Felix Nikolas Prehn Podcast

Felix Nikolas Prehn is a German-born economist, former investment banker and author of The Inflation Tax, The Petrodollar and The Stablecoin, published by The Prehn Institute. Each episode breaks down how inflation, sovereign debt and the global monetary system affect ordinary people, investors and policymakers. Felix trained in economics at University College London and worked in investment banking in Hong Kong before founding The Prehn Institute and co-founding TradeVision.io. Topics include inflation mechanics, central bank policy, sovereign debt cycles, stablecoins and the petrodollar system. New episodes weekly.

Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens When Interest Costs Outrun Growth 10/14/2026

Japan Bond Crisis And The Dollar: Why Gold Is Not Ready 10/13/2026

Japan Bond Crisis And The Dollar: Why Gold Is Not Ready Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit a record 4.18 per cent, a event Felix Nikolas Prehn argues is a dress rehearsal for what awaits the United States and other heavily indebted economies. The episode traces the so-called widow maker trade, which bet against Japanese bonds for three decades and has now finally paid off, wiping more than 200 billion dollars from Japanese equities in a single session. Prehn draws parallels between today's AI-driven speculation and the NASDAQ bubble of 2000, noting that global yields have reached levels not seen since 2007 or earlier. He examines how the dollar has lost roughly 88 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and warns that the paper gold market carries far more claims than physical metal in vaults. Many gold funds, he notes, hold no actual bars, leaving holders with promises rather than protection. In this episode: 00:00 Japan's 30-year bond yield hits an all-time high of 4.18 per cent 01:00 The widow maker trade finally pays off after three decades 05:02 How the Bank of Japan suppressed rates by buying its own debt 06:02 The yen weakens as the price of sustained money printing 07:02 AI capital spending collides with rising global interest rates 08:04 Parallels between today's valuations and the NASDAQ 2000 crash 10:05 US 30-year yields touch 5.3 per cent amid a global bond sell-off 12:09 The dollar has lost 88 per cent of purchasing power since 1971 Sources mentioned: Financial Times (global bond sell-off reporting), https://www.ft.com Warren Buffett (referenced via associate remarks on internet bubble) Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve) Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43275413

Monetary Reset: Gold Outflows, Digital Dollar And Fed Pressure 10/13/2026

Monetary Reset: Gold Outflows, Digital Dollar And Fed Pressure A monetary reset is already under way, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker who traces four concurrent developments back to a single cause. European central banks are shipping gold home from New York vaults for the first time in decades. Norway's sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting roughly 80 billion dollars of US treasury holdings. Twenty one of the world's largest banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America, have announced a joint US dollar stablecoin set to launch in 2027. Meanwhile the US president has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates ahead of its September meeting. Prehn argues these moves all reflect eroding trust in the existing dollar system and draws a parallel with the Netherlands' gold conversion request in 1971, which preceded the end of dollar gold convertibility. He concludes that holding diversified hard assets and businesses with pricing power is a more prudent stance than remaining fully concentrated in a top heavy index. In this episode: 00:00 The September Fed deadline and presidential pressure on rate cuts 01:02 Gold physically leaving American vaults for Europe 05:09 S&P 500 concentration in ten stocks driving 72 per cent of gains 07:41 Gold as a trust barometer for the dollar system 09:11 The 1971 Dutch gold request and the Nixon shock parallel 12:14 Norway's sovereign wealth fund trimming US treasuries 13:45 Japan's market wobble as the first crack in the system 14:47 Twenty one banks building a digital dollar stablecoin for 2027 Sources mentioned: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, https://www.newyorkfed.org Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway sovereign wealth fund), https://www.nbim.no Jan Nieuwenhuijs (gold analyst) GENIUS Act (US stablecoin legislation) Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), https://www.berkshirehathaway.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43275253

US Debt Buyback Programme: What Doubling Money Printing Means 10/12/2026

US Debt Buyback Programme: What Doubling Money Printing Means The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buyback programme and run it through to early November is the focus of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces how the government is creating new money to purchase its own long-dated bonds at the same time as Japan, historically the most loyal foreign holder of American debt, sold roughly 88 billion dollars of US bonds in a single month. He sets out how real world inflation since 2020 has, in his view, exceeded 100 per cent, and notes that the dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since 1971 on official figures alone. He examines the additional pressure of an estimated one trillion dollars in corporate borrowing for AI data centres, the physical movement of gold out of US vaults at record levels, and the concentration of S&P 500 gains in just ten names. He concludes that holding assets with real pricing power matters more than ever when the money supply is expanding this fast. In this episode: 00:00 Treasury doubles its debt buyback programme through to November 01:00 Physical gold leaving US vaults at record export levels 01:33 Japan sells 88 billion dollars of American debt in one month 04:05 Real inflation since 2020 estimated at well over 100 per cent 05:36 How the buyback mechanism works and who pays for it 06:36 Fed rate expectations diverge from government loosening 13:46 AI buildout adds roughly one trillion dollars in new corporate debt 17:19 Pattern matches the 1971 closing of the gold window Sources mentioned: US Treasury refunding statement, https://home.treasury.gov Japanese investor holdings of US debt (Ministry of Finance Japan), https://www.mof.go.jp/english/ US Bureau of Labour Statistics (dollar purchasing power), https://www.bls.gov Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43257893

Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens If The World Stops Needing Dollars For Oil 10/12/2026

Felix Nikolas Prehn: The Credit Reset 10/12/2026

Fed Losing Control: How AI Borrowing Reshapes Bonds And Gold 10/11/2026

Fed Losing Control: How AI Borrowing Reshapes Bonds And Gold The Federal Reserve is losing its grip on long term interest rates, according to senior Goldman Sachs traders who describe the central bank as more passenger than driver. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the mechanism: technology companies building AI infrastructure are on track to issue more debt than the US government next year, with borrowing approaching 1.3 trillion dollars. That wave is absorbing global savings, pushing bond yields higher and creating inflation before any productivity gains arrive. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled annual gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes, absorbing roughly a third of new mine supply and thinning the market available to other buyers. Goldman's metals desk calls the recent gold pullback an elongated pause rather than a top, viewing 4,000 dollars an ounce as a floor. Silver offers larger potential moves in both directions owing to its far thinner investment market. The episode concludes that inaction carries its own considerable risk. In this episode: 00:00 Goldman traders say the Fed is now a passenger 01:33 Gold desk calls the dip an elongated pause 04:38 AI borrowing set to dwarf US government debt 06:10 The global savings glut era is declared over 08:41 AI spending is inflationary before productivity arrives 09:42 Government bond buybacks called a firecracker in a hurricane 16:48 Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1000 tonnes 20:24 Silver offers bigger upside but violent drops Sources mentioned: Goldman Sachs cross-asset trading desk, https://www.goldmansachs.com Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs global metals trading Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs equity franchise sales Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43248383

Gold And The Financial Reset: Why Central Banks Are Buying 10/11/2026

Gold And The Financial Reset: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold pulled back roughly 20 per cent from its highs, yet central banks bought a record amount in a single quarter, spending some 40 billion dollars on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn connects this buying spree to a broader pattern: Bank of America data showing productivity and consumer confidence falling together for the first time since 2008, despite 1.5 trillion dollars already spent on AI. He examines the concentration risk inside the S and P 500, where 70 per cent of this year's gains came from just ten AI related stocks. He outlines the BRICS backed Unit settlement system, designed to bypass SWIFT and underpinned by 40 per cent gold, potentially launching later this year. Drawing parallels with the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve pinned rates to absorb government debt and inflation halved the purchasing power of savings in six years, he argues the same debt playbook is repeating now with US debt again above 120 per cent of GDP. In this episode: 00:00 Productivity and consumer confidence fall together for the first time since 2008 03:32 1.5 trillion dollars spent on AI with no measurable productivity gain 05:05 Altman, Amodei and Musk call to slow AI development 06:06 Ten stocks account for 70 per cent of S and P 500 returns this year 11:12 Central banks bought a record amount of gold in a single quarter 13:14 The Unit settlement system backed by 40 per cent gold explained 14:46 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gold price targets up to 6000 dollars 17:23 The 1940s debt playbook and how it quietly eroded savings Sources mentioned: Bank of America (Michael Hartnett research) Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com ING, https://www.ing.com Financial Times, https://www.ft.com Kitco, https://www.kitco.com OpenAI (Sam Altman), https://www.openai.com Anthropic (Dario Amodei), https://www.anthropic.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43247788

Sulphuric Acid Ban And Dollar Crisis: What Comes Next 10/10/2026

Sulphuric Acid Ban And Dollar Crisis: What Comes Next Sulphuric acid may be an obscure commodity, but its sudden disappearance from global markets matters. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how Russia's export ban, following China's earlier cut, removes the two largest suppliers of a chemical essential to fertiliser production. The remaining supply depends on Middle Eastern sulphur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, the same chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world's oil. With crude above one hundred dollars a barrel and Chevron's chief executive stating that price buffers are exhausted, Prehn argues that energy and food inflation will arrive together. He then examines how Washington's sanctions programme is pushing foreign holders away from the dollar, why hedge funds sitting on 2.2 trillion dollars of leveraged treasury positions pose a systemic risk, and why central banks have bought 22 billion dollars of gold in three weeks. He concludes that the Federal Reserve is trapped between defending the bond market and defending the currency, and that the likely outcome is further money printing. In this episode: 00:00 Russia bans sulphuric acid exports, following China's earlier cut 01:02 Half the world's sulphur transits the Strait of Hormuz 02:02 Oil above one hundred dollars and rising 03:05 Fertiliser shortage threatens food prices 04:05 Chevron CEO says price buffers are exhausted 06:40 Dollar weaponised through sanctions on Iran 10:43 Hedge funds hold 2.2 trillion dollars in leveraged treasury trades 17:53 Fed trapped between bond market and dollar stability Sources mentioned: Chevron (CEO remarks on fuel crisis), https://www.chevron.com US Treasury (Operation Economic Outcast sanctions), https://home.treasury.gov Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43243463

Rate Hikes And Oil Shocks: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold 10/10/2026

Rate Hikes And Oil Shocks: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold Gold and its role during supply side inflation form the core of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, traces the parallels between the current environment and the 1970s oil shock, when gold rose from roughly 100 dollars to 850 dollars. He argues that raising interest rates does not address inflation driven by energy input costs and instead punishes borrowers while leaving the underlying price pressure intact. The episode examines how 8 trillion dollars of US government debt must be refinanced at higher rates, why the debt to GDP ratio now matches post war levels, and how that constrains the authorities from holding rates high long enough to suppress inflation. Central banks are responding by buying gold at the fastest pace since the late 1990s. Prehn concludes that inflation is likely to run hotter than official figures suggest, eroding the purchasing power of cash and concentrated equity portfolios alike. In this episode: 00:00 Fed raises rates into an oil shock 01:02 Farming input costs and diesel prices surge 03:34 Supply side versus demand side inflation explained 08:08 Energy costs multiply through the economy 09:39 Dollar purchasing power decline since 2000 12:43 Government debt refinancing at higher rates 14:17 Volcker era compared with current debt levels 19:55 Central bank gold buying at fastest pace in decades Sources mentioned: Financial Times, https://www.ft.com US Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov John Boyd Jr. (American farmer) Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43243168

US Oil Reserve At 44 Year Low: What Three Signals Reveal 10/09/2026

US Oil Reserve At 44 Year Low: What Three Signals Reveal The US strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982 after 26 consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Felix Nikolas Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, argues this drawdown is not about supply shortages but about suppressing the oil price to keep inflation figures manageable while the government prepares to print more money. He links the reserve depletion to two other developments: the US Treasury doubling its own debt buybacks to four billion dollars per operation, and the fact that three private companies, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, are now valued above 45 years of public tech listings combined. Household exposure to equities has reached a record, with five stocks making up 30 per cent of the S&P 500. Prehn notes that central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace since 1997 and that informed sellers are rotating out of technology names into cash generating businesses. He concludes that the dollar has lost 93 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and that the same pattern is being repeated. In this episode: 00:00 US strategic petroleum reserve at a 44 year low 01:02 Three signals appearing at the same time 02:33 Debt trap and why inflation is the only political exit 04:37 Venezuelan oil cannot meet reserve specifications 05:38 Manufactured calm before an inflation spike 08:41 Treasury doubles buybacks of its own debt 11:46 Three private firms worth more than 45 years of IPOs 15:19 Informed money rotates into boring toll booth businesses Sources mentioned: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve data, https://www.energy.gov US Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov Berkshire Hathaway, https://www.berkshirehathaway.com SpaceX, https://www.spacex.com Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.com OpenAI, https://www.openai.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43232743

Dollar Reset: How Inflation Is Being Quietly Recalibrated 10/09/2026

Dollar Reset: How Inflation Is Being Quietly Recalibrated The dollar reset now under way is not a dramatic redenomination but a slow widening gap between official inflation figures and actual living costs. Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the chain from mortgage rates approaching 8 per cent to the bond market repricing risk at levels last seen before the 2008 crisis. He outlines Bill Ackman's argument that rate rises may be feeding rather than fighting inflation, because AI capital spending and embedded financing costs pass straight through to consumer prices. The episode then examines how the government is changing the PCE calculation method, which one Wall Street strategist estimates could shave half a percentage point off reported inflation without any price in a shop falling. Prehn shows how the Treasury's TGA account is injecting tens of billions into the banking system independently of the Fed, effectively making the Treasury the real central bank. He concludes that the combination of reported lower inflation and quietly looser liquidity amounts to a slow transfer from savers to the government. In this episode: 00:00 Mortgage rates jump toward 8 per cent overnight 01:00 Bill Ackman argues rate rises may feed inflation 05:01 AI spending ignores higher borrowing costs 07:01 The Fed faces two losing doors on rates 10:32 Government changing how PCE inflation is measured 13:05 Prices up 2200 per cent since 1940 14:06 The quiet dollar reset plan explained 15:36 Treasury TGA account becomes the real central bank Sources mentioned: Bill Ackman Tom Lee, Fundstrat US Treasury General Account (TGA), https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov Federal Reserve PCE inflation measure, https://www.bea.gov New York Fed conference on overnight lending, https://www.newyorkfed.org Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43231923

Money Supply Growth And Stock Markets: Where The Cash Flows 10/08/2026

Money Supply Growth And Stock Markets: Where The Cash Flows Money supply in America is growing at its fastest pace since 2022, reaching 23 trillion dollars, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues this matters more for stock prices than the economic headlines suggest. The episode sets out why high oil prices now benefit American shareholders rather than draining the economy, given that the United States produces roughly 66 per cent more crude than Saudi Arabia. It examines the collapse in real estate job openings, which halved between July and August to their lowest level in the available data, and explains how that weakness may give the Federal Reserve cover to stop raising rates. Prehn notes that 82 per cent of S and P 500 constituents are down even as the index rises, meaning printed money is flowing into a narrow band of stocks rather than lifting the broad market. He draws on the AAII sentiment survey, where 48 per cent of respondents expect lower prices, and historical episodes in which extreme bearishness preceded strong rallies. In this episode: 00:00 Scary headlines each have a second half the news omits 02:01 America is the largest oil producer and benefits from high prices 04:06 Oil company fundamentals and cash flows are improving 05:07 82 per cent of S and P 500 stocks are down despite index gains 06:37 Skilled money follows the trend rather than buying and holding 07:38 Real estate job openings halved to their lowest recorded level 09:10 Weak housing data may give the Fed cover to ease off rates 10:11 The stock market is not an economic thermometer Sources mentioned: U.S. Energy Information Administration (oil production data), https://www.eia.gov Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov Bureau of Labour Statistics (job openings data), https://www.bls.gov American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43221398

Financial Repression: How Inflation Is Used To Shrink Debt 10/08/2026

Financial Repression: How Inflation Is Used To Shrink Debt Financial repression is the mechanism by which governments keep interest rates below the rate of inflation, quietly transferring wealth from savers to the state. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces the policy from a recent presidential admission that inflation will pay off the national debt very rapidly to a Bank for International Settlements study showing the same method erased 2 to 3 per cent of GDP in debt each year after the Second World War. He sets out why the four conventional options for addressing 40 trillion dollars of US debt, raising taxes, cutting spending, defaulting or debasing the currency, leave only debasement as politically survivable. He examines the widening K-shaped economy, presents an hours of work index now at 341 compared with 100 in 2000, and warns that forcing rates down risks eroding the dollar's reserve status if confidence breaks. In this episode: 00:00 President states inflation will pay off the debt 02:34 The full quote from the magazine interview 04:11 Treasury secretary says the US can grow out of 40 trillion 05:14 Financial repression defined and explained 06:16 Post-war debt erased by holding rates below inflation 06:46 Four options for 40 trillion and why only one survives 10:41 Why interest rates must be forced below inflation 15:40 Hours of work index at 341 versus 100 in 2000 Sources mentioned: Time magazine interview with the president Bank for International Settlements study on financial repression (2011), https://www.bis.org CNBC interview (2016), https://www.cnbc.com Washington Post interview, https://www.washingtonpost.com Alan Greenspan quote on printing money Federal Reserve wealth distribution data, https://www.federalreserve.gov Ray Dalio on beautiful deleveraging Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43220013

Felix Nikolas Prehn: Why Gold Drops When Debt Breaks 10/07/2026

Bond Market Crisis: Why Gold Falls When Debt Breaks 10/07/2026

Bond Market Crisis: Why Gold Falls When Debt Breaks Bond yields are climbing simultaneously in Japan, Europe and the United States, and Felix Nikolas Prehn argues these are not separate headlines but a single debt crisis unfolding across the developed world. Japan's 30-year yield has reached an all-time high while carrying debt of roughly 260 per cent of output. France's bond selloff is spreading to Italy, Belgium and Greece, and even German yields are rising. In America, annual interest on federal debt has reached 1.25 trillion dollars. Gold has fallen alongside these moves, which Prehn attributes to dollar strength, a crowded trade and forced selling through margin calls on the paper market. He traces the same pattern in the 1970s and 2008, when gold dropped early in a crisis before repricing sharply higher once money printing accelerated. Broad money supply is now growing at its fastest pace in four years, and Prehn concludes that governments intend to inflate the debt away through sustained financial repression. In this episode: 00:00 Japan 30-year bond yield hits all-time high 03:17 Europe's bond selloff spreads from France to Italy, Belgium and Greece 04:19 US debt interest reaches 1.25 trillion dollars a year 05:28 Three reasons gold is falling despite the debt crisis 09:37 Financial repression explained and the plan to inflate debt away 12:13 Hours of work index shows real purchasing power has tripled in cost 14:03 Historical pattern of gold dropping before repricing higher 16:08 How to assess portfolio exposure through a debt lens Sources mentioned: Bank of Japan, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/ Alan Greenspan Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43205953

Government Debt Crisis: Why Inflation Is The Only Way Out 10/07/2026

Government Debt Crisis: Why Inflation Is The Only Way Out Government debt levels in the United States and other major economies have reached a point where the only politically viable exit is sustained inflation funded by money printing, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, economist and former investment banker. The episode traces how the US used the same approach after the Second World War and in the 1970s, and how Japan has run a version of it since the 1990s. Felix examines the rapid growth in M2 money supply, the concentration of stock market gains in a narrow band of AI related companies, and the risk of an eventual correction when capital spending overshoots. He discusses central bank gold purchases as a response to the freezing of Russian reserves, the limited alternatives to the dollar, and the likelihood that AI will prove deflationary over time but not before a speculative bubble bursts. His conclusion is that holding cash is a near certain loss and that assets, despite their risks, remain the rational choice. In this episode: 02:00 Negative economic signals but why stocks can still rise 05:20 M2 money supply growth and government stimulus 10:37 Inflation as the only tool to reduce government debt 14:14 Hours of work index and real cost of assets 17:43 AI spending bubble and the risk of a sharp correction 25:02 Japan as a template for US debt management 30:52 Central bank gold buying after Russian asset freezes 35:14 Dollar dominance and stablecoins as a prop for demand Sources mentioned: Federal Reserve M2 money supply data, https://www.federalreserve.gov AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment survey, https://www.aaii.com Prehn Institute Jim Rogers Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast. Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com Research: https://prehninstitute.com Author site: https://felixprehn.com /episode/index/show/bbbbb215-bb7c-4ade-bf4e-16de921c6d1f/id/43205363

Felix Nikolas Prehn: How Governments Shrink Debt By Making Money Weaker 10/04/2026

Felix Nikolas Prehn Podcast

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