Can Game Theory help solve international conflicts? – Commitment and Negotiations | with Topi Miettinen
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
Release Date: 01/13/2025
Game Changer - the game theory podcast
In this episode, we speak with Rosemarie Nagel about the Beauty Contest, a classic game in economics. She introduces the setup, its origins, and the early research behind it. We then take a deeper look at the key insights from the Beauty Contest, in particular the concept of level-k reasoning and what it reveals about strategic thinking. Furthermore, Rosemarie shares how findings from these experimental studies have been linked to research on brain activity, offering a unique perspective on decision-making and the functioning of our brains. Finally, she offers a connection to real-world...
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Europe’s energy crisis has exposed deep structural flaws in how electricity markets work. But according to economist Natalia Fabra, much of the current debate is focused on the wrong problem. In this episode, we unpack why high prices are not simply a result of market design choices like uniform pricing – and why the real issue runs deeper. From the role of gas in price formation to the fundamental mismatch between short-term markets and long-term investment needs, this conversation reframes how we should think about the energy transition. Natalia Fabra is Professor of Economics at the...
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In this episode, we explore how game theory and economics can inform the use of AI. Our guest, Annie Liang, introduces the concept of AI clones, systems designed to imitate specific humans, and discusses their potential applications, for example in recruiting. We examine the trade-off between the efficiency gains the clones can provide and the costs that arise when AI cannot perfectly create such clones without error. The conversation then turns to creative ownership, focusing not only on content but also on the ownership of creative style as AI becomes increasingly capable of reproducing it....
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Can we trust lab experiments to predict real-world behaviour? In this episode, we explore the question of external validity together with Jan Stoop. From classic dictator games in the lab to misdelivered envelopes with real cash in private homes, we discuss whether people act differently when they are being observed - and what happens when established lab findings meet reality. We also talk about rich versus poor behaviour, financial stress, and why small “hassle costs” can create large inequalities in outcomes. Jan Stoop is Associate Professor at Tilburg University and Erasmus...
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What happens when an AI system faithfully follows a flawed goal? In this episode, we explore how even well-designed algorithms can produce dangerous outcomes — from amplifying hate speech to mismanaging infrastructure — simply by optimising a reward function which, like all reward functions, fails to encode all that matters. We discuss the hidden risks of reinforcement learning, why over-optimisation can backfire, and how game theory helps us rethink what it means for AI to act "rationally" in complex, real-world environments. Jobst Heitzig is a mathematician at the Potsdam...
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In this episode, we discuss how game theory sheds light on modern electoral competition. Our guest, Adam Meirowitz, introduces the classical model of candidate convergence and explains why real elections often depart from this prediction. We then explore the role of echo chambers and selective exposure, and why these surprisingly do not necessarily lead to greater polarisation. We also touch on how bounded rationality among voters can further impact these dynamics. Adam Meirowitz is the Damon Wells Professor of Political Science with a courtesy appointment in Economics at Yale...
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Talk is cheap – literally. But if words cost nothing, why do we ever trust them? In this episode, Yale Professor Navin Kartik breaks down the game theory of communication. We kick things off with the basics: what is the academic definition of “cheap talk”, and why does cheap talk sometimes work but other times break down? From there, we transition to Navin’s own research, which explores deeper facets of communication. We learn about lying costs and "inflated language”: why does a reference letter need to say “excellent” to just mean “competent”? Finally, we dive into topics...
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In this episode, we explore the foundations and evolution of decision theory. Our guest, Itzhak Gilboa, begins with a brief historical overview of how the field has developed over time. We naturally discuss maximising expected utility, Bayesian decision theory, and Savage’s representation theorem. Itzhak then delves into critiques of the Bayesian approach, especially concerning its interpretation of what constitutes a “rational decision maker.” He presents a range of alternative decision frameworks, including approaches that do not require individuals to specify a full subjective...
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In this episode, we explore how game theory and network effects intersect to inform optimal incentive structures in organizations. Pau Milán walks us through his recent research, co-authored with Nicolás Oviedo-Davila and Marc Claveria, which uses a novel game-theoretic model to show how the productivity of one employee can amplify the output of others in their network—and how firms can leverage this to design smarter compensation schemes. Drawing on real-world examples and his theoretical work, Pau offers practical insights for employers and economists alike. Pau...
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In this episode we explore the most classical topic from Game Theory – equilibrium analysis. Our guest Colin Camerer shares insights on the game LUPI (‘lowest unique positive integer’). We first discuss the actual mathematical equilibrium analysis and then dive into real life: results from a Swedish game show in which the game was played in a lottery format. Colin also compares the results from the game show with a study of the same game in a controlled lab environment. We finish the episode by deep-diving into level-k reasoning and Colin shares an example based on the role of published...
info_outlineIn this episode, Topi Miettinen shares his view and research on insights from Game Theory on international conflicts. We start discussing different examples of conflicts, e.g. complex negotiations within the EU and even war. Based on the examples Topi shares his research on the role of commitment to finding agreements. He also shares how his research extends from a bilateral negotiation (as in a war of two parties) situation to a multilateral situation (as in the EU).
Topi Miettinen is professor of economics at Hanken School of Economics and Helsinki Graduate School of Economics. His research focuses on behavioural and experimental economics, microeconomics, and game theory.