France's Reset With New Caledonia Could Hit Some Roadblocks

France has restarted negotiations toward defining its future relationship with New Caledonia, a French overseas territory in the southwest Pacific that is home to about 293,000 people. The move ends nine months of political limbo following violent protests, including roadblocks and riots, that erupted across the territory in May 2024.
The protests came in reaction to French President Emmanuel Macron's plan to add more than 25,000 people to the territory's electoral roll to reflect inhabitants who have arrived, mainly from mainland France, over the past two decades. The rolls had been restricted as part of an agreement ending an armed independence movement in New Caledonia in 1988.
The largely pro-independence indigenous islanders, who comprise about 41 percent of the population, feared the change would have diluted their influence in future elections.
During his visit to New Caledonia to announce the reopening of negotiations in late February, French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls referred to the protests, saying, "There is a before and an after." He characterized negotiations as an "opportunity" and said it was his "responsibility … to find a way" toward an agreement that satisfies everyone. But that won't be easy.
The islands of New Caledonia were first colonized by France in the mid-19th century. After World War II, they were designated an "overseas territory" with greater citizenship rights. But entrenched poverty and disenfranchisement in Kanak communities ignited an armed rebellion against French rule in the 1980s.
Subsequent talks between the French government and island leaders resulted in the 1988 Matignon Accord and the 1998 Noumea Accord, which together outlined provisions for greater autonomy for New Caledonia, recognition of indigenous rights and investment in rural development, while guaranteeing that three referendums on independence would be held.
An additional measure meant to prevent Kanaks from being politically marginalized restricted the electoral roll for the referendums as well as local elections to indigenous voters and inhabitants residing in the territory prior to 1998.
The accords led to some progress in bridging the development gap, but significant disparities between the Kanak and non-Kanak populations remain. New Caledonia has one of the highest GDP per capita in the region, at $33,516 in 2022, compared to $5,405 in Fiji, for instance. Yet at 38 percent, the unemployment rate among Kanaks is more than three times the rate of 11 percent for the general New Caledonian population.
And according to a recent study in North Province and Loyalty Islands, where communities are mainly indigenous, 62 percent and 77 percent of people respectively have lower than average living standards.
Political frustrations also increased in 2021, after the third and final referendum under the Noumea Accords resulted in another defeat for the pro-independence movement. The first two votes, in 2018 and 2020, had shown a narrowing margin of victory for the pro-France majority, at 57 percent and 53 percent respectively.
But Kanaks sought to postpone the final referendum, as it was scheduled to take place during the pandemic at a time when their cultural mourning rites would prevent many who had lost family members from going to the polls. When the vote went ahead as planned, they boycotted, resulting in a 98 percent victory for the pro-France position. As a result, the pro-independence movement has refused to accept the referendum's outcome, and many maintain calls for full self-determination.
A major test will be when negotiations again broach the subject of electoral reforms, which French authorities have announced are back on the table.
Two years later, Macron's proposed electoral reforms, on top of his refusal to countenance a rerun of the referendum, inflamed existing grievances, and when those reforms were passed by a parliamentary vote in 2024, large numbers of Kanak youth took to the streets. Yet while protesters ...