loader from loading.io

Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Release Date: 04/01/2021

Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument show art Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

One of the most common arguments against AI safety is: Here’s an example of a time someone was worried about something, but it didn’t happen. Therefore, AI, which you are worried about, also won’t happen. I always give the obvious answer: “Okay, but there are other examples of times someone was worried about something, and it did happen, right? How do we know AI isn’t more like those?” The people I’m arguing with always seem so surprised by this response, as if I’m committing some sort of betrayal by destroying their beautiful argument. The first hundred times this happened,...

info_outline
Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness show art Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Robin Hanson of more or less believes medicine doesn’t work [EDIT: see his response where he says this is an inaccurate summary of his position. Further chain of responses and ] This is a strong claim. It would be easy to round Hanson’s position off to something weaker, like “extra health care isn’t valuable on the margin”. This is how most people interpret the studies he cites. Still, I think his current, actual position is that medicine doesn’t work. For example, :  

info_outline
Ye Olde Bay Area House Party show art Ye Olde Bay Area House Party

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

[previously in series: , , , , ] When that April with his sunlight fierce The rainy winter of the coast doth pierce And filleth every spirit with such hale As horniness engenders in the male Then folk go out in crop tops and in shorts Their bodies firm from exercise and sports And men gaze at the tall girls and the shawties And San Franciscans long to go to parties.  

info_outline
Updates on Lumina Probiotic show art Updates on Lumina Probiotic

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Lumina, the genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium that , is back in the news after lowering its price from $20,000 to and getting endorsements from , , and (as well as anti-endorsements from and ). A few points that have come up:

info_outline
Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate show art Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Original post . Table of contents below. I want to especially highlight three things. First, Saar wrote a response to my post (and to zoonosis arguments in general). I’ve put a summary and some my responses at 1.11, but you can read the full post . Second, I kind of made fun of Peter for giving some very extreme odds, and I mentioned they were sort of trolling, but he’s convinced me they were 100% trolling. Many people held these poorly-done calculations against Peter, so I want to make it clear that’s my fault for mis-presenting it. See 3.1 for more details. Third, in my original post,...

info_outline
Links For April 2024 show art Links For April 2024

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

[I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.]  

info_outline
Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 show art Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to advertise their upcoming meetups and make a bigger deal of it than usual so that irregular attendees can attend. This is one of those times. This year we have spring meetups planned in over eighty cities, from Tokyo, Japan to Seminyak, Indonesia. Thanks to all the organizers who responded to my request for details, and to Meetups Czar Skyler and the Less Wrong team for making this happen. You can find the list below, in the following order: Africa & Middle East  Asia-Pacific (including Australia) ...

info_outline
Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate show art Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he’s been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias. His method - called Rootclaim - uses Bayesian reasoning, a branch of math that explains the right way to weigh evidence. This isn’t exactly new. Everyone supports Bayesian reasoning. The statisticians support it, I support it, Nate Silver wrote a whole book supporting it. But the joke goes that you do Bayesian reasoning by doing normal reasoning while muttering “Bayes, Bayes, Bayes” under your breath. Nobody - not the statisticians, not Nate Silver,...

info_outline
In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities show art In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

It’s every blogger’s curse to return to the same arguments again and again. Matt Yglesias has to keep writing “maybe we should do popular things instead of unpopular ones”, Freddie de Boer has to keep writing “the way culture depicts mental illness is bad”, and for whatever reason, I keep getting in fights about whether you can have probabilities for non-repeating, hard-to-model events. For example: What is the probability that Joe Biden will win the 2024 election? What is the probability that people will land on Mars before 2050? What is the probability that AI will destroy...

info_outline
The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs show art The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

I have data from two big Internet surveys, and . Both asked questions about IQ: The average LessWronger reported their IQ as 138. The average ClearerThinking user reported their IQ as 130. These are implausibly high. Only 1/200 people has an IQ of 138 or higher. 1/50 people have IQ 130, but the ClearerThinking survey used crowdworkers (eg Mechanical Turk) who should be totally average. Okay, fine, so people lie about their IQ (or foolishly trust fake Internet IQ tests). Big deal, right? But these don’t look like lies. Both surveys asked for SAT scores, which are known to correspond to...

info_outline
 
More Episodes

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/oh-the-places-youll-go-when-trying

 

I.

What is the right dose of Lexapro (escitalopram)?

The official FDA packet insert recommends a usual dose of 10 mg, and a maximum safe dose of 20 mg. It says studies fail to show 20 mg works any better than 10, but you can use 20 if you really want to.

But Jakubovski et al's Dose-Response Relationship Of Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors tries to figure out which doses of which antidepressants are equivalent to each other, and comes up with the following suggestion (ignore the graph, read the caption)

16.7 mg Lexapro equals 20 mg of paroxetine (Paxil) or fluoxetine (Prozac). But the maximum approved doses of those medications are 60 mg and 80 mg, respectively. If we convert these to mg imipramine equivalents like the study above uses, Prozac maxes out at 400, Paxil at 300, and Lexapro at 120. So Lexapro has a very low maximum dose compared to other similar antidepressants. Why?

Because Lexapro (escitalopram) is a derivative of the older drug Celexa (citalopram). Sometime around 2011, the FDA freaked out that high doses of citalopram might cause a deadly heart condition called torsade de pointes, and lowered the maximum dose to prevent this. Since then it's been pretty conclusively shown that the FDA was mostly wrong about this and kind of bungled the whole process. But they forgot to ever unbungle it, so citalopram still has a lower maximum dose than every other antidepressant. When escitalopram was invented, it inherited its parent chemical's unusually-low maximum dose, and remains at that level today [edit: I got the timing messed up, see here]