Are you among the top performing managers? – Overconfidence and its causes | with Collin Raymond
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
Release Date: 07/15/2024
Are equilibria a good predictor for real-life behaviour? | with Colin Camerer
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we explore the most classical topic from Game Theory – equilibrium analysis. Our guest Colin Camerer shares insights on the game LUPI (‘lowest unique positive integer’). We first discuss the actual mathematical equilibrium analysis and then dive into real life: results from a Swedish game show in which the game was played in a lottery format. Colin also compares the results from the game show with a study of the same game in a controlled lab environment. We finish the episode by deep-diving into level-k reasoning and Colin shares an example based on the role of published...
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The Power of Connection – A Game Theoretic View on Networks | with Matthew Jackson
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we explore the economic and strategic foundations of networks – from personal connections in the labor market to complex webs of international trade and conflict together with our guest Matthew Jackson. He unpacks how networks shape opportunities, inequalities, and global dynamics, and how game theory helps us understand the power and fragility of these structures. Along the way, we discuss surprising applications, including the role of tariffs in supply chains and how network insights can explain patterns of cooperation and rivalry. Matthew Jackson is the William...
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Robbing the many to pay the one – game theory and temptation | with Carlos Alós-Ferrer
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we are talking about corporate scandals, selfishness, and how game theory can help us understand when people give in to temptation. Carlos Alós-Ferrer explains how his “Big Robber” experiment shows that while people often act pro-socially in classical economic games, things change when individuals are given the chance to earn large sums of money at the expense of harming many others. We also discuss how insights from psychology and neuroscience enrich economics by highlighting the importance of process data such as response times. ...
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From First Offer to Final Minute: Lessons from Unstructured Bargaining | with Emin Karagözoğlu
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode, we dive into the world of experimental research on unstructured bargaining, exploring how real-world negotiations unfold when stripped of rigid rules and scripts. Our guest Emin explains how opening offers shape the conversation, the unspoken dance of reputation, and the ticking clock of deadlines – showing that even in seemingly messy contexts, strategic patterns emerge. Emin Karagözoğlu is Associate Professor of Economics at Bilkent University. His work spans behavioural and experimental economics, game theory, and neuroeconomics, with a strong...
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Impact or Innocence? Game Theoretic Clues to Why We Give | with Dennie van Dolder
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we explore what motivates people to give, using insights from a Dutch TV game show where a live audience decides how to split €10,000 among three contestants. We discuss how real-world data from natural experiments can help answer questions about fairness, impact, and generosity - and what this means for fundraisers and policymakers. Dennie van Dolder is Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) at the University of Essex. His research focuses on behavioural economics and empirical game theory, often drawing on data from game shows to study real-life decision-making.
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From Clicks to Chatbots: The Future of Online Advertising | with Dirk Bergemann
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we dive deep into the economics of digital markets with Dirk Bergemann. We discuss how search platforms like Google created entirely new marketplaces around user attention and private information, what makes digital markets so unique, and how auction design evolved to match the scale and complexity of internet advertising. Dirk also shares insights from his own research on how platforms collect and use user information and gives an economist’s perspective on how emerging technologies - like large language models - might reshape the future of search and advertising. ...
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Strange Bedfellows: The Game Theory Behind Counterintuitive Alliances | with David Pinsof
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode, we talk to David Pinsof about the surprising ways people form their beliefs and build alliances. Drawing on his survey with Cards Against Humanity, he shares how people often hold contradictory views and what this reveals about group coordination. We also dive into his game-theoretic model of coalition-building, explore how humor functions as a coordination tool, and discuss the deeper logic behind seemingly irrational behavior. David Pinsof is a behavioral scientist whose work combines evolutionary psychology and game theory, to understand...
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Man vs. model – game theoretic insights on AI in auctions | with Vitali Gretschko
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we are talking to Vitali Gretschko about how generative AI can be used to simulate strategic behaviour in auctions. We explore where AI tools can support auction design, where they fall short, and how practitioners should interpret simulation results. Vitali also explains why AI is best seen as a co-intelligence that needs expert guidance. Vitali Gretschko is Professor for sustainable Market Design at the University of Münster. His research focuses on auction theory, market design, and applying game theory to practical strategic problems.
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Punishment or Pettiness? The Game Theory Behind Spite | with Rory Smead
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode, our guest Rory Smead shares insights on spite and what game theory can teach us about this puzzling behaviour. He explains why people sometimes punish others even at a cost to themselves, and whether this can be understood through more than just fairness. Using the ultimatum game as a central example, he discusses how spite can influence decision-making and what this reveals about both human and animal behaviour. Rory Smead is Professor of Philosophy and the Ronald L. and Linda A. Rossetti Professor for the Humanities at Northeastern University. His research...
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When Bonuses Backfire: Rethinking Attendance Incentives | with Timo Vogelsang
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode we are talking to Timo Vogelsang about why incentives aimed at reducing absenteeism can sometimes have the opposite effect. Based on a Field Experiment in a German supermarket chain, he explains why offering bonuses for attendance backfired. We also explore how incentives can unintentionally shape beliefs and undermine motivation. Timo Vogelsang is Associate Professor of Managerial Accounting at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. His research focuses on behavioural economics and public policy, with a particular interest in how incentives shape motivation...
info_outlineIn this episode, we discuss overconfidence and its underlying psychological mechanisms. Our guest Collin Raymond shares his research (joint work with David Huffman and Julia Shvets) based on a field study he conducted with managers in the context of their Bonus payment. We discuss their findings on how managers make overconfident predictions about their individual future performance. In the study they can link the overconfidence to managers having an overly-positive memory of past performance. We finish the discussion by deep-diving into other facets of overconfidence.
Collin Raymond is Associate Professor of Strategy and Business Economics at the Johnson School of Management of Cornell University. His research interests span Behavioural Economics, Experimental Economics, and Microeconomic Theory. He focuses on how individuals make decisions under uncertainty and the cognitive biases that influence these decisions.
You can find the paper Collin describes in the interview here.