Podcasts - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
A world leading independent energy research institute
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OIES Podcast – 80 Days into the Hormuz Disruption: What Comes Next for Oil Markets?
05/19/2026
OIES Podcast – 80 Days into the Hormuz Disruption: What Comes Next for Oil Markets?
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Paul Horsnell and Harry Tchilinguirian about how the prolonged disruption of crude oil and refined products flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) has been shaping the physical and financial layers of oil markets, benchmarks, and policy responses to the supply shock. They address few questions including: How significant is the current oil market shock in historical perspective, and what long-term impacts could it have on the market? Why have oil prices not risen more sharply despite the scale of the recent disruptions? What does the relationship between Dated Brent, Brent futures, and physical market premiums reveal about current market conditions? What factors are driving the sharp decline in Brent futures open interest, and what does this indicate about the trading environment? How are shifting refinery demand patterns and changing crude trade flows, particularly toward US crude, reshaping global oil markets and relationships between oil benchmarks? Will the back end of the oil price curve move higher heading into 2027, and what factors could drive that shift? What are the main factors shaping the oil market outlook for 2027, and where do views and expectations diverge the most?
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OIES Podcast – Gas Quarterly and Market Update
05/11/2026
OIES Podcast – Gas Quarterly and Market Update
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honore about the latest Gas Quarterly and the market data hat it provides. Using data to the end of April, we discuss the shifts in prices that we have seen since the start of the war in Iran and consider what the impact might be if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed much longer. We look in details at flows of gas to Europe and examine the impact of higher prices on demand in the industrial, power generation and residential & commercial sectors. We then discuss the reasons why gas prices have not risen even higher in the short term, and look at the new LNG flows that are emerging to at least partially offset the loss of volumes from the Gulf. Finally, we consider the supply and demand balance for global gas into 2027 and debate whether the refill of storage in Europe could become a major issue over the next few months.
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OIES Podcast – The Evolution of Nuclear Energy
05/08/2026
OIES Podcast – The Evolution of Nuclear Energy
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Adnan Shihab-Eldin and Holger Rogner about their latest paper on the future of nuclear energy, that was co-authored with Robert Budnitz and Charles McCombie. The discussion covers the global outlook for nuclear energy, which has shifted significantly in the last few years from predominantly unfavourable or dismissive views to strongly favourable and optimistic perspectives, in countries all around the world, both developed and developing. This shift is reflected in the growing support for the declaration to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, first endorsed by 21 countries at COP28, and since expanded to include 38 countries. The podcast then looks at a number of important challenges that could delay or hinder nuclear energy’s contribution to overall energy and security goals as well as global climate goals. These include economic competitiveness, supply-chain readiness, fuel cycle and waste management issues, regulatory and institutional capacity, and the need to maintain strong safety, security, and safeguards frameworks. These challenges are especially important as new technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and other advanced reactors are deployed. The podcast then examines the major economic, institutional, and technical factors that will shape the future deployment of nuclear power. It reviews the current status of nuclear technologies and programmes, identifies key issues that may influence the pace and scale of nuclear expansion, and highlights areas where further analysis could support policy and investment decisions.
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OIES Podcast – Global Gas Battling the Next Crisis
05/08/2026
OIES Podcast – Global Gas Battling the Next Crisis
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about the latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum entitled “Global Gas: Battling the Next Crisis.” The discussion starts with an overview of the geopolitical impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and in particular how it has changed perceptions of gas in major importing regions such as Europe and Asia. We assess whether this second major gas crisis in four years has undermined perceptions of gas as a source of energy security and caused countries to reconsider the significant investments in infrastructure that are needed to facilitate gas imports and consumption. We then consider whether China has established itself as the major balancing market in the global gas industry and whether this will give it significant bargaining power in future. On the supply side, we discuss whether the imminent LNG wave and offset supplies lost from the Gulf and whether this will be enough to appease major buyers, or whether prices will need to fall significantly after the Iran was is over if major demand destruction is to be avoided. In particular we consider whether the growth in supplies of US LNG could face major political and economic challenges.
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OIES Podcast – Ex-situ Enhanced Mineralisation
05/08/2026
OIES Podcast – Ex-situ Enhanced Mineralisation
In this OIES podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Naser Odeh about ex-situ enhanced mineralisation, a carbon removal approach that accelerates a natural process to lock CO₂ into solid rock. By reacting captured CO₂ with industrial waste materials like steel slag and cement dust, the method offers a rare combination of permanent carbon storage and circular economy benefits, turning waste streams into climate solutions. While this would not replace emissions reductions, it plays a crucial role in tackling the “last mile” of net-zero by removing residual emissions that are otherwise hard to eliminate. The discussion highlights that the technology is scientifically robust but still emerging, with energy use, costs, and scalability as the main barriers. Its real potential depends less on chemistry and more on smart policy, industrial integration, and market demand – especially for low-carbon construction materials.
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OIES Podcast – China after the Iran crisis: change or continuity?
04/22/2026
OIES Podcast – China after the Iran crisis: change or continuity?
Nearly two months after the start of the Iran War, China’s resilience in the face of the resulting global energy crisis stands in stark contrast to the situation in Europe and North America. In today’s podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove dig into what is actually happening in China in response to the crisis—both in energy markets and in policy. To what extent is China “doubling down” on its clean energy strategy, as some have suggested? What are leaders saying (or signalling) about China’s response—domestically and internationally? How much do higher LNG prices really affect China’s appetite for gas power or for shifting heating from coal to gas? Are there signs that China’s domestic electric vehicle (EV) adoption could accelerate, following a year focused on tackling involution and boosting exports? Given the paucity of high-level statements, to what extent can China’s response to past crises inform expectations this time? Today’s podcast explores these questions and more, looking at both near-term and medium-term prospects for policy and market developments, as energy security rises ever higher on the domestic agenda.
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OIES Podcast – Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader
04/16/2026
OIES Podcast – Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Ilia Bouchouev about his recent OIES paper titled: The Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader. They discuss the responses of various financial players to the largest physical shock in the history of the oil market and how financial markets and oil derivatives are interacting with the physical markets and influencing oil price movements. Key discussion questions include: Are financial players amplifying or dampening oil price movements? Can financial flows explain the divergence between prices in physical and futures markets? Has the recent surge in call option activity contributed to increased price volatility? What role have hedge funds and CTAs played—have they become more active since the start of the war, or has high volatility reduced their activity? How did refinery hedging affect market imbalances in products’ paper market, and did this contribute to the elevated refining margins and products prices?
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OIES Podcast – Unlocking the Economics of CCS
04/07/2026
OIES Podcast – Unlocking the Economics of CCS
In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to David Phillips about the costs of deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) at scale. CCS is entering a new development phase driven by the need to decarbonize heavy industries such as cement, waste-to-energy, and pulp and paper rather than focusing mainly on coal power as in earlier cycles. Global capture capacity is currently about 64 million tons per year, but announced projects could raise this to over 300 million tons by 2030, although most are still not financed or under construction. The biggest barrier to deployment is project financing, not a lack of capital, but uncertainty and risk across the CCS value chain which makes investment decisions difficult. The podcast evaluates how costs can decline significantly through modular plant design, learning-by-doing, and economies of scale, especially in transport and storage infrastructure where larger networks reduce per-ton costs. Technological improvements could further lower operating costs and energy use over time. Engineered carbon removals (CDR) – such as capturing biogenic CO₂ and selling removal credits – may create new revenue streams that improve CCS economics and attract corporate buyers. Overall, the industry’s success over the next decade will depend on deploying real projects to build experience, reduce costs, and prove reliability, which could eventually enable CCS to scale as a core tool for industrial decarbonization.
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OIES Podcast – The Current State of the Global Gas Market
04/02/2026
OIES Podcast – The Current State of the Global Gas Market
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market given the continuing war in Iran. They discuss the impact of the cessation of LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE, including a review of the main demand centres that have been affected and the ongoing volatility of prices. They then review three scenarios for the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing the potential for LNG flows in the short-, medium- and longer term and the consequent supply and price impacts. Finally, the podcast considers the risks to the refill of storage in Europe over the summer, the potential new shape of the LNG wave that could replace exports from the Gulf and the risk that the current crisis could fundamentally change the perceptions of the future of gas in importing regions.
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OIES Podcast – Demand-side flexibility: state of play and future trends
03/25/2026
OIES Podcast – Demand-side flexibility: state of play and future trends
In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow David Robinson about why demand-side flexibility has shifted from a niche concept to a structural pillar of deeply decarbonised systems. We explore how smart electric-vehicle charging, heat pumps, household batteries, and digital platforms are reshaping the balance between supply and demand; why aggregation is essential for small assets to compete with conventional generation; and how electricity markets may evolve as flexibility increasingly sets the margin. The discussion highlights the critical distinction between implicit price responses and explicit market participation, noting that automation is key to consumer engagement. The conversation also examines grid congestion, AI-driven optimisation, and regulatory debates on independent aggregators and compensation models worldwide. Ultimately, we argue that integrating flexible demand is essential for decarbonisation and reducing long-term infrastructure costs.
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OIES Podcast – The Impact of the War in Iran on the Global Gas Market
03/19/2026
OIES Podcast – The Impact of the War in Iran on the Global Gas Market
In the latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks with Bill Farren-Price and Mike Fulwood about the impact of the war in Iran on the global gas market. After a review of the political situation in the Gulf and the state of the gas infrastructure, we discuss the impact on physical supply and prices, looking at where shortages are already emerging and how key consumers are responding. We then analyse the potential for alternative sources of supply, both via LNG and pipeline, and debate whether the EU might condone a return of imports from Russia. We also look at the possible impact of EU regulation on market dynamics, especially if strict storage targets are re-imposed. For the longer term, we then conclude by discussing whether the crisis might change the perception of gas in major importing countries and question whether countries in Asia might become less enthusiastic about switching away from indigenous coal.
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OIES Podcast – China, Iran and the Five-Year Plan
03/12/2026
OIES Podcast – China, Iran and the Five-Year Plan
The US and Israeli attack on Iran coincided with what was already an eventful week in China, especially with the conclusion of the Two-Sessions of the National People’s Congress and the publication of the draft 15th Five-Year Plan (15FYP) Outline. In today’s podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove dig into the implications of the new energy crisis for China, as well as what China’s electrification of transport really means for energy security. China is the world’s largest oil importing country, and it gets a large share of its oil from the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has been a potential energy choke-point for China for decades. But this doesn’t make China inherently the most vulnerable country to oil disruptions – though gasoline prices have spiked and gas lines have been reported. New Energy Vehicle (NEV) adoption is an ongoing trend, but the picture is complicated here as well. Even though NEVs are over 50% of the new vehicle market, they constitute only 12% of the vehicle stock. In fact, China’s freight sector is seeing a faster transition to electrification. China is far less reliant on cars for personal transportation than other large economies, which also reduces its vulnerability. Chinese policy makers are clearly focused on economics and energy security over climate and clean energy – that has been clear for several years. The FYP makes some nods towards electrification of trucking and transportation, but not breaking new ground. The document supports an all-of-the-above strategy, as well as providing something for everyone – especially coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemicals, which have implications for local development as well as energy security. Today’s podcast builds on two OIES papers, ‘Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz: Implications for China’s energy markets and policies’, published earlier this week, and a paper on China’s NEV developments to be released shortly.
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OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets
03/11/2026
OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Paul Horsnell and Ahmed Mehdi about the US-Israel War with Iran and its implications for oil markets. They discuss a number of topics: Are markets still in the phase of ‘logistical discovery’, identifying weak points in the global oil supply chain, and what disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz reveal about system resilience? If shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted, how the oil market adjusts across production, transportation, consumption, and inventories/buffers? What changes in crude differentials, refining margins, product prices, freight rates, and trading structures reveal about current transformations in oil markets and are these transformations structural? How Asian refineries dependent on Gulf crude are adapting to the shock? Are supply shortages accelerating the reintegration of Russian and Venezuelan crude into global markets and what this means for trade flows and pricing? How are pricing mechanisms and the price discovery process being affected?
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OIES Podcast – US-Israeli War with Iran: Unpacking the oil and gas market implications
03/05/2026
OIES Podcast – US-Israeli War with Iran: Unpacking the oil and gas market implications
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh talks to Michal Meidan, Bill Farren Price and Paul Horsnell about the US-Israel War with Iran and its implications for oil and gas markets. They discuss a number of topics: How is the war reshaping global energy markets and energy security? What are the main warring parties seeking to achieve? What have been the implications for oil markets? What are the key risks to watch out for? How will current events change the ‘glut’ narrative? Why have European gas prices surged even more dramatically than oil and what does this reveal about LNG and gas market vulnerability? Will President Donald Trump’s proposal to insure and escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz meaningfully reduce market fears, or are traders still pricing in further escalation risks? How will China? Will it do strategic crude stock releases? How will crude and LNG sourcing shift? What is the outlook for potential diplomatic intervention, if the conflict persists or escalates further?
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OIES Podcast – Trends Shaping Oil Markets
03/02/2026
OIES Podcast – Trends Shaping Oil Markets
In this latest episode of the OIES podcast series, Bassam Fattouh (Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies) discusses with Ilia Bouchouev (managing partner at Pentathlon Investments, Senior Research Fellow at OIES, and adjunct Professor at New York University) recent trends in options trading, algorithmic trading and hedge fund strategies that are shaping oil markets. Based on recent research from the OIES Energy Quantamentals series, they focus on key themes including: The role of fundamentals versus financial flows in oil price formation Volatility risk premiums and the shrinking supply of insurance and the implications for oil markets Whether the elevated option premiums represent excess profits for sellers or fair compensation for bearing tail risks, and whether option sellers amplify or dampen sharp price movements during market stress Competing algorithmic strategies and how these have been evolving in a price range bound environment How spikes in call option open interest during geopolitical tensions may influence algorithmic positioning, and how options markets, volatility premiums, and systematic strategies interact to drive price moves Comparison of momentum-based strategies that reinforce large fund positioning versus contrarian strategies that bet on mean reversion, and analysis of why contrarian strategies have recently outperformed The Impact of AI on oil trading and market volatility Key indicators and positioning trends to monitor in 2026 for understanding the influence of algorithmic strategies and hedge fund flows on oil prices
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OIES Podcast – Gas Market Outlook
02/23/2026
OIES Podcast – Gas Market Outlook
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the impact of the recent cold weather on gas markets and the outlook for the rest of 2026. We start with a review of prices over the past couple of months and a look at the key drivers behind the price spike in January. In considering how the surge in European demand was met we look at the key sources of supply, with a focus on the LNG market. This then leads to a discussion about the new sources of LNG supply that are set to become available over the next twelve months and what this might mean for the European gas market as it seeks to refill storage that has been heavily depleted over the past 3-4 months. We consider what the impact of Asian demand could be on the availability of supply to Europe, consider the main market risks over the next 12 months and conclude with some thoughts on the price outlook through the remainder of 2026 and into the first quarter of 2027.
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OIES Podcast – China 2026 Outlook: Staying the course in turbulent times
02/19/2026
OIES Podcast – China 2026 Outlook: Staying the course in turbulent times
China successfully navigated a difficult year in 2025, just hitting its official growth target despite trade wars and the country’s ongoing real estate slowdown. The country’s leadership is deep in the process of developing its next five-year plan, which is expected to focus on high technology and industrial upgrading, continuing recent policy themes rather than introducing major structural reforms. Meanwhile, policy makers are seeking to combat involution while boosting exports to ensure that the ‘New Three’ industries (solar, batteries, electric vehicles) remain a growth driver. All while maintaining energy security in the face of rising renewables and the risks of external conflicts. In this podcast, Michal Meidan and Anders Hove discuss the latest developments in China’s energy picture, including markets, policy and geopolitics. Key topics include the impact of Venezuela on China’s oil sector, the need for power market reforms to combat overcapacity in coal, the implications of rising renewables and coal on gas-fired power, and the rise of EV heavy trucks and whether they pose a threat for future LNG use in transport. Most importantly, they address the key things to watch in the coming 15th Five-Year Plan.
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OIES Podcast – EU Gas Storage Regulation – from Crisis to Flexibility
02/12/2026
OIES Podcast – EU Gas Storage Regulation – from Crisis to Flexibility
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava about her recent paper on the updated EU regulation covering gas storage. Over the course of 2022 the EU adopted a significant amount of ‘emergency’ legislation to address the consequences of the energy crisis, and a major plank of it was the Gas Storage Regulation which obliged Member States to fill their storage to at least 90 per cent of capacity by 1 November. However, as the crisis has eased the relevance of this rule has been questioned and it has even been accused of distorting the gas market. The regulation expired at the end of 2025, and an EC proposal to extend it to 2027 was met with significant opposition from several Member States and market players due to concerns that the preservation of both final and intermediary targets for filling storage would result in higher gas prices. As a result, both the European Council and the Parliament made significant changes to the proposal. This podcast provides an overview of the key provisions of the original Storage Regulation, the EC recommendation and a proposal for an extension, the Council and the Parliament positions, as well as the revised Regulation, with a view to determining the revised Regulation’s storage filling obligations and their impact on market functioning during 2025-27 and the role of the revised Regulation in shaping the ongoing revision process of the EU security of supply framework.
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OIES Podcast – Bankability of Hydrogen Projects
02/03/2026
OIES Podcast – Bankability of Hydrogen Projects
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Aliaksei Patonia and Henry Rushton about their latest paper entitled “Bankability of Hydrogen Projects: Key Risks, Financing Challenges and Mitigation Solutions.” The discussion ranges from an initial analysis of why hydrogen projects have failed to reach the scale that was anticipated a few years ago to questions around what banks are looking for as they assess the lending opportunities in the sector. While technology does not appear to be the main constraint, it is clear that costs have not fallen far enough yet to avoid the need for policy support, which continues to be a significant risk. In addition, the need for long-term offtake contracts, in the absence of a liquid hydrogen market, is also critical, and the podcast assesses who the natural early buyers of hydrogen are and what is their willingness to sign up for 15 year contracts that are seen as the minimum requirement. Finally, the authors discuss the type of policy initiatives which they regard as the key to the success of the hydrogen industry over the next decade.
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OIES Podcast – Biomethane in Europe: Why scaling up is harder than it looks
01/27/2026
OIES Podcast – Biomethane in Europe: Why scaling up is harder than it looks
In this latest OIES podcast, James Henderson speaks with Maria Olczak about her recent research on biomethane. Combined European biogas and biomethane production has grown by 34% over the past decade, reaching around 232 TWh (22 bcm) in 2024. In the podcast, they explain the difference between biogas and biomethane, review current production levels in Europe, and discuss why the EU is unlikely to meet the REPowerEU target of 35 bcm of biomethane by 2030. The discussion also explores the sources of growing market optimism, particularly in the transport sector, where demand is increasingly driven by quota obligations and new EU regulations, such as FuelEU Maritime targeting shipping sector. We look at how these demand-side instruments are shaping prices and investment signals, and assess whether this momentum is sustainable. Finally, the podcast examines the two competing growth models emerging in Europe’s biomethane sector – a subsidy-driven, producer-focused approach and a market-driven, buyer-led model – and the regulatory tensions they create. We conclude by identifying the key policy and market design issues that will need to be resolved if biomethane is to scale up effectively and integrate into the European gas market.
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OIES Podcast – Avoided Emissions in Carbon Accounting
01/22/2026
OIES Podcast – Avoided Emissions in Carbon Accounting
In this OIES podcast, Head of Carbon Management Research Hasan Muslemani speaks to Jazmin Mota about avoided emissions and their role in shaping credible, forward-looking climate strategies. The discussion defines avoided emissions as a comparative, system-level concept that estimates how much lower emissions could be relative to a realistic business-as-usual baseline, rather than emissions a company directly produces or offsets. The podcast clarifies how avoided emissions differ from reductions, removals, and offsets, positioning them as a measure of influence on wider systems rather than responsibility for past emissions. Using examples from energy and transport, the podcast shows how traditional carbon accounting can overlook the real climate value of solutions that enable others to emit less. It concludes by framing avoided emissions as a strategic decision-support tool that, when used transparently, can complement Scopes 1–3 accounting and help prioritise actions that genuinely shift emissions trajectories.
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OIES Podcast – The U.S. ousts Maduro: Implications for the oil market and beyond
01/12/2026
OIES Podcast – The U.S. ousts Maduro: Implications for the oil market and beyond
The recent events in Venezuela have been sending shock waves across the globe and energy markets. In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh (Director of OIES) talks to Michal Meidan (Head of China Energy Research Programme at OIES) and Paul Horsnell (Chairman of Board of Governors of OIES) about the repercussions on energy markets and beyond. The discussion focused on whether recent U.S. actions toward Venezuela are truly about oil or much broader even as U.S. rhetoric continues to emphasize the control over the country’s large oil reserves and its oil trade. They explored how energy considerations intersect with strategic concerns, particularly U.S. efforts to prevent rivals, most notably China, from deepening their foothold in Venezuela’s oil sector and to what extent the current events would harm China’s oil interests. The conversation also assessed short-term oil market implications and debated whether Venezuela could meaningfully boost output post-2026 despite legal, fiscal, institutional, and political hurdles, and identified key signposts to watch over the next year to gauge whether these events could shift the broader oil market narrative away from expectations of large surplus.
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OIES Podcast – Flexibility Case Studies for China’s Clean Energy Transition
12/15/2025
OIES Podcast – Flexibility Case Studies for China’s Clean Energy Transition
Power system flexibility has emerged as a central challenge of decarbonizing the electric power industry worldwide. In China, new coal-fired generation is still being added to meet rising peak loads, and newly-constructed coal plants are required to operate flexibly, but the system still features a relatively low degree of flexibility. In this podcast Anders Hove, Dimitra Apostolopoulou and David Robinson discuss three case studies of the European power sector with potential value for the Chinese energy transition. The case studies were selected at a workshop with Chinese experts, and the analysis was published in a recent OIES publication, ‘Flexibility Case Studies for the Clean Energy Transition: Suggestions for China from European Experience’. Anders, Dimitra and David cover developments in transmission and interconnection, the Nordic ancillary services markets, and demand-side flexibility – specifically looking at the case of Octopus and Kraken in the UK. Although European power markets are clearly a work in progress, the three case studies showcase different aspects of flexibility in Europe and their relevance to China. They showcase how various flexibility measures improve the utilization of existing assets (in the case of transmission), boost investment efficiency (in the case of relative technology neutrality of the Nordic ancillary services markets), and even lead to technology innovation (in the case of demand-side flexibility measures).
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OIES Podcast – Geopolitics of Gas: The Limits of Leverage
12/08/2025
OIES Podcast – Geopolitics of Gas: The Limits of Leverage
In this lates OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about their latest paper on the geopolitics that is influencing, and being influenced by, the global gas market. They start with a general overview of the current gas market and the key political drivers that are impacting the views of suppliers and consumers on the future of gas. They consider the impact of the sharp change in the direction of Russian exports since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, reflecting on the strong position this now gives to China as it further diversifies its sources of gas supply. The role of the US is also a key point of discussion, as expanding LNG exports could potentially be undermined by an overly aggressive stance on energy dominance from the White House. Gas demand in Europe appears to be on an inexorable decline, but the region could be swapping one source of supply risk (Russia) for another (US LNG). The key takeaway, though, is that at a time when overall LNG supply is set to increase sharply, major importers such as the EU, China and other regions in Asia can enhance their bargaining power and may be more inclined to do so if major suppliers try to use gas exports as a source of political power.
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OIES Podcast – From Certainty to Volatility Beyond the Contract: Managing Risks and Opportunities for Renewable Assets with expiring CfD Support
12/03/2025
OIES Podcast – From Certainty to Volatility Beyond the Contract: Managing Risks and Opportunities for Renewable Assets with expiring CfD Support
In this latest OIES podcast from the Energy Transition Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Managing Director of Energy Management, Markets and Risk at Reventus Power, Naz Osmancik, about his latest paper titled “From Certainty to Volatility Beyond the Contract: Managing Risks and Opportunities for Renewable Assets with expiring CfD Support”. This podcast explores the shifting risk landscape for renewable energy projects as they move beyond the stability of government-backed Contracts for Difference (CfDs). We discuss how the expiry of CfDs exposes investors to wholesale price volatility, uncertain dispatch, and long-term market unpredictability—factors that can sharply erode equity returns, especially since much of the value in highly geared projects is realised late in their operational life. The discussion highlights the importance of early planning, robust hedging strategies, performance optimisation, and portfolio-level risk management, while also outlining what both original and secondary investors must consider when navigating merchant exposure. Finally, the conversation turns to policy implications, emphasising the need for frameworks that acknowledge latent risks and incentivise stronger investor capabilities as more renewable assets approach CfD expiry.
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OIES Podcast – Navigating Oil Narratives
11/26/2025
OIES Podcast – Navigating Oil Narratives
On Friday, November 7, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) held its annual Oil Day, themed “Navigating Oil Narratives.” The event was organized around three main sessions: Oil demand prospects in the context of an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment Supply outlooks, covering U.S. shale, OPEC+, and non-OPEC+ producers outside the United States Inventory dynamics, including traditional relationships such as inventories versus time spreads, and the influence of hedge funds and other non-commercial participants in oil markets In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh and Paul Horsnell discuss the key insights and themes that emerged during OIES Oil Day, including revisions to demand prospects, the significance of rising crude on water, China’s crude stock behaviour, the drivers behind OPEC+8 decision to unwind its voluntary cuts, the outlook for U.S. shale, the change in the traditional relationships between stocks and time spreads, and recent shifts in hedge fund strategies.
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OIES Podcast – Chinese participation in Europe’s offshore wind sector
11/20/2025
OIES Podcast – Chinese participation in Europe’s offshore wind sector
European policymakers face a dilemma regarding the entry of Chinese firms into the European wind market. Chinese turbines are cheaper than their Western competitors. Given the small number of players in the European market, Chinese manufacturers could provide a boost to the market and inject new competitive pressure. Yet there are concerns that allowing Chinese OEMs into the offshore wind sector, either as developers of or investors in projects, or as equipment providers for European-led projects, could undermine European industry. In addition to commercial threats, security concerns have also been raised by the UK, Germany, and Sweden: Will Chinese investments pose new security risks? Are Chinese OEMs a potential tool for economic coercion by Beijing? Do they pose a threat to energy security? These and other issues are discussed in a recent paper from the Institute, ‘Chinese participation in Europe’s offshore wind sector: the good, the bad and the unknown’. In this new podcast from the China Energy Research Programme, James Henderson talks about these issues with Michal Meidan, director of the China programme, and Anders Hove, senior research fellow. The podcast discusses what is known and unknown about the risks and benefits of China’s entry into the European offshore wind industry, based on in-depth interviews with industry experts. The report finds an urgent need to identify and distinguish between risks associated with China-made components vs broader software connectivity and data risks. Meanwhile, on the cost front, low and falling prices for offshore wind in China may not translate directly to Europe.
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OIES Podcast – Lifecycle Emissions of Gas with CCS
11/12/2025
OIES Podcast – Lifecycle Emissions of Gas with CCS
In a new episode of the OIES podcast, host Hasan Muslemani speaks with Mathieu Lucquiaud and Ryan Cowden about their groundbreaking research on how electricity from natural gas can achieve lifecycle emissions comparable to renewables – if paired with carbon capture and cleaner production practices. The discussion unpacks how upstream methane and CO₂ emissions can be slashed through regulation and technology, how carbon capture rates above 98% are now technically and economically viable, and why lifecycle analysis is key to assessing true climate impact. The takeaway: natural gas with CCS, when done right, could complement renewables by providing reliable, low-carbon power, helping balance grids without compromising net-zero goals.
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OIES Podcast – The Global Outlook for Gas Demand in a $6 World
11/04/2025
OIES Podcast – The Global Outlook for Gas Demand in a $6 World
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about the paper he has edited on the outlook for as demand in a world of gas prices at $6/mmbtu. The concept of the paper is based on the consensus view that the imminent wave of new LNG projects will cause an oversupply of gas in the market and lead to lower prices through the rest of this decade. A number of OIES research fellows have analysed what this might do to gas demand as consumers react to lower prices, and Mike has brought the results together in a paper which looks at the major markets that import LNG. The analysis starts with Europe, before moving onto to Asia (in particular China and India) and then to Africa and Central and South America. Overall, a lower gas price is seen as a providing a significant boost to gas demand, with the implication that the market may well balance at a price higher than $6.
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OIES Podcast – How is Article 6’s global regulatory carbon market moving from concept to reality?
10/27/2025
OIES Podcast – How is Article 6’s global regulatory carbon market moving from concept to reality?
In a new Oxford Institute for Energy Studies podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Hannah Hauman, Global Head of Carbon Trading at Trafigura about Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and how the carbon market is unlocking scalable investment and trade. The podcast describes the current market foundations and first trades, demand forecasts to 2030 based on existing regulation, and the key enablers to ensure supply can deliver against the ask: digital infrastructure, robust legal frameworks, and financial products to scale investment. Together, these steps can help carbon become a scalable, globally traded commodity that accelerates cross-border trade.
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