loader from loading.io

Why Great Innovators Read Rooms and not Just Data

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Release Date: 07/29/2025

How to See Opportunities Others Miss show art How to See Opportunities Others Miss

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

In 2005, I had a ten-minute conversation at San Jose Airport that generated billions in revenue for HP. But here's what's fascinating: three other HP executives heard the exact same conversation and saw nothing special about it. If you read Monday's Studio Notes, you know this story from the emotional side—what it felt like to have that breakthrough moment, the internal resistance I faced, the personal transformation that followed. Today I'm delivering on my promise to give you the complete tactical methodology behind that insight. I'm going to show you the systematic framework I call...

info_outline
5 Questions That Can Spot Breakthrough Innovations Before They Happen show art 5 Questions That Can Spot Breakthrough Innovations Before They Happen

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

In October 1903, The New York Times published an editorial mocking the idea of human flight, stating that a successful flying machine might take "from one to ten million years" to develop through the efforts of mathematicians and engineers.  Eight weeks later, on December 17, 1903, the Wright brothers achieved the first powered, controlled flight over the beaches of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, proving the skeptics wrong. The smartest people in the world got this catastrophically wrong. What does that tell us about impossibility itself? Every industry has billion-dollar opportunities...

info_outline
I Evaluated over 30000 Innovation Ideas at HP show art I Evaluated over 30000 Innovation Ideas at HP

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Your best innovation ideas aren't losing to bad ideas – they're losing to exhaustion. I know that sounds counterintuitive. After 30 years of making decisions at HP and CableLabs, I thought I understood why good ideas failed. Market timing. Technical challenges. Resource constraints. Sometimes that was the case … but most of the time, I was wrong. We've created an innovation economy that's too innovative to innovate. And if you're wondering why your breakthrough ideas keep getting ignored, dismissed, or tabled "for later review," this video will show you the real reason. I'm going to...

info_outline
How To Master Lateral Thinking Skills show art How To Master Lateral Thinking Skills

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

A software engineer grabbed a random word from a dictionary – "beehive" – and within hours designed an algorithm that saved his company millions. While his colleagues were working harder, he was thinking differently. This breakthrough didn't come from luck. It came from lateral thinking – a systematic approach to finding solutions hiding in plain sight. I'm Phil McKinney and welcome to my Innovation Studio. In this episode, we will cover the lateral thinking framework. Not theory – a practical, step-by-step system you can use immediately. You'll try your first technique in the next...

info_outline
Why Fail Fast Innovation Advice is Wrong show art Why Fail Fast Innovation Advice is Wrong

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

The most popular piece of innovation advice in Silicon Valley is wrong—and it's killing great ideas before they have a chance to succeed. I can prove it with a story about a glass of water that sat perfectly still while a car bounced beneath it. My name is Phil McKinney. I spent decades as HP's CTO making billion-dollar innovation decisions, and I learned the hard way that following "fail fast" advice cost us billions and robbed the world of breakthrough technologies. Today, I'm going to share five specific signs that indicate when an idea deserves patience instead of being killed...

info_outline
Innovation Partnership Autopsy: HP, Fossil, and the Smartwatch Market show art Innovation Partnership Autopsy: HP, Fossil, and the Smartwatch Market

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Innovation partnerships can create breakthrough markets—or hand them to competitors through terrible decisions. I know because I lived through both outcomes. Bill Geiser from Fossil and I had it exactly right. We built the MetaWatch—a smartwatch with week-long battery life, Bluetooth connectivity, and every feature that would later make the Apple Watch successful. We had HP's massive retail reach, Fossil's manufacturing scale, and the technical vision to create an entirely new market. But our organizations couldn't execute on what we knew was right. Leadership chaos at HP and innovation...

info_outline
Why Great Innovators Read Rooms and not Just Data show art Why Great Innovators Read Rooms and not Just Data

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

You know that moment when you walk into a meeting and immediately sense the mood in the room? Or when a proposal looks perfect on paper, but something feels off? That's your intuition working—and it's more sophisticated than most people realize. Every leader has experienced this: sensing which team member to approach with a sensitive request before you've consciously analyzed the personalities involved. Knowing a client is about to object even when they haven't voiced concerns. Feeling that a project timeline is unrealistic before you've done the detailed math. That instinctive awareness...

info_outline
Why Your Best People Give You The Worst Information show art Why Your Best People Give You The Worst Information

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

The $25 Million Perfect Presentation Picture this: You're in a conference room with 23 executives, everyone has perfect PowerPoint presentations, engineering milestones are ahead of schedule, and you're about to sign off on a $25 million bet that feels like a sure thing. That was the scene at HP when we were developing the Envy 133—the world's first 100% carbon fiber laptop. Everything looked perfect: engineering was ahead of schedule, we projected a $2 billion market opportunity, and the presentations were flawless. Six weeks after launch, Apple shifted the entire thin-and-light laptop...

info_outline
3 Innovation Decision Traps That Kill Breakthrough Ideas (And How to Avoid Them) show art 3 Innovation Decision Traps That Kill Breakthrough Ideas (And How to Avoid Them)

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

Every breakthrough innovation starts the same way: everyone thinks it's a terrible idea. Twitter was dismissed as "breakfast updates." Google looked "too simple." Facebook seemed limited to "just college kids." Yet these "stupid ideas" became some of the biggest winners in tech history. After 30 years making innovation decisions at Fortune 100 companies, I've identified why smart people consistently miss breakthrough opportunities—and how to spot them before everyone else does. Why Smart People Miss Breakthrough Ideas The problem isn't intelligence or experience. It's that we ask the wrong...

info_outline
The $1.2 Billion Innovation Disaster: 5 Decision Mistakes That Kill Breakthrough Technology (HP WebOS Case Study) show art The $1.2 Billion Innovation Disaster: 5 Decision Mistakes That Kill Breakthrough Technology (HP WebOS Case Study)

Killer Innovations with Phil McKinney

In 2011, HP killed a $1.2 billion innovation in just 49 days. I was the Chief Technology Officer who recommended buying it. What happened next reveals why smart people consistently destroy breakthrough technology—and the systematic framework you need to avoid making the same mistake. HP had just spent $1.2 billion acquiring Palm to get WebOS—one of the most advanced mobile operating systems ever created. It had true multitasking when iOS and Android couldn't handle it, an elegant interface design, and breakthrough platform technology. I led the technical due diligence and recommended the...

info_outline
 
More Episodes

You know that moment when you walk into a meeting and immediately sense the mood in the room? Or when a proposal looks perfect on paper, but something feels off? That's your intuition working—and it's more sophisticated than most people realize.

Every leader has experienced this: sensing which team member to approach with a sensitive request before you've consciously analyzed the personalities involved. Knowing a client is about to object even when they haven't voiced concerns. Feeling that a project timeline is unrealistic before you've done the detailed math.

That instinctive awareness isn't luck or mystical insight—it's your brain rapidly processing patterns, experience, and environmental cues. The leaders known for "amazing judgment" haven't been blessed with superior gut feelings. They've learned to systematically enhance this natural capability through practical thinking.

By the end of this post, you'll understand the science behind intuitive judgment, why some people seem to have consistently better instincts, and how to use Practical Thinking Skills to make your own intuition more reliable and actionable.

What Your Intuition Really Is

Intuition is your brain's rapid processing of experiences, patterns, and environmental cues that occur below the level of conscious awareness. When you sense the mood in a room, your mind is instantly analyzing dozens of subtle signals: body language, tone of voice, seating arrangements, who's speaking and who's staying quiet.

This isn't mystical—it's sophisticated pattern recognition. Your brain has stored thousands of similar situations and can quickly compare current circumstances to past experiences, delivering a "gut feeling" about what's likely to happen or what approach will work.

Everyone has this capability. You use it constantly:

  • Walking into a meeting and immediately sensing the mood in the room

  • Knowing which team member to approach with a sensitive request

  • Feeling that a project timeline is unrealistic before you've done the math

  • Recognizing when a client is about to say no, even if they haven't said it yet

  • Sensing that a proposed solution won't work in your company culture

The difference between people with "great intuition" and everyone else isn't the quality of their initial gut feelings—it's how systematically they validate, investigate, and act on those insights.

Why Some Leaders Seem to Have "Amazing Intuition"

Leaders who are known for excellent judgment have developed what I call practical thinking—the systematic approach to using their knowledge and experience to enhance their intuitive insights.

Here's what they do differently:

They treat gut feelings as valuable data, not emotions to dismiss or blind impulses to follow. When something feels off, they investigate systematically rather than ignoring the signal or acting without validation.

They've learned to distinguish between intuition based on genuine patterns and reactions driven by personal bias, stress, or recent events. They can separate "this timeline feels aggressive because similar projects have failed" from "this timeline feels aggressive because I'm overwhelmed today."

They apply structured approaches to validate their intuitive insights before making important decisions. They don't just trust their gut—they use their gut as the starting point for systematic investigation.

They understand stakeholder psychology at a deeper level, using their intuitive read of people to design approaches that work with human nature rather than against it.

The leaders with reputations for "brilliant intuition" have simply learned to make their natural pattern recognition more reliable and actionable through systematic frameworks.

Practical Thinking: Making Intuition Systematically Reliable

Practical thinking is the systematic approach to using your knowledge and experience to validate, investigate, and effectively implement your intuitive insights. It transforms valuable gut feelings into consistently reliable judgment.

Think of intuition as your brain's early detection system, and practical thinking as the methodology for investigating and acting on those signals systematically.

Your intuition signals: "This reorganization plan feels wrong."

Practical thinking investigates: "What specific elements am I reacting to? Is it the timeline, the stakeholder alignment assumptions, or the communication approach?"

Your intuition warns: "This customer seems hesitant despite saying yes."

Practical thinking explores: "What might they be worried about that they can't voice directly? How can I address their real concerns?"

Your intuition detects: "This team meeting feels tense."

Practical thinking examines: "What underlying conflicts or pressures might be driving this dynamic? What does each person need to feel successful?"

When you combine intuitive insight with systematic investigation frameworks, you develop judgment that gets more accurate with experience. This is how great leaders seem to "just know" what will work—they've learned to systematically validate and act on the patterns their intuition detects.

The Practical Thinking Framework™

The framework consists of three interconnected skills that transform your natural intuitive insights into reliable decision-making capabilities. Unlike traditional analytical approaches that ignore gut feelings or emotional approaches that follow instincts blindly, practical thinking creates a systematic bridge between your intuitive awareness and effective action. The power comes from combining all three skills—most people excel at one or two but miss the integration that makes intuitive judgment consistently reliable.

Step 1: Reality Recognition (Not Problem Definition)

What it is: Use your intuitive insights to see situations as they actually exist, not as frameworks or org charts suggest they should be structured.

Why it matters: Your gut feelings often detect mismatches between official reality and actual reality. Most decision failures happen because people address the stated situation rather than the real situation.

How to apply it:

  • Start with your intuitive read of what's really happening

  • Map all stakeholders who will actually be affected, including informal influencers

  • Identify what information is missing and why it might be missing

  • Acknowledge constraints and pressures that aren't officially discussed

  • Recognize the emotional and political landscape your intuition is detecting

Example in action: Your gut says a reorganization plan "won't work" even though it looks logical on paper. Reality Recognition helps you investigate: your intuition is detecting that the timeline is too aggressive for this culture, key influencers weren't consulted, and the plan ignores current team workload realities. Your gut feeling was accurate—it sensed the gap between the plan and actual organizational dynamics.

Common mistake: Dismissing gut feelings because the official version looks reasonable.

Step 2: Experience Application (Not Best Practice Research)

What it is: Use your knowledge of similar situations and these specific stakeholders to adapt your approach, rather than applying generic solutions.

Why it matters: Your intuition draws on your unique experience with these people, this culture, and these types of challenges. That contextual knowledge is more valuable than best practices from other organizations.

How to apply it:

  • Draw on similar situations you've navigated with these stakeholders

  • Consider what you know about how this culture responds to change

  • Apply lessons from previous successes and failures in this environment

  • Adapt proven approaches to fit current personalities and constraints

  • Trust your experience about what will and won't work with these specific people

Example in action: Your intuition suggests that a client is hesitant about a proposal despite their positive words. Experience Application helps you investigate: you remember that this client typically asks detailed implementation questions when they're serious, but they haven't asked any. Your experience with them suggests they're worried about execution complexity but don't want to seem unsophisticated. You adapt by proactively addressing implementation support rather than pushing for a decision.

Common mistake: Researching what worked elsewhere instead of applying what you know about this specific context.

Step 3: Stakeholder Psychology Reading (Not Stakeholder Management)

What it is: Decode what people really need and fear versus what they say they need, then design approaches that align with their actual psychology.

Why it matters: Most initiatives fail not because of logic or resources, but because they clash with stakeholders' deeper motivations, fears, or unspoken constraints that no one addresses directly.

How to apply it:

  • Listen for what people don't say—the concerns they avoid mentioning

  • Notice emotional patterns—enthusiasm that feels forced, agreement that comes too quickly

  • Identify hidden incentives—what each person needs to succeed in their role

  • Recognize fear patterns—what failure or change would mean for each stakeholder personally

  • Design solutions that make people look good to their bosses, not just solve the stated problem

Example in action: A department head enthusiastically supports your efficiency initiative in meetings, but your gut says they're not really on board. Psychology Reading reveals they're actually worried that improved efficiency will make their large team look unnecessary, threatening their status and job security. Instead of focusing on efficiency benefits, you reframe the initiative as expanding their team's capabilities and strategic value. This transforms resistance into genuine partnership.

The key insight: While others try to convince stakeholders with better arguments, practical thinkers recognize that people's real decisions are driven by emotions, incentives, and fears that are rarely discussed openly. They design solutions that address these psychological realities, not just the stated requirements.

Common mistake: Focusing on logical persuasion when stakeholders are driven by emotional or political concerns they can't voice directly.

Developing Your Practical Thinking Skills

The 30-Day Practical Thinking Challenge

Week 1: Reality Recognition Practice Start documenting your gut feelings about situations and meetings. When something feels off, practice investigating what your intuition might be detecting. What mismatches between official reality and actual reality is your gut picking up on?

Week 2: Experience Application For each significant decision you face, consciously apply your experience with these specific people and situations. Instead of researching best practices, ask: "What do I know from previous similar situations with these stakeholders that should guide my approach?"

Week 3: Psychology Reading Practice reading stakeholder psychology by listening for what people don't say. When someone agrees quickly or shows unexpected enthusiasm, ask yourself: "What might they be worried about that they can't voice directly?" Design small experiments to test your psychological reads.

Week 4: Integrated Framework Combine all three steps for important decisions. Start with your intuitive read (Reality Recognition), apply your contextual experience (Experience Application), then design approaches that address stakeholder psychology (Psychology Reading). Track when this systematic approach improves outcomes.

Practice with others: Share your intuitive insights with trusted colleagues and walk through your practical thinking process. Explaining why you're getting a particular gut feeling often reveals additional insights and helps validate your approach.

Success indicators: You'll know your practical thinking skills are enhancing your intuition when your gut feelings become more accurate, when stakeholders volunteer information they usually keep hidden, and when your solutions work better because they align with how people actually think and behave.

From Gut Feelings to Reliable Judgment

Your intuition is already providing sophisticated insights about stakeholder dynamics, organizational realities, and what will actually work in practice. The challenge isn't developing better gut feelings—it's learning to systematically validate and act on the insights you're already receiving.

Practical thinking doesn't replace your natural judgment—it makes it more reliable, more explainable to others, and more actionable in complex situations. When you can read reality accurately, apply your experience systematically, and understand stakeholder psychology, you develop the type of judgment that improves with every decision.

This is the foundation of Decision Thinking™—the approach I've developed for making effective decisions when information is incomplete, stakeholders have conflicting interests, and the stakes are high. Practical thinking helps you leverage your natural capabilities to navigate complexity that would overwhelm purely analytical approaches.

You already have sophisticated pattern recognition and stakeholder awareness. Practical thinking helps you turn those natural capabilities into systematic competitive advantages.

Ready to develop reliable, practical thinking? Join our community of leaders in Substack Chat where we're exploring this question: What's one situation where you had a strong gut feeling that something was off, but you didn't trust it enough to investigate—and later wished you had?

In the next episode, we will examine how the HP-Fossil partnership could have challenged Apple's dominance in the smartwatch market. Fossil’s Bill Geiser's intuition about Apple entering wearables was dead-on accurate. My assessment of the platform shift was equally accurate. But intuition without the decision-making frameworks to act on it just becomes expensive foresight. It will show how two Fortune 500 giants chose comfort over courage.

Share this with someone who has great instincts but struggles to act on them systematically—you'll be helping them turn natural judgment into reliable leadership capability.