What Our Last War With China Can Teach Us About Our Next One
We Are Not Saved
People are worried about a lot of things at the moment, but one thing near the top of everyone’s list is a war between the US and China over the fate of Taiwan. What most people have forgotten is that the US already fought a war with China. It’s easy to overlook this previous conflict because we called it the Korean War (and initially it wasn’t even called a war). This is understandable given that it took place in Korea. As such, it’s forgivable to overlook the huge Chinese involvement. But for most of the war the Chinese were our primary opponents. (At its peak were...
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Reviews of (Mainstream) Religious Books Volume 2
We Are Not Saved
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Why Write a Book About:Against Superforecasting?
We Are Not Saved
Someone needs to point out the potential problems with superforecasting. For some reason it as fallen to me.
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The Terrors of Immortality
We Are Not Saved
The movement is called anti-aging, not anti-injury. How do people who believe they have a real shot at immortality interact with the phenomena of safetyism?
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Mid-length Non-fiction Book Reviews Volume 6
We Are Not Saved
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Horses in 1925 = Children in 2025
We Are Not Saved
Getting people to have more children may be as difficult as getting people to abandon their four-door sedan for a horse and buggy.
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Short Fiction Book Reviews- Volume 3
We Are Not Saved
Three translations of a classic, high brow literary fiction, a great book from a friend of and mine then a whole lot of pulp. Also something that might be the beginnings of a book by Neal Stephenson.
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The Case Against Superforecasting
We Are Not Saved
Audio for the keystone chapter (Chapter Zero) of the book I'm working on.
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What Does the Recent German Election Say About Immigration and Integration
We Are Not Saved
If integration is straightforward how is it that the former East Germany is so different ideologically from the former West Germany?
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Mid-length Non-fiction Book Reviews Volume 5
We Are Not Saved
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With the enormous increase in the power of AI (specifically LLMs) people are using them for all sorts of things, hoping to find areas where they’re better, or at least cheaper than humans. FiveThirtyNine (get it?) is one such attempt, and they claim that AI can do forecasting better than humans.
Scott Alexander, of Astral Codex Ten, reviewed the service and concluded that they still have a long way to go. I have no doubt that this is the case, but one can imagine that this will not always be the case. What then? My assertion would be that at the point when AI forecasting does “work” (should that ever happen) it will make the problems of superforecasting even worse.2
I- The problems of superforecasting
What are the problems of superforecasting?
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