Podcasts - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
A world leading independent energy research institute
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OIES Podcast – Developments in European Gas Hubs
08/18/2026
OIES Podcast – Developments in European Gas Hubs
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Patrick Heather about his latest paper on European Gas Hubs. Patrick talks us through his latest survey on trading activity on European Gas Hubs, highlighting the key elements that he analyses and the main indicators which determine the success of the hubs. We discuss not only the main hubs, with TTF again being by far the dominant marketplace in Europe, but also look at the role of some of the smaller hubs and how they have been developing over time. We also consider the importance of the NBP in the UK, given the country’s increasing role as a route for LNG imports to the continent. The importance of TTF in a European context has started to be mirrored on the global gas market, and Patrick discusses how it has become an increasing important benchmark for pricing across the world. We also look at how the change in gas flows across the continent following the decline in imports for Russia has affected trading levels and pricing trends, and also consider what future risks might exist for the European market, in particular if governments try to interfere with the market for security of supply reasons.
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OIES Podcast – Time-Varying Electricity Pricing is a Powerful Tool – But Without the Grid in the Loop, It Risks Going Off The Rails
08/10/2026
OIES Podcast – Time-Varying Electricity Pricing is a Powerful Tool – But Without the Grid in the Loop, It Risks Going Off The Rails
In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou engages in a discussion with Tim Schittekatte, a Senior Director at FTI Consulting and a part-time professor at the Florence School of Regulation, about his latest paper titled “Time-Varying Electricity Pricing is a Powerful Tool – But Without the Grid in the Loop, It Risks Going Off The Rails” which was part of the recent Oxford Energy Forum on Electricity Prices and the Energy Transition: Economic Efficiency, Social Equity, and Climate Alignment. The discussion centres on Tim’s research, which examines how dynamic retail rates can help balance renewable energy supply and demand while lowering consumer costs. However, without integrating grid capacity into these pricing models, a localised surge in usage, such as mass electric vehicle charging, could overwhelm the distribution network. To address this, we need to compare different pricing methods and their impact on economic efficiency and social equity. Ultimately, the dialogue emphasises that future market designs must align financial incentives with the physical realities of the power system to ensure long-term stability.
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OIES Podcast – Unpacking the Hormuz Crisis: The US in global energy markets
08/04/2026
OIES Podcast – Unpacking the Hormuz Crisis: The US in global energy markets
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced a rethink of a number of long-standing assumptions about energy chokepoints, how the US views its energy dominance as well as its willingness and ability to provide security guarantees. In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Sarah Ladislaw and Bob McNally about their contributions to the Oxford Energy Forum special issue, Unpacking the Hormuz Crisis: Implications for Energy Markets and the Energy Transition. Sarah and Bob explore what US “energy dominance” meant before the crisis and how the erosion of the US security guarantee over Hormuz is reshaping investment decisions, trade routes, and the centre of gravity in global energy flows. They discuss how Gulf producers, Europe, China, and India are recalibrating their view of Washington’s reliability, and what the crisis means domestically ahead of the US midterms, from SPR strategy to the outlook for the US upstream. Finally, they consider the tension between using US energy abundance as a stabilising tool versus a foreign policy weapon and the crisis’s implications for the energy transition.
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OIES Podcast – Gas market update: looming winter storage issues for Europe
07/28/2026
OIES Podcast – Gas market update: looming winter storage issues for Europe
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples, Bill Farren-Price and Mike Fulwood about the latest state of the gas market and the implications for storage in Europe. The conversation begins with an overview of the political situation in the Gulf and the conflict between the US and Iran and assesses the likelihood of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. We then move onto the supply and demand balance in the gas market, looking at how the loss of supply from Qatar and the UAE has been balanced over the past three months. The competition for LNG between Asian market and Europe is then analysed, with conclusions drawn about the current levels of gas in storage and the potential for a possible shortage in winter with consequent higher levels of price volatility in the event of any abnormal temperatures or other weather anomalies. Finally, we look to the longer term and the prospects for LNG supply in 2027 with or without a return of LNG exports from the Gulf.
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OIES Podcast – How the Hormuz crisis will shape LNG contract drafting
07/20/2026
OIES Podcast – How the Hormuz crisis will shape LNG contract drafting
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Agnieszka Ason about her latest research considering how the Hormuz crisis is likely to shape LNG SPA drafting practice in relation to contractual terms that proved critical during the crisis and are likely to be subject to further scrutiny in its aftermath. It starts with force majeure as the primary contractual response to disruption, before turning to allocation of available LNG, shipping risk, restoration and dispute risk management. Agnieszka discusses how disruption often serves as a natural catalyst for contractual change because it brings latent drafting issues into practical operation. Past practice shows that contract terms are tested most when supply chains come under pressure, assumptions about performance are exposed, and parties respond through revised terms and adjusted approaches to risk allocation. These issues are especially significant in the context of long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements, where the consequences of disruption may continue to affect the parties’ rights, obligations and commercial relationship long after the underlying event has ended.
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OIES Podcast – Implementing the EU Methane Emissions Regulation in Practice
07/14/2026
OIES Podcast – Implementing the EU Methane Emissions Regulation in Practice
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson speaks with Maria Olczak and Jonathan Stern about a recent OIES research paper examining how the EU Methane Emissions Regulation is being implemented across Member States. Moving beyond the legal text, they discuss how regulators are preparing for enforcement, why implementation has become increasingly politicised, and what the emerging regulatory framework means for global energy suppliers seeking access to the European market. Maria discusses her conversations with Competent Authorities and Responsible Ministries, highlighting that implementation is being driven as much by administrative readiness as by legal obligations. The podcast also looks at the contrasting views of regulators and industry players and highlights a tension between regulatory flexibility and legal certainty.
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OIES Podcast – China’s dominance and weaponisation of rare earth supply chains
07/06/2026
OIES Podcast – China’s dominance and weaponisation of rare earth supply chains
In this latest OIES podcast Michal Meidan talks to Henry Sanderson about his paper: “China and Rare Earth Supply Chains: Export Controls, Dual-Use Governance and UK Exposure”. Henry and Michal explore how China built unprecedented control over the rare earths value chain, how Beijing is now weaponising its dominance through targeted export controls on key elements and magnets, and what this means for defence, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. They then talk about the UK’s specific exposure and the intelligence advantages China gains from its export licensing regime. Finally, they discuss de-risking in the West, the policy steps needed—from strategic stockpiles to supporting alternative suppliers—in order to rebuild resilience in rare earth supply chains. The paper was published by RUSI, part of a joint research programme between RUSI and OIES.
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OIES Podcast – Rosatom and its growing global role
07/01/2026
OIES Podcast – Rosatom and its growing global role
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, Anders Hove talks to James Henderson about his latest paper on Rosatom and its role as a tool of Russian foreign policy. After a brief overview of Rosatom’s role as a major nuclear power company and its diversification into new businesses the discussion moves on to the importance of nuclear energy in a Russian domestic context, with its share of power generation targeted to rise to 25% over the next two decades. The conversation then moves to discuss the company’s export business and the numerous countries where it has built and is building nuclear power plants. The importance of the company’s offering across the nuclear value chain, including financial support, is analysed, and its emergence as a leader in SMR technology is seen as an important growth opportunity. This is especially the case in the Global South, where numerous MoUs have been signed in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia, many since the start of the war in Ukraine. The podcast concludes with an assessment of Rosatom’s role as a source of overseas influence for the Kremlin, especially in light of the decline in importance of Gazprom.
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OIES Podcast – After the US–Iran MOU: What Lies Ahead for Global Oil Markets?
06/26/2026
OIES Podcast – After the US–Iran MOU: What Lies Ahead for Global Oil Markets?
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh and Paul Horsnell discuss the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), its implications for oil markets, and the key uncertainties surrounding its implementation. They discuss several issues including: Did the oil market react largely as expected to the disruption, and what key lessons can we draw from how the market adjusted to such a large supply shock? To what extent did concerns about rapidly depleting oil stocks drive the US to pursue the MOU? Is the global stock problem now behind us, or could inventories continue to draw despite the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz? Can the ceasefire be sustained for instance if the negotiations on thorny issues such as the nuclear file or Iran imposing tolls on transit don’t make much progress within the next 60 days? In the likely case of protracted negotiations, is the MOU in its current format sufficient to support a return of oil flows through the Strait to pre-war levels, or has increased volatility in Hormuz transit become a permanent feature of the market? Under the current conditions, will Gulf producers restart their fields and how quickly can they restore their production to pre-war levels? Why are forecasts for the 2027 oil market diverging so widely, and which assumptions are driving the differences in outlook? What key indicators and developments to look out over the coming months that could materially alter the oil market outlook?
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OIES Podcast – LNG, EU storage and the importance of a ceasefire in the Gulf
06/16/2026
OIES Podcast – LNG, EU storage and the importance of a ceasefire in the Gulf
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about their paper on the outlook for LNG supply and its impact on European storage in the light of a potential ceasefire in the Gulf. The podcast analyses the impact of the lass of LNG supply from Qatar and the UAE and the compensating measures that have been seen in the global gas market. These have included alternative LNG production, increases in piped gas supply to Europe and adjustments in demand from Asian and European customers. However, the overarching conclusion is that the loss of supply availability is likely to lead to lower gas in European storage ahead of winter and a consequent increase in gas prices and price volatility. The announcement of a likely ceasefire in the hostilities in the Gulf is then discussed in terms of the timing of a return of LNG supply and the impact on EU storage, with an overall conclusion that even in a best case scenario it will take at least two months to restore normality, which may be too late to significantly impact storage levels ahead of the winter period.
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OIES Podcast – Beyond crude: the profound effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on oil products markets
06/09/2026
OIES Podcast – Beyond crude: the profound effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on oil products markets
In this latest OIES podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Neil Fleming, Global Head of Editorial at Argus, and Aldric Chew, Senior Editor, Asia-Pacific Oil Products at Argus Media, about how the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) has been impacting refining runs and refined products markets based on their contribution to the latest issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, “Beyond crude: the profound effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on oil products markets”. They address few questions including: Why have refined products markets been more severely affected by the Hormuz disruption than crude oil markets? What have been the key drivers of stress in products markets, and which fuels have been most impacted? How have government interventions influenced market outcomes, and have they been effective in protecting consumers? How have Asian refiners adapted to the loss of Gulf crude supplies, and what challenges have they faced in replacing those barrels? What have been the broader consequences of Asian refinery run cuts for regional and global products markets? Has increased reliance on imported products been a successful response for Asian economies, and how sustainable is this strategy over time? How has the Hormuz crisis changed the way policymakers and industry participants think about energy security? Why is there a growing case for developing independent Middle East Gulf refined products benchmarks? If disruptions persist for several more months, what mechanisms will drive market adjustment, and which regions are likely to bear the greatest burden?
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OIES Podcast – Application of Marginal Cost Pricing to Accelerate Electrification
06/01/2026
OIES Podcast – Application of Marginal Cost Pricing to Accelerate Electrification
In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou engages in a discussion with Ahmad Faruqui, an economist and one of the lead architects of California’s experiment with dynamic pricing about his latest paper titled “Some Controversies in the Application of Marginal Cost Pricing to Accelerate Electrification: A Case Study in Rate-Making in California” which was part of the recent Oxford Energy Forum on Electricity Prices and the Energy Transition: Economic Efficiency, Social Equity, and Climate Alignment. We start the discussion with the advancements in California’s energy transition and the challenges it faces, including high electricity prices and the effects on electrification. We dive into retail tariffs, distinguish between average and marginal costs, and examine the cross-subsidies between consumers in both cases. We analyse how AI can facilitate dynamic pricing and enable demand-side flexibility. We conclude the discussion with the necessary political, regulatory, and technological steps to implement marginal cost pricing on a wide scale.
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OIES Podcast – The impact of changing gas flows in Europe
05/29/2026
OIES Podcast – The impact of changing gas flows in Europe
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Patrick Heather about the impact that the changing flows of gas in Europe are having on hub prices across the region. The discussion is based on a recent OIES Insight and first considers how the reduction of Russian gas flows to Europe and the corresponding increase in imported LNG has impacted the direction of gas flows across the continent. We consider the impact on various TSOs, who have seen sharp changes in the throughput of their systems, and conclude that the difference is most market in Central and Eastern Europe, which have now effectively become destination markets rather than transit countries. We then consider the price impact of this, reviewing the changes in transit charges that have been introduced as a result of the variation in volumes. We discuss the new “ladder of prices” that is emerging in different countries as the cost of delivering LNG to the centre of Europe is now effectively being charged on a TTF-plus basis.
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OIES Podcast – 80 Days into the Hormuz Disruption: What Comes Next for Oil Markets?
05/19/2026
OIES Podcast – 80 Days into the Hormuz Disruption: What Comes Next for Oil Markets?
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Paul Horsnell and Harry Tchilinguirian about how the prolonged disruption of crude oil and refined products flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) has been shaping the physical and financial layers of oil markets, benchmarks, and policy responses to the supply shock. They address few questions including: How significant is the current oil market shock in historical perspective, and what long-term impacts could it have on the market? Why have oil prices not risen more sharply despite the scale of the recent disruptions? What does the relationship between Dated Brent, Brent futures, and physical market premiums reveal about current market conditions? What factors are driving the sharp decline in Brent futures open interest, and what does this indicate about the trading environment? How are shifting refinery demand patterns and changing crude trade flows, particularly toward US crude, reshaping global oil markets and relationships between oil benchmarks? Will the back end of the oil price curve move higher heading into 2027, and what factors could drive that shift? What are the main factors shaping the oil market outlook for 2027, and where do views and expectations diverge the most?
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OIES Podcast – Gas Quarterly and Market Update
05/11/2026
OIES Podcast – Gas Quarterly and Market Update
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honore about the latest Gas Quarterly and the market data hat it provides. Using data to the end of April, we discuss the shifts in prices that we have seen since the start of the war in Iran and consider what the impact might be if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer. We look in details at flows of gas to Europe and examine the impact of higher prices on demand in the industrial, power generation and residential & commercial sectors. We then discuss the reasons why gas prices have not risen even higher in the short term, and look at the new LNG flows that are emerging to at least partially offset the loss of volumes from the Gulf. Finally, we consider the supply and demand balance for global gas into 2027 and debate whether the refill of storage in Europe could become a major issue over the next few months.
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OIES Podcast – The Evolution of Nuclear Energy
05/08/2026
OIES Podcast – The Evolution of Nuclear Energy
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Adnan Shihab-Eldin and Holger Rogner about their latest paper on the future of nuclear energy, that was co-authored with Robert Budnitz and Charles McCombie. The discussion covers the global outlook for nuclear energy, which has shifted significantly in the last few years from predominantly unfavourable or dismissive views to strongly favourable and optimistic perspectives, in countries all around the world, both developed and developing. This shift is reflected in the growing support for the declaration to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, first endorsed by 21 countries at COP28, and since expanded to include 38 countries. The podcast then looks at a number of important challenges that could delay or hinder nuclear energy’s contribution to overall energy and security goals as well as global climate goals. These include economic competitiveness, supply-chain readiness, fuel cycle and waste management issues, regulatory and institutional capacity, and the need to maintain strong safety, security, and safeguards frameworks. These challenges are especially important as new technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and other advanced reactors are deployed. The podcast then examines the major economic, institutional, and technical factors that will shape the future deployment of nuclear power. It reviews the current status of nuclear technologies and programmes, identifies key issues that may influence the pace and scale of nuclear expansion, and highlights areas where further analysis could support policy and investment decisions.
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OIES Podcast – Global Gas Battling the Next Crisis
05/08/2026
OIES Podcast – Global Gas Battling the Next Crisis
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about the latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum entitled “Global Gas: Battling the Next Crisis.” The discussion starts with an overview of the geopolitical impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and in particular how it has changed perceptions of gas in major importing regions such as Europe and Asia. We assess whether this second major gas crisis in four years has undermined perceptions of gas as a source of energy security and caused countries to reconsider the significant investments in infrastructure that are needed to facilitate gas imports and consumption. We then consider whether China has established itself as the major balancing market in the global gas industry and whether this will give it significant bargaining power in future. On the supply side, we discuss whether the imminent LNG wave and offset supplies lost from the Gulf and whether this will be enough to appease major buyers, or whether prices will need to fall significantly after the Iran was is over if major demand destruction is to be avoided. In particular we consider whether the growth in supplies of US LNG could face major political and economic challenges.
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OIES Podcast – Ex-situ Enhanced Mineralisation
05/08/2026
OIES Podcast – Ex-situ Enhanced Mineralisation
In this OIES podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Naser Odeh about ex-situ enhanced mineralisation, a carbon removal approach that accelerates a natural process to lock CO₂ into solid rock. By reacting captured CO₂ with industrial waste materials like steel slag and cement dust, the method offers a rare combination of permanent carbon storage and circular economy benefits, turning waste streams into climate solutions. While this would not replace emissions reductions, it plays a crucial role in tackling the “last mile” of net-zero by removing residual emissions that are otherwise hard to eliminate. The discussion highlights that the technology is scientifically robust but still emerging, with energy use, costs, and scalability as the main barriers. Its real potential depends less on chemistry and more on smart policy, industrial integration, and market demand – especially for low-carbon construction materials.
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OIES Podcast – China after the Iran crisis: change or continuity?
04/22/2026
OIES Podcast – China after the Iran crisis: change or continuity?
Nearly two months after the start of the Iran War, China’s resilience in the face of the resulting global energy crisis stands in stark contrast to the situation in Europe and North America. In today’s podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove dig into what is actually happening in China in response to the crisis—both in energy markets and in policy. To what extent is China “doubling down” on its clean energy strategy, as some have suggested? What are leaders saying (or signalling) about China’s response—domestically and internationally? How much do higher LNG prices really affect China’s appetite for gas power or for shifting heating from coal to gas? Are there signs that China’s domestic electric vehicle (EV) adoption could accelerate, following a year focused on tackling involution and boosting exports? Given the paucity of high-level statements, to what extent can China’s response to past crises inform expectations this time? Today’s podcast explores these questions and more, looking at both near-term and medium-term prospects for policy and market developments, as energy security rises ever higher on the domestic agenda.
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OIES Podcast – Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader
04/16/2026
OIES Podcast – Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Ilia Bouchouev about his recent OIES paper titled: The Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader. They discuss the responses of various financial players to the largest physical shock in the history of the oil market and how financial markets and oil derivatives are interacting with the physical markets and influencing oil price movements. Key discussion questions include: Are financial players amplifying or dampening oil price movements? Can financial flows explain the divergence between prices in physical and futures markets? Has the recent surge in call option activity contributed to increased price volatility? What role have hedge funds and CTAs played—have they become more active since the start of the war, or has high volatility reduced their activity? How did refinery hedging affect market imbalances in products’ paper market, and did this contribute to the elevated refining margins and products prices?
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OIES Podcast – Unlocking the Economics of CCS
04/07/2026
OIES Podcast – Unlocking the Economics of CCS
In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to David Phillips about the costs of deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) at scale. CCS is entering a new development phase driven by the need to decarbonize heavy industries such as cement, waste-to-energy, and pulp and paper rather than focusing mainly on coal power as in earlier cycles. Global capture capacity is currently about 64 million tons per year, but announced projects could raise this to over 300 million tons by 2030, although most are still not financed or under construction. The biggest barrier to deployment is project financing, not a lack of capital, but uncertainty and risk across the CCS value chain which makes investment decisions difficult. The podcast evaluates how costs can decline significantly through modular plant design, learning-by-doing, and economies of scale, especially in transport and storage infrastructure where larger networks reduce per-ton costs. Technological improvements could further lower operating costs and energy use over time. Engineered carbon removals (CDR) – such as capturing biogenic CO₂ and selling removal credits – may create new revenue streams that improve CCS economics and attract corporate buyers. Overall, the industry’s success over the next decade will depend on deploying real projects to build experience, reduce costs, and prove reliability, which could eventually enable CCS to scale as a core tool for industrial decarbonization.
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OIES Podcast – The Current State of the Global Gas Market
04/02/2026
OIES Podcast – The Current State of the Global Gas Market
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market given the continuing war in Iran. They discuss the impact of the cessation of LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE, including a review of the main demand centres that have been affected and the ongoing volatility of prices. They then review three scenarios for the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing the potential for LNG flows in the short-, medium- and longer term and the consequent supply and price impacts. Finally, the podcast considers the risks to the refill of storage in Europe over the summer, the potential new shape of the LNG wave that could replace exports from the Gulf and the risk that the current crisis could fundamentally change the perceptions of the future of gas in importing regions.
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OIES Podcast – Demand-side flexibility: state of play and future trends
03/25/2026
OIES Podcast – Demand-side flexibility: state of play and future trends
In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow David Robinson about why demand-side flexibility has shifted from a niche concept to a structural pillar of deeply decarbonised systems. We explore how smart electric-vehicle charging, heat pumps, household batteries, and digital platforms are reshaping the balance between supply and demand; why aggregation is essential for small assets to compete with conventional generation; and how electricity markets may evolve as flexibility increasingly sets the margin. The discussion highlights the critical distinction between implicit price responses and explicit market participation, noting that automation is key to consumer engagement. The conversation also examines grid congestion, AI-driven optimisation, and regulatory debates on independent aggregators and compensation models worldwide. Ultimately, we argue that integrating flexible demand is essential for decarbonisation and reducing long-term infrastructure costs.
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OIES Podcast – The Impact of the War in Iran on the Global Gas Market
03/19/2026
OIES Podcast – The Impact of the War in Iran on the Global Gas Market
In the latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks with Bill Farren-Price and Mike Fulwood about the impact of the war in Iran on the global gas market. After a review of the political situation in the Gulf and the state of the gas infrastructure, we discuss the impact on physical supply and prices, looking at where shortages are already emerging and how key consumers are responding. We then analyse the potential for alternative sources of supply, both via LNG and pipeline, and debate whether the EU might condone a return of imports from Russia. We also look at the possible impact of EU regulation on market dynamics, especially if strict storage targets are re-imposed. For the longer term, we then conclude by discussing whether the crisis might change the perception of gas in major importing countries and question whether countries in Asia might become less enthusiastic about switching away from indigenous coal.
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OIES Podcast – China, Iran and the Five-Year Plan
03/12/2026
OIES Podcast – China, Iran and the Five-Year Plan
The US and Israeli attack on Iran coincided with what was already an eventful week in China, especially with the conclusion of the Two-Sessions of the National People’s Congress and the publication of the draft 15th Five-Year Plan (15FYP) Outline. In today’s podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove dig into the implications of the new energy crisis for China, as well as what China’s electrification of transport really means for energy security. China is the world’s largest oil importing country, and it gets a large share of its oil from the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has been a potential energy choke-point for China for decades. But this doesn’t make China inherently the most vulnerable country to oil disruptions – though gasoline prices have spiked and gas lines have been reported. New Energy Vehicle (NEV) adoption is an ongoing trend, but the picture is complicated here as well. Even though NEVs are over 50% of the new vehicle market, they constitute only 12% of the vehicle stock. In fact, China’s freight sector is seeing a faster transition to electrification. China is far less reliant on cars for personal transportation than other large economies, which also reduces its vulnerability. Chinese policy makers are clearly focused on economics and energy security over climate and clean energy – that has been clear for several years. The FYP makes some nods towards electrification of trucking and transportation, but not breaking new ground. The document supports an all-of-the-above strategy, as well as providing something for everyone – especially coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemicals, which have implications for local development as well as energy security. Today’s podcast builds on two OIES papers, ‘Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz: Implications for China’s energy markets and policies’, published earlier this week, and a paper on China’s NEV developments to be released shortly.
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OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets
03/11/2026
OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Paul Horsnell and Ahmed Mehdi about the US-Israel War with Iran and its implications for oil markets. They discuss a number of topics: Are markets still in the phase of ‘logistical discovery’, identifying weak points in the global oil supply chain, and what disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz reveal about system resilience? If shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted, how the oil market adjusts across production, transportation, consumption, and inventories/buffers? What changes in crude differentials, refining margins, product prices, freight rates, and trading structures reveal about current transformations in oil markets and are these transformations structural? How Asian refineries dependent on Gulf crude are adapting to the shock? Are supply shortages accelerating the reintegration of Russian and Venezuelan crude into global markets and what this means for trade flows and pricing? How are pricing mechanisms and the price discovery process being affected?
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OIES Podcast – US-Israeli War with Iran: Unpacking the oil and gas market implications
03/05/2026
OIES Podcast – US-Israeli War with Iran: Unpacking the oil and gas market implications
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Michal Meidan, Bill Farren Price and Paul Horsnell about the US-Israel War with Iran and its implications for oil and gas markets. They discuss a number of topics: How is the war reshaping global energy markets and energy security? What are the main warring parties seeking to achieve? What have been the implications for oil markets? What are the key risks to watch out for? How will current events change the ‘glut’ narrative? Why have European gas prices surged even more dramatically than oil and what does this reveal about LNG and gas market vulnerability? Will President Donald Trump’s proposal to insure and escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz meaningfully reduce market fears, or are traders still pricing in further escalation risks? How will China? Will it do strategic crude stock releases? How will crude and LNG sourcing shift? What is the outlook for potential diplomatic intervention, if the conflict persists or escalates further?
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OIES Podcast – Trends Shaping Oil Markets
03/02/2026
OIES Podcast – Trends Shaping Oil Markets
In this latest episode of the OIES podcast series, Bassam Fattouh (Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies) discusses with Ilia Bouchouev (managing partner at Pentathlon Investments, Senior Research Fellow at OIES, and adjunct Professor at New York University) recent trends in options trading, algorithmic trading and hedge fund strategies that are shaping oil markets. Based on recent research from the OIES Energy Quantamentals series, they focus on key themes including: The role of fundamentals versus financial flows in oil price formation Volatility risk premiums and the shrinking supply of insurance and the implications for oil markets Whether the elevated option premiums represent excess profits for sellers or fair compensation for bearing tail risks, and whether option sellers amplify or dampen sharp price movements during market stress Competing algorithmic strategies and how these have been evolving in a price range bound environment How spikes in call option open interest during geopolitical tensions may influence algorithmic positioning, and how options markets, volatility premiums, and systematic strategies interact to drive price moves Comparison of momentum-based strategies that reinforce large fund positioning versus contrarian strategies that bet on mean reversion, and analysis of why contrarian strategies have recently outperformed The Impact of AI on oil trading and market volatility Key indicators and positioning trends to monitor in 2026 for understanding the influence of algorithmic strategies and hedge fund flows on oil prices
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OIES Podcast – Gas Market Outlook
02/23/2026
OIES Podcast – Gas Market Outlook
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the impact of the recent cold weather on gas markets and the outlook for the rest of 2026. We start with a review of prices over the past couple of months and a look at the key drivers behind the price spike in January. In considering how the surge in European demand was met we look at the key sources of supply, with a focus on the LNG market. This then leads to a discussion about the new sources of LNG supply that are set to become available over the next twelve months and what this might mean for the European gas market as it seeks to refill storage that has been heavily depleted over the past 3-4 months. We consider what the impact of Asian demand could be on the availability of supply to Europe, consider the main market risks over the next 12 months and conclude with some thoughts on the price outlook through the remainder of 2026 and into the first quarter of 2027.
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OIES Podcast – China 2026 Outlook: Staying the course in turbulent times
02/19/2026
OIES Podcast – China 2026 Outlook: Staying the course in turbulent times
China successfully navigated a difficult year in 2025, just hitting its official growth target despite trade wars and the country’s ongoing real estate slowdown. The country’s leadership is deep in the process of developing its next five-year plan, which is expected to focus on high technology and industrial upgrading, continuing recent policy themes rather than introducing major structural reforms. Meanwhile, policy makers are seeking to combat involution while boosting exports to ensure that the ‘New Three’ industries (solar, batteries, electric vehicles) remain a growth driver. All while maintaining energy security in the face of rising renewables and the risks of external conflicts. In this podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove discuss the latest developments in China’s energy picture, including markets, policy and geopolitics. Key topics include the impact of Venezuela on China’s oil sector, the need for power market reforms to combat overcapacity in coal, the implications of rising renewables and coal on gas-fired power, and the rise of EV heavy trucks and whether they pose a threat for future LNG use in transport. Most importantly, they address the key things to watch in the coming 15th Five-Year Plan.
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