2. High-Risk Environments
3. When Clarity and Simplicity are Required
4. During the Implementation Phase
5. In Highly Regulated Industries
Conclusion
In the next episode, we'll focus on convergent thinking and its role in mastering creative thinking skills. Subscribe so you don't miss out on upcoming episodes. In the meantime, cultivate your divergent thinking skills to enhance innovation and unlock new possibilities. Remember, you can develop creativity with practice.