We Are Not Saved
Getting people to have more children may be as difficult as getting people to abandon their four-door sedan for a horse and buggy.
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Three translations of a classic, high brow literary fiction, a great book from a friend of and mine then a whole lot of pulp. Also something that might be the beginnings of a book by Neal Stephenson.
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Audio for the keystone chapter (Chapter Zero) of the book I'm working on.
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If integration is straightforward how is it that the former East Germany is so different ideologically from the former West Germany?
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We Are Not Saved
Things are changing. Hopefully in good ways.
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In which I decide that I am not going to read "Wind and Truth". And also that 63 hours on audio is just ridiculous.
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We Are Not Saved
A method for making better decisions should you ever find yourself in Kathmandu, or paying for SEO, or hoping to see the Supreme Court.
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With the enormous increase in the power of AI (specifically LLMs) people are using them for all sorts of things, hoping to find areas where they’re better, or at least cheaper than humans. FiveThirtyNine (get it?) is one such attempt, and they claim that AI can do forecasting better than humans.
Scott Alexander, of Astral Codex Ten, reviewed the service and concluded that they still have a long way to go. I have no doubt that this is the case, but one can imagine that this will not always be the case. What then? My assertion would be that at the point when AI forecasting does “work” (should that ever happen) it will make the problems of superforecasting even worse.2
I- The problems of superforecasting
What are the problems of superforecasting?
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