Why Great Innovators Read Rooms and not Just Data
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
Release Date: 07/29/2025
Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney
In August 2025, Polish researchers tested something nobody had thought to check: what happens to doctors' skills after they rely on AI assistance? The AI worked perfectly—catching problems during colonoscopies, flagging abnormalities faster than human eyes could. But when researchers pulled the AI away, the doctors' detection rates had dropped. They'd become less skilled at spotting problems on their own. We're all making decisions like this right now. A solution fixes the immediate problem—but creates a second-order consequence that's harder to see and often more damaging than what we...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where the market research is mixed. Or a career pivot where you can't predict which path leads where. You want more information. More time. More certainty. But you're not going to get it. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals—poker players, venture capitalists, military strategists—consistently make better decisions than the rest of us in exactly...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
Try to go through a day without using an analogy. I guarantee you'll fail within an hour. Your morning coffee tastes like yesterday's batch. Traffic is moving like molasses. Your boss sounds like a broken record. Every comparison you make—every single one—is your brain's way of understanding the world. You can't turn it off. When someone told you ChatGPT is "like having a smart assistant," your brain immediately knew what to expect—and what to worry about. When Netflix called itself "the HBO of streaming," investors understood the strategy instantly. These comparisons aren't just...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
$37 billion. That's how much gets wasted annually on marketing budgets because of poor attribution and misunderstanding of what actually drives results. Companies' credit campaigns that didn't work. They kill initiatives that were actually succeeding. They double down on coincidences while ignoring what's actually driving outcomes. Three executives lost their jobs this month for making the same mistake. They presented data showing success after their initiatives were launched. Boards approved promotions. Then someone asked the one question nobody thought to ask: "Could something else...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
You see a headline: "Study Shows Coffee Drinkers Live Longer." You share it in 3 seconds flat. But here's what just happened—you confused correlation with causation, inductive observation with deductive proof, and you just became a vector for misinformation. Right now, millions of people are doing the exact same thing, spreading beliefs they think are facts, making decisions based on patterns that don't exist, all while feeling absolutely certain they're thinking clearly. We live in a world drowning in information—but starving for truth. Every day, you're presented with hundreds of...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
The Crisis We're Not Talking About We're living through the greatest thinking crisis in human history—and most people don't even realize it's happening. Right now, AI generates your answers before you've finished asking the question. Search engines remember everything so you don't have to. Algorithms curate your reality, telling you what to think before you've had the chance to think for yourself. We've built the most sophisticated cognitive tools humanity has ever known, and in doing so, we've systematically dismantled our ability to use our own minds. A recent MIT study found that students...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
Most innovation leaders are performing someone else's version of innovation thinking. I've spent decades in this field. Worked with Fortune 100 companies. And here's what I see happening everywhere. Brilliant leaders following external frameworks. Copying methodologies from people they admire. Shifting their approach based on whatever's trendy. But they never develop their own innovation thinking skills. Today, I'd like to share a simple practice that has transformed my life. And I'll show you exactly how I do it. The Problem Here's what I see in corporate America. Leaders are reacting to...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
Michael Dell and his investors spent twenty-five billion dollars to buy back Dell Technologies. But they weren't really buying a company. They were buying freedom from quarterly earnings pressure. I'm Phil McKinney, former CTO of Hewlett-Packard, and I witnessed how this pressure shaped decisions for years. Today, we are exploring why the misses what actually happens inside corporate boardrooms. The Reality of Quarterly Pressure I want to show you what quarterly reporting actually looks like from the inside. Let me paint you a picture. It's week seven of the quarter, and you're in a...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
What if I told you that the people who disagree with you are actually your secret weapon for better thinking? Just last month, my wife and I had a heated argument about studio changes I wanted to make here on the ranch. Her immediate reaction was about cost. Mine was about productivity and creativity. We were talking past each other completely. But when I applied what I'm about to teach you, we discovered we were both right—and found a solution that addressed both concerns without compromising either. What started as an argument became a session where each of us was heard and...
info_outlineKiller Innovations with Phil McKinney
In 2005, I had a ten-minute conversation at San Jose Airport that generated billions in revenue for HP. But here's what's fascinating: three other HP executives heard the exact same conversation and saw nothing special about it. If you read Monday's Studio Notes, you know this story from the emotional side—what it felt like to have that breakthrough moment, the internal resistance I faced, the personal transformation that followed. Today I'm delivering on my promise to give you the complete tactical methodology behind that insight. I'm going to show you the systematic framework I call...
info_outlineYou know that moment when you walk into a meeting and immediately sense the mood in the room? Or when a proposal looks perfect on paper, but something feels off? That's your intuition working—and it's more sophisticated than most people realize.
Every leader has experienced this: sensing which team member to approach with a sensitive request before you've consciously analyzed the personalities involved. Knowing a client is about to object even when they haven't voiced concerns. Feeling that a project timeline is unrealistic before you've done the detailed math.
That instinctive awareness isn't luck or mystical insight—it's your brain rapidly processing patterns, experience, and environmental cues. The leaders known for "amazing judgment" haven't been blessed with superior gut feelings. They've learned to systematically enhance this natural capability through practical thinking.
By the end of this post, you'll understand the science behind intuitive judgment, why some people seem to have consistently better instincts, and how to use Practical Thinking Skills to make your own intuition more reliable and actionable.
What Your Intuition Really Is
Intuition is your brain's rapid processing of experiences, patterns, and environmental cues that occur below the level of conscious awareness. When you sense the mood in a room, your mind is instantly analyzing dozens of subtle signals: body language, tone of voice, seating arrangements, who's speaking and who's staying quiet.
This isn't mystical—it's sophisticated pattern recognition. Your brain has stored thousands of similar situations and can quickly compare current circumstances to past experiences, delivering a "gut feeling" about what's likely to happen or what approach will work.
Everyone has this capability. You use it constantly:
-
Walking into a meeting and immediately sensing the mood in the room
-
Knowing which team member to approach with a sensitive request
-
Feeling that a project timeline is unrealistic before you've done the math
-
Recognizing when a client is about to say no, even if they haven't said it yet
-
Sensing that a proposed solution won't work in your company culture
The difference between people with "great intuition" and everyone else isn't the quality of their initial gut feelings—it's how systematically they validate, investigate, and act on those insights.
Why Some Leaders Seem to Have "Amazing Intuition"
Leaders who are known for excellent judgment have developed what I call practical thinking—the systematic approach to using their knowledge and experience to enhance their intuitive insights.
Here's what they do differently:
They treat gut feelings as valuable data, not emotions to dismiss or blind impulses to follow. When something feels off, they investigate systematically rather than ignoring the signal or acting without validation.
They've learned to distinguish between intuition based on genuine patterns and reactions driven by personal bias, stress, or recent events. They can separate "this timeline feels aggressive because similar projects have failed" from "this timeline feels aggressive because I'm overwhelmed today."
They apply structured approaches to validate their intuitive insights before making important decisions. They don't just trust their gut—they use their gut as the starting point for systematic investigation.
They understand stakeholder psychology at a deeper level, using their intuitive read of people to design approaches that work with human nature rather than against it.
The leaders with reputations for "brilliant intuition" have simply learned to make their natural pattern recognition more reliable and actionable through systematic frameworks.
Practical Thinking: Making Intuition Systematically Reliable
Practical thinking is the systematic approach to using your knowledge and experience to validate, investigate, and effectively implement your intuitive insights. It transforms valuable gut feelings into consistently reliable judgment.
Think of intuition as your brain's early detection system, and practical thinking as the methodology for investigating and acting on those signals systematically.
Your intuition signals: "This reorganization plan feels wrong."
Practical thinking investigates: "What specific elements am I reacting to? Is it the timeline, the stakeholder alignment assumptions, or the communication approach?"
Your intuition warns: "This customer seems hesitant despite saying yes."
Practical thinking explores: "What might they be worried about that they can't voice directly? How can I address their real concerns?"
Your intuition detects: "This team meeting feels tense."
Practical thinking examines: "What underlying conflicts or pressures might be driving this dynamic? What does each person need to feel successful?"
When you combine intuitive insight with systematic investigation frameworks, you develop judgment that gets more accurate with experience. This is how great leaders seem to "just know" what will work—they've learned to systematically validate and act on the patterns their intuition detects.
The Practical Thinking Framework™
The framework consists of three interconnected skills that transform your natural intuitive insights into reliable decision-making capabilities. Unlike traditional analytical approaches that ignore gut feelings or emotional approaches that follow instincts blindly, practical thinking creates a systematic bridge between your intuitive awareness and effective action. The power comes from combining all three skills—most people excel at one or two but miss the integration that makes intuitive judgment consistently reliable.
Step 1: Reality Recognition (Not Problem Definition)
What it is: Use your intuitive insights to see situations as they actually exist, not as frameworks or org charts suggest they should be structured.
Why it matters: Your gut feelings often detect mismatches between official reality and actual reality. Most decision failures happen because people address the stated situation rather than the real situation.
How to apply it:
-
Start with your intuitive read of what's really happening
-
Map all stakeholders who will actually be affected, including informal influencers
-
Identify what information is missing and why it might be missing
-
Acknowledge constraints and pressures that aren't officially discussed
-
Recognize the emotional and political landscape your intuition is detecting
Example in action: Your gut says a reorganization plan "won't work" even though it looks logical on paper. Reality Recognition helps you investigate: your intuition is detecting that the timeline is too aggressive for this culture, key influencers weren't consulted, and the plan ignores current team workload realities. Your gut feeling was accurate—it sensed the gap between the plan and actual organizational dynamics.
Common mistake: Dismissing gut feelings because the official version looks reasonable.
Step 2: Experience Application (Not Best Practice Research)
What it is: Use your knowledge of similar situations and these specific stakeholders to adapt your approach, rather than applying generic solutions.
Why it matters: Your intuition draws on your unique experience with these people, this culture, and these types of challenges. That contextual knowledge is more valuable than best practices from other organizations.
How to apply it:
-
Draw on similar situations you've navigated with these stakeholders
-
Consider what you know about how this culture responds to change
-
Apply lessons from previous successes and failures in this environment
-
Adapt proven approaches to fit current personalities and constraints
-
Trust your experience about what will and won't work with these specific people
Example in action: Your intuition suggests that a client is hesitant about a proposal despite their positive words. Experience Application helps you investigate: you remember that this client typically asks detailed implementation questions when they're serious, but they haven't asked any. Your experience with them suggests they're worried about execution complexity but don't want to seem unsophisticated. You adapt by proactively addressing implementation support rather than pushing for a decision.
Common mistake: Researching what worked elsewhere instead of applying what you know about this specific context.
Step 3: Stakeholder Psychology Reading (Not Stakeholder Management)
What it is: Decode what people really need and fear versus what they say they need, then design approaches that align with their actual psychology.
Why it matters: Most initiatives fail not because of logic or resources, but because they clash with stakeholders' deeper motivations, fears, or unspoken constraints that no one addresses directly.
How to apply it:
-
Listen for what people don't say—the concerns they avoid mentioning
-
Notice emotional patterns—enthusiasm that feels forced, agreement that comes too quickly
-
Identify hidden incentives—what each person needs to succeed in their role
-
Recognize fear patterns—what failure or change would mean for each stakeholder personally
-
Design solutions that make people look good to their bosses, not just solve the stated problem
Example in action: A department head enthusiastically supports your efficiency initiative in meetings, but your gut says they're not really on board. Psychology Reading reveals they're actually worried that improved efficiency will make their large team look unnecessary, threatening their status and job security. Instead of focusing on efficiency benefits, you reframe the initiative as expanding their team's capabilities and strategic value. This transforms resistance into genuine partnership.
The key insight: While others try to convince stakeholders with better arguments, practical thinkers recognize that people's real decisions are driven by emotions, incentives, and fears that are rarely discussed openly. They design solutions that address these psychological realities, not just the stated requirements.
Common mistake: Focusing on logical persuasion when stakeholders are driven by emotional or political concerns they can't voice directly.
Developing Your Practical Thinking Skills
The 30-Day Practical Thinking Challenge
Week 1: Reality Recognition Practice Start documenting your gut feelings about situations and meetings. When something feels off, practice investigating what your intuition might be detecting. What mismatches between official reality and actual reality is your gut picking up on?
Week 2: Experience Application For each significant decision you face, consciously apply your experience with these specific people and situations. Instead of researching best practices, ask: "What do I know from previous similar situations with these stakeholders that should guide my approach?"
Week 3: Psychology Reading Practice reading stakeholder psychology by listening for what people don't say. When someone agrees quickly or shows unexpected enthusiasm, ask yourself: "What might they be worried about that they can't voice directly?" Design small experiments to test your psychological reads.
Week 4: Integrated Framework Combine all three steps for important decisions. Start with your intuitive read (Reality Recognition), apply your contextual experience (Experience Application), then design approaches that address stakeholder psychology (Psychology Reading). Track when this systematic approach improves outcomes.
Practice with others: Share your intuitive insights with trusted colleagues and walk through your practical thinking process. Explaining why you're getting a particular gut feeling often reveals additional insights and helps validate your approach.
Success indicators: You'll know your practical thinking skills are enhancing your intuition when your gut feelings become more accurate, when stakeholders volunteer information they usually keep hidden, and when your solutions work better because they align with how people actually think and behave.
From Gut Feelings to Reliable Judgment
Your intuition is already providing sophisticated insights about stakeholder dynamics, organizational realities, and what will actually work in practice. The challenge isn't developing better gut feelings—it's learning to systematically validate and act on the insights you're already receiving.
Practical thinking doesn't replace your natural judgment—it makes it more reliable, more explainable to others, and more actionable in complex situations. When you can read reality accurately, apply your experience systematically, and understand stakeholder psychology, you develop the type of judgment that improves with every decision.
This is the foundation of Decision Thinking™—the approach I've developed for making effective decisions when information is incomplete, stakeholders have conflicting interests, and the stakes are high. Practical thinking helps you leverage your natural capabilities to navigate complexity that would overwhelm purely analytical approaches.
You already have sophisticated pattern recognition and stakeholder awareness. Practical thinking helps you turn those natural capabilities into systematic competitive advantages.
Ready to develop reliable, practical thinking? Join our community of leaders in Substack Chat where we're exploring this question: What's one situation where you had a strong gut feeling that something was off, but you didn't trust it enough to investigate—and later wished you had?
In the next episode, we will examine how the HP-Fossil partnership could have challenged Apple's dominance in the smartwatch market. Fossil’s Bill Geiser's intuition about Apple entering wearables was dead-on accurate. My assessment of the platform shift was equally accurate. But intuition without the decision-making frameworks to act on it just becomes expensive foresight. It will show how two Fortune 500 giants chose comfort over courage.
Share this with someone who has great instincts but struggles to act on them systematically—you'll be helping them turn natural judgment into reliable leadership capability.