The African Union Is Giving Djibouti's Diplomatic Model a Try

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti's long-serving foreign minister, took office as the African Union Commission's chair yesterday, four weeks after defeating Raila Odinga, Kenya's former prime minister and perennial opposition leader, in the race for the job. He succeeds Chad's Moussa Faki, who leaves after serving two four-year terms. Youssouf's victory represents a diplomatic victory for one of the continent's smallest but diplomatically agile states.
But it is being seen more as a setback for Kenya's ambitious foreign policy under President William Ruto.
Though recently at odds with Odinga due to their domestic political differences, Ruto took the campaign for the commission chair personally, mobilizing the entire Kenyan government in an attempt to secure the post for his former rival. Ruto likely preferred the thought of Odinga occupied with work at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, as it would bolster his own re-election prospects.
If so, his calculations recall those of former South African President Jacob Zuma, who ensured that Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma - his former wife and domestic political rival - was elected AU Commission chair in 2012.
While the bloc's major donors - Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and South Africa - have seldom held the top position, there has been a clear pattern of success for candidates backed by respected or influential heads of state.
Dlamini-Zuma hailed from the continent's economic powerhouse, for instance, and at the time the outgoing Faki first won the post in 2017, he benefited from the influential support of then-Chadian President Idriss Deby, who had just held the more prominent position of AU Chair. One might have expected the same dynamic to play in Odinga's favor.
However, Ruto did not anticipate the level of opposition the prospect of a Kenyan at the head of the commission would generate. Early in the race, Youssouf received the endorsement of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which includes 27 African members, in part because Ruto's portrayal of Kenya as a staunch Western ally alienated states that were more sympathetic to Palestine.
There were also doubts about whether Odinga would be fully autonomous in his approach to the role or instead serve as a proxy for Nairobi.
For all the headwinds Odinga faced, Youssouf also certainly benefited from his long experience in Djibouti, which despite its small size has an active diplomatic profile as part of its efforts to secure external investment in support of its stability. Djibouti hosts the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD, the regional bloc comprising eight member states that oversees trade and diplomacy in the Horn of Africa.
Unlike other groups on the continent, IGAD is supported by several non-African partner nations, including France, the U.K. and the U.S., highlighting the kind of multilateral networks of support Djibouti has been cultivating.
Djibouti's approach serves as a model for leveraging great power competition for its own advantage, without aligning itself with one side or the other.
The degree to which Djibouti has successfully leveraged its strategic location on the Horn of Africa is a further sign of its active diplomacy. It is home to at least eight foreign military bases from diverse and even rival countries. These include Camp Lemonnier, the U.S. military's sole permanent base in Africa, as well as a French military and naval base that is among France's largest overseas contingents.
But Djibouti also houses China's first overseas military base, as well as bases for Italy, Japan and South Korea, all of which were established to combat piracy and defend vital economic interests in the Red Sea. This sizable foreign presence has contributed to ensuring Djibouti's stability by incentivizing global powers to keep it insulated from other conflicts in the Horn of Africa.
These bases have also resulted in significant economic investments in the country, allowing it to boast a considerably higher GDP...