A Review of Nate Silver: The Election and His Book "On the Edge"
Release Date: 11/22/2024
What Our Last War With China Can Teach Us About Our Next One
We Are Not Saved
People are worried about a lot of things at the moment, but one thing near the top of everyone’s list is a war between the US and China over the fate of Taiwan. What most people have forgotten is that the US already fought a war with China. It’s easy to overlook this previous conflict because we called it the Korean War (and initially it wasn’t even called a war). This is understandable given that it took place in Korea. As such, it’s forgivable to overlook the huge Chinese involvement. But for most of the war the Chinese were our primary opponents. (At its peak were...
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Reviews of (Mainstream) Religious Books Volume 2
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Why Write a Book About:Against Superforecasting?
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Someone needs to point out the potential problems with superforecasting. For some reason it as fallen to me.
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The Terrors of Immortality
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The movement is called anti-aging, not anti-injury. How do people who believe they have a real shot at immortality interact with the phenomena of safetyism?
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Mid-length Non-fiction Book Reviews Volume 6
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Horses in 1925 = Children in 2025
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Getting people to have more children may be as difficult as getting people to abandon their four-door sedan for a horse and buggy.
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Short Fiction Book Reviews- Volume 3
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Three translations of a classic, high brow literary fiction, a great book from a friend of and mine then a whole lot of pulp. Also something that might be the beginnings of a book by Neal Stephenson.
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The Case Against Superforecasting
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Audio for the keystone chapter (Chapter Zero) of the book I'm working on.
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What Does the Recent German Election Say About Immigration and Integration
We Are Not Saved
If integration is straightforward how is it that the former East Germany is so different ideologically from the former West Germany?
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Mid-length Non-fiction Book Reviews Volume 5
We Are Not Saved
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He talks about the Village, and the River, but what we really need is a Redoubt.
On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
By: Nate Silver
Published: 2024
576 Pages
Briefly, what is this book about?
There are two different ways of approaching the world: the River, which thinks in terms of numbers, expected values, and quantification and the Village, which is the paternalistic expert class which manifests as the vast bureaucracy.
What's the author's angle?
I got the impression that Silver just wanted to write about things that interested him. Because of this, his thesis was kind of tacked on. That said, he is a fairly passionate advocate for things that interest him.
Who should read this book?
Silver is worried that people will skip the first half of the book which is about gambling, but in reality that was the best part, or at least the part I found to be novel. The second part is about Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), AI, and all the stuff you’ve already heard too much about if you spend much time online. With this in mind, I think there are three reasons to read this book:
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If you want a deep exploration of high-level poker playing.
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You have never heard of AI Risk or SBF.
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If you think my discussion of Silver’s model of the Village vs. the River is incomplete.
Specific thoughts: An mashup of the election and this book
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