Short Fiction Book Reviews- Volume 3
We Are Not Saved
Three translations of a classic, high brow literary fiction, a great book from a friend of and mine then a whole lot of pulp. Also something that might be the beginnings of a book by Neal Stephenson.
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The Case Against Superforecasting
We Are Not Saved
Audio for the keystone chapter (Chapter Zero) of the book I'm working on.
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What Does the Recent German Election Say About Immigration and Integration
We Are Not Saved
If integration is straightforward how is it that the former East Germany is so different ideologically from the former West Germany?
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Mid-length Non-fiction Book Reviews Volume 5
We Are Not Saved
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Meta Discussion and Book News
We Are Not Saved
Things are changing. Hopefully in good ways.
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Books I Want to Read vs. Books I Should Read (Sanderson's Latest)
We Are Not Saved
In which I decide that I am not going to read "Wind and Truth". And also that 63 hours on audio is just ridiculous.
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Reviews of Strange Religious Books Volume I
We Are Not Saved
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The Everest Fallacy
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A method for making better decisions should you ever find yourself in Kathmandu, or paying for SEO, or hoping to see the Supreme Court.
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Mid-length Non-fiction Book Reviews Volume 4
We Are Not Saved
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Ten Child Sex Abuse Rings in Search of a Narrative - 2025
We Are Not Saved
You have probably heard about Rotherham, and the child sex abuse rings that existed there (and ). As with so many things these days, this story entered the public discussion when Musk tweeted about it. For many people I’ve talked to, this was the first they’d heard of it. I actually spoke about . At the time I felt I was late to the game, but apparently I was six years ahead of most people. Given the story's re-emergence I thought it might be worth dusting off that old piece. I think it holds up pretty well, particularly the part about the woeful lack of reporting on the topic. I have...
info_outlineWith the enormous increase in the power of AI (specifically LLMs) people are using them for all sorts of things, hoping to find areas where they’re better, or at least cheaper than humans. FiveThirtyNine (get it?) is one such attempt, and they claim that AI can do forecasting better than humans.
Scott Alexander, of Astral Codex Ten, reviewed the service and concluded that they still have a long way to go. I have no doubt that this is the case, but one can imagine that this will not always be the case. What then? My assertion would be that at the point when AI forecasting does “work” (should that ever happen) it will make the problems of superforecasting even worse.2
I- The problems of superforecasting
What are the problems of superforecasting?
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