CNA Talks: A National Security Podcast
CNA’s experts understand today’s complex and dynamic national security environment. On CNA Talks, you’ll find analysis of globe-shaping conflicts, foreign policy and shifting alliances, regional breakdowns, pandemics and other health crises, environmental disasters, homeland security concerns, and the future of strategic competition. Follow CNA Talks to go behind the headlines and learn from data-driven, objective, discussions on the factors shaping today’s national security landscape.
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Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong and the future of Russia-North Korea relations
09/27/2023
Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong and the future of Russia-North Korea relations
On September 13, North Korean Leader Kim Jong met with Russian President Vladmir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia’s most advanced space launch site. The meeting sparked concern in the West that Kim could supply Russia with weapons and munitions for its war in Ukraine and speculation about what North Korea would receive in return. In this episode, Ken Gause and Paul Schwartz discuss the significance of the meeting and its implications for US policy makers. is an expert on the North Korean leadership and political system. He has written several books on North Korea, focusing on its politics, military apparatus, and internal security system, including “North Korean House of Cards.” Paul Schwartz is a Research Scientist with CNA’s . Further Reading : Assessing the Impact of Equipment Shortages on Russian Military Operations in Ukraine
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Large Scale Exercise 2023
09/13/2023
Large Scale Exercise 2023
Last month, the Navy and the Marine Corps held Large Scale Exercise 2023. The exercise integrates six Navy and Marine Corps component commands and seven numbered fleets across the globe. More than 10,000 Sailors and Marines across 22 time zones participated in the exercise. 48 CNA analysts supported this exercise, including 14 aboard ships in all 7 Numbered Fleets. In this episode, Josh Tallis and Mallory Ladd, who deployed during the exercise, join the podcast to discuss their experience and how this on-site analysis is central to CNA’s approach to research. Biographies is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA's , with expertise in maritime security and Arctic, Euro-Atlantic, and NATO naval strategy. is a Research Scientist with CNA’s . She specializes in joint all-domain training and readiness, Arctic science and maritime operations, and contested logistics. Links : Josh Tallis Deployment, USS Mount Whitney : Mallory Ladd Deployment, USS Carl Vinson : Josh Tallis Deployment, USS Mount Whitney : Mallory Ladd Deployment, USS Carl Vinson
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DePoy Award Winner: Jerry Meyerle
08/30/2023
DePoy Award Winner: Jerry Meyerle
CNA’s Phil E. DePoy Award recognizes analytic excellence, harmonious relations with colleagues and clients, and dedication to this organization. The ideal candidate produces consistently superb analysis, communicates effectively to expert and lay audiences alike, leads teams well, and influences the thinking and decisions of sponsors through their work. In this episode, this year’s winner, Jerry Meyerle, joins the podcast to discuss his deployment to Afghanistan, his work's impact, and advise new CNA analysts. is a Principal Research Scientist with CNA’s and an expert in military operations, defense policy and posture, strategic planning, and combatant commands.
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Moving at the Speed of Innovation — Regulating Package Delivery Drones
08/16/2023
Moving at the Speed of Innovation — Regulating Package Delivery Drones
Companies, including Amazon, UPS, and Domino's are all investing in package delivery drones. These systems represent a significant paradigm shift from the current air traffic control model. With the private sector moving at the speed of innovation, the government will need new tools to regulate this new airspace. In this episode, we discuss CNA’s new agent-based model, UAS Cooperative Airspace Traffic Simulation (UCATS), and how it can help the FAA and local stakeholders fairly regulate package delivery drone operations. Guest Biographies is Systems Engineer with CNA’s Center for Data Management Analytics and the lead engineer on this model. She is an artificial intelligence and machine learning expert for the Federal Aviation Administration's Office of NextGen and a data visualization and modeling specialist. is a Systems Engineer with CNA’s Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization. He is a cybersecurity expert specializing in the intersection of uncrewed technologies and cybersecurity for multiple federal government clients. is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization. He is an expert in FAA and traditional air traffic management, and supports the FAA Command Center in Warrenton, VA. Further Reading CNA: CNA:
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Alliance Wedge Strategies: Russia
08/02/2023
Alliance Wedge Strategies: Russia
In great power strategic competition, states deploy wedge strategies to divide, weaken, and prevent opposing alliances. In part two of a two-part series on the topic, host David Wallsh moderates a discussion on Russia's wedge strategies in the Global South and how the United States can address this challenge. is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies program. He is an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union, the Russian military, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. He is also an associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. is Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and Professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University. She is also a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the Brookings Institution and co-chairs its Hewett Forum on Post-Soviet Affairs. Further Reading CNA Report:
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Alliance Wedge Strategies: China
07/19/2023
Alliance Wedge Strategies: China
In great power strategic competition, states deploy wedge strategies to divide, weaken, and prevent opposing alliances. In part one of a two-part series on the topic, host David Wallsh moderates a discussion on Chinese wedge strategies in the Indo-Pacific and how the United States can address this challenge. Biographies David Wallsh is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Division. Dr. Wallsh is an expert in alliance politics, Middle East security, and US security cooperation programs. is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division. Dr. Herlevi is an expert on the People’s Republic of China's (PRC) foreign and security policy, economic statecraft for technology acquisition, and the increasing role of PRC commercial, economic, and military actors globally. Twitter: @herlevi1 is a Research Fellow with the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at NDU. Prior to arriving at INSS, Dr. Taffer was a Research Scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs division at the Center for Naval Analyses. is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Dr. Yoshihara was previously the inaugural John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies and a Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. Further Reading CNA Report: CNA InDepth:
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National Security Seminar: Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations
07/05/2023
National Security Seminar: Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations
On April 20, 2023, CNA’s National Security Seminar (NSS) series hosted a virtual panel discussion on the challenges, opportunities, and risks of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into nuclear operations. The event was centered on a recently released CNA report, Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations. Guest Biographies Mallory Stewart, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance, US Department of State Paul Scharre, Vice President and Director of Studies and military uses of AI Expert, CNAS Timothy P. McDonnell, Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, Larry Lewis, Principal Research Scientist and AI expert, Special Activities and Analysis Program, CNA
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Cheap Commercial Drones and the War in Ukraine
06/21/2023
Cheap Commercial Drones and the War in Ukraine
High-end, long-range combat drones like the MQ-1 Predator can fly for thousands of miles and strike adversaries from far away. They are also extremely expensive—one MQ1 costs $20 million—and manufacturing takes time. Such drones are in short supply in Russia, creating a gap in Russian military capabilities. But Russia has adapted. This episode examines Russian use of cheap commercial and foreign-made drones in Ukraine—how this impacts dynamics on the ground and what this may reveal about the broader Russian war effort. Related Resources Guest Biography Samuel Bendett is an Advisor with CNA’s Russia Studies Program. His research focuses on Russian defense and technology developments; uncrewed, robotic, and autonomous military systems; artificial intelligence; and Russian military capabilities. His analysis of Russia’s war against Ukraine has appeared in globally-read news outlets such as VICE and The Washington Post. Further Reading CNA Report:
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Not Just Nuclear Weapons: How China Views Strategic Deterrence
06/07/2023
Not Just Nuclear Weapons: How China Views Strategic Deterrence
For decades, competition between the United States and Russia has defined strategic deterrence. But as China emerges as the greatest rival to the United States, it is worth examining how Beijing views the concept. In this episode we examine how China’s military and civilian analysts are writing about strategic deterrence, and how new technologies and domains impact their perception. Guest Biographies is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Indo-Pacific Security Affairs division. His research focuses on focuses on Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) organization and Indo-Pacific maritime and space security issues. Timothy Ditter is a Research Scientist with CNA’s China Studies Program. His work covers PLA amphibious warfare, China’s military modernization and expansion, China’s growing nuclear weapons program, and China’s nascent global military presence. Further Reading CNA Report: CNA Report:
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Why Hasn’t Russia Established Air Superiority?
05/24/2023
Why Hasn’t Russia Established Air Superiority?
One of the defining features of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been the inability of the much larger and more advanced Russian Aerospace Forces to establish air superiority in the conflict. This surprised analysts and prompted a widespread reconsideration of the services’ capabilities as well as the potential threat it poses to NATO countries. In this episode CNA’s Julian Waller and RUSI’s Justin Bronk join John Stimpson, to examine Russian air operations during the Ukraine War and ask what lessons policy makers can learn from them. Guest Biographies is the Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at the (RUSI), and the Editor of the RUSI Defence Systems online journal. His areas of expertise include the modern combat air environment, Russian and Chinese ground-based air defences and fast jet capabilities, the air war during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unmanned combat aerial vehicles and novel weapons technology. Twitter: @Justin_Br0nk is an associate Research analyst in CNA’s program. He is expert in the politics of authoritarian regimes in post-Soviet Eurasia and Europe, with a focus on Russian and Ukrainian domestic political institutions and their relation to political-military issues. At CNA, he has developed reports on Russian military strategy, political media analysis and domestic artificial intelligence developments. Twitter: @JulianWaller Further Reading - Russian Combat Air Strengths and Limitations: Lessons from Ukraine
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How Can Jurisdictions Secure Their Elections?
05/10/2023
How Can Jurisdictions Secure Their Elections?
Free and fair elections are an essential of the democratic process, but in recent years foreign inference and disinformation have shaken voters trust in the electoral system. In this episode, guest host Sabrina Verleysen, sits down with CNA’s Dawn Thomas and former Elections Assistance Commissioner Matt Masterson. They discuss how jurisdictions can secure their elections, what resources are available to them and how to ensure their voters are confident in the results. Guests served as Senior Cybersecurity Advisor at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (known as CISA), where he focused on election security issues. He previously served as a Commissioner at the Election Assistance Commission from December 2014 until March 2018, including serving as the Commission’s Chairman in 2017-2018. is a co-director of the Center for Emergency Management and Operations and director of the Center for Critical Incident Analysis. She is an expert in large-scale incident planning and response. She has worked on a large array of emergency preparedness issues including: biological attacks, active shooters, large-scale evacuations, medical evacuations, earthquakes and tsunamis, mass casualty chemical incidents, public health outbreaks and cyberattacks. is an expert in government relations and Indonesian civilian-military relations. She collaborates regularly on business development lifecycle activities and executes strategic initiatives, events, and engagements. In addition, she supports projects funded by the Department of State that focus on civilian harm mitigation. Further Reading Learn more about using workshops, drills, and on CNA.org. If you’d like to receive updates about upcoming election security seminars please email .
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Exploring Drones as Tools for Public Safety
04/26/2023
Exploring Drones as Tools for Public Safety
Drones have become a ubiquitous part of our society, used by everyday people for fun or as part of their business. The potential of these tools seems limitless but one area that is less discussed is how they can be used by first responders and emergency managers to help keep the public safe. In this episode Addam Jordan and Marina Rozenblat join John Stimpson. To discuss how jurisdiction can successfully implement drones into their public safety and emergency response plans. Guest Biographies is the Chief Scientist for CNA’s . She is an expert in data management, cybersecurity, uncrewed aircraft systems, and aviation applications of AI and machine learning. is the Chief Scientist for CNA’s . He specializes in new entrants, uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity. Further Reading Sign up for Marina’s workshop . CNA Spotlight:
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The Largest Protest Movement in Israel's History
04/12/2023
The Largest Protest Movement in Israel's History
For the past 3 months Israel has experienced the largest mass protest movement in its history. The demonstrators oppose judicial reforms which, if enacted, would give the government greater control over appointing Supreme Court judges and allow its parliament to overrule supreme court decisions. In this episode, Samuel Plapinger returns to the podcast to discuss the protests, why they have been so effective and what this portends for Prime Minster Netanyahu’s administration. is a Research Scientist with CNA’s . He is an expert on strategic competition, irregular warfare, combat effectiveness, insurgency, terrorism, and Middle East security. Episode Links : Israel’s New Government Is the Most Far-right in Its History : Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations
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Finland and Sweden's NATO Accession
03/29/2023
Finland and Sweden's NATO Accession
In this episode, Dmirtry Gorenburg and Steve Wills join John Stimpson. They discuss Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession and what it means for the alliance and for Russia. Dmitry Gorenburg is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s . He is an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union, the Russian military, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. He is also an associate at the Davis center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard university. Twitter: @russmil Steve Wills is a Research Scientist with CNA’s . As a Navy historian, his research interests include the history of U.S. Navy strategy development over the Cold War and immediate post-Cold War eras, and the post-World War II Navy surface fleet. He is an also the Navalist at the Center for maritime strategy at Navy league US. Twitter: @Lazarus_Navy
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NSS Event: Nuclear Cooperation with Strategic Competitors
03/23/2023
NSS Event: Nuclear Cooperation with Strategic Competitors
In this bonus episode of CNA Talks, we are bringing you the recording of CNA’s recent National Security Seminar, “Nuclear cooperation with strategic competitors,” which has held on March 21, 2023. The event featured panelists Timothy McDonnell and Rose Gottemoeller. McDonnell is the author of a recent CNA publication entitled, “Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management.” This report uses archival sources to examine three historical cases of great power nuclear cooperation, distilling lessons and insights for practitioners. During the event Dr. McDonnell shared his findings and then discussed them with Gottemoeller, a seasoned arms control practitioner, about its findings and implications. The event was moderated by CNA’s Mary Chesnut. , Steven C. Házy Lecturer, Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; former Deputy Secretary General, NATO; former Under Secretary for Arms Control & International Security and chief US negotiator for the New START Treaty, US State Department Timothy P. McDonnell, Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, , CNA. He is the author of the report, “Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management.” , Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, , CNA Further Reading - Working with the Adversary: Great Power Competetion and Nuclear Risk Management
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Virtual Reality for Naval Training
03/15/2023
Virtual Reality for Naval Training
The Naval Diving and Salvage Training Center, in Panama City Florida, trains more than 1,200 military divers from across the services. These students are persuing certificates in everything from underwater construction to explosive ordnance disposal. In this episode, Neil Carey joins John Stimpson to discuss his research on the potential of extended reality technology (which includes virtual reality, augmented reality and mix/merged reality) as a tool for the training and assessment of these divers. Resources Dr. Neil Carey is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s . He is an expert in psychological measurement, cognitive psychology, and their applications to learning. : The Promise and Pitfalls Of Extended Reality In Naval Training
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New Export Rules for Semiconductors
03/01/2023
New Export Rules for Semiconductors
In this episode, we examine a new regulation from the Department of Commerce aimed at limiting China’s access to semiconductors and microchips, the impact it is having on China and how U.S. partner nations are responding. Guests April Herlevi is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA's Indo-Pacific Security Affairs program. She is an expert in China's foreign economic policy, special economic zones, and economic statecraft. Christopher Cairns is a Research Scientist with CNA's Indo-Pacific Security Affairs program. He is an expert in China's economic statecraft and technology acquisition efforts and U.S. ally and partner issues in the Indo-Pacific. Links To subscribe to the Intersections newsletter, please email Intersections Issue 1: Intersections Issue 2:
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A New Paradigm for the Middle East
02/15/2023
A New Paradigm for the Middle East
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been the predominant foreign power in the Middle East, influencing the economic, political and security affairs of the region. But in recent years other great powers have begun to chip away at this power, carving out their own spheres of influence in the region. In this episode, we explore the strategic objectives of China and Russia in the Middle East, the tools they are using to achieve them, and what this means for U.S. policymakers. Guests is an expert in Persian Gulf security-related issues, the armed forces of Iran, U.S.-GCC security cooperation, and adversary cyber policy and strategy. is an expert on strategic competition, irregular warfare, combat effectiveness, insurgency, terrorism, and Middle East security. Links : China’s Presence in the Middle East and Western Indian Ocean : Putin, Raisi and Their Common Enemy
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NATO's Maritime Future with Joshua Tallis (Sea Power)
02/01/2023
NATO's Maritime Future with Joshua Tallis (Sea Power)
This episode originally aired on CIMSEC's . Special thanks to their team for allowing up to rebroadcast this episode. Dr. joins the program to discuss the evolution of NATO's maritime command and control and the future for the Standing Naval Force. Dr. Tallis is a naval analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, where he is a senior research scientist in the Operations Evaluation Group. He has embedded as an analyst with Carrier Strike Group Eight and most recently with U.S. Sixth Fleet. This episode was edited and produced by Nathan Miller. EPISODE NOTES Links 1. "by Dr. Joshua Tallis, War on the Rocks, December 15, 2022.
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Better Metrics for Better Analyses
01/18/2023
Better Metrics for Better Analyses
What do search engine optimization, airline schedules and standardized testing have in common? They are all vulnerable to Goodhart’s law, the idea that when a metric becomes a target it ceases to be a good metric. In this episode Michael Stumborg and Timothy Blasius join John to discuss their report, “Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis.” Michael Stumborg is a Principal Research Scientist with CNA’s . Timothy Blasius is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s . : Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis : Lying to Ourselves: Dishonesty in the Army Profession
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Rebroadcast: Center for Naval Analyses Year in Review
01/04/2023
Rebroadcast: Center for Naval Analyses Year in Review
For the past 80 years, the Center for Naval Analyses has been the Navy’s partner and an essential resource for agencies across the federal government. In this episode, Executive Vice President of the Center for Naval Analyses, Andrew Mara sits down to discuss the Center’s accomplishments over the past fiscal year and where the organization is headed in the coming one.
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An Unprecedented Challenge to Xi Jinping
12/07/2022
An Unprecedented Challenge to Xi Jinping
On November 28, thousands of people across China took to the streets to protest the country’s ‘zero-COVID policies and censorship and to call for democracy. These demonstrations were an unprecedented show of dissent against the government in the era of Xi Jinping. How has the government responded to these uprisings, and how will they affect Beijing’s COVID strategy going forward? To answer these questions and , analysts from CNA’s , join the podcast. Heidi Holz is a Research Scientist in the CNA China Studies Program. Her research interests include China's media environment, Chinese military doctrine and operations, as well as U.S.-China military-to-military relations. Josiah Case is a Research Analyst in CNA's China Studies Program. His research at CNA has focused on PRC media and Beijing's global activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. : Bejing's Zero-COVID Dilemma : Telling China's COVID-19 Story Well
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THE 20TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: FOREIGN POLICY, TECHNOLOGY AND MILITARY DIMENSIONS
11/24/2022
THE 20TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: FOREIGN POLICY, TECHNOLOGY AND MILITARY DIMENSIONS
Video Link to this Podcast: THE 20TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: FOREIGN POLICY, TECHNOLOGY AND MILITARY DIMENSIONS A SITUATION SPOTLIGHT Part of CNA’s National Security Seminars series November 17, 2022 10:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST Featuring: Dr. David Finkelstein, Vice President, CNA and Director, China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division, CNA (https://www.cna.org/about-us/leadership/center-for-naval-analyses/david-finkelstein.xml) Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick (https://www.cna.org/experts/Wishnick_E.xml), Senior Research Scientist, China Studies Program (https://www.cna.org/centers-and-divisions/cna/cip/china-studies), CNA, and Senior Research Scholar, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University Dr. April Herlevi (https://www.cna.org/experts/Herlevi_A.xml) Senior Research Scientist, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program (https://www.cna.org/centers-and-divisions/cna/cip/indo-pacific-security-affairs), CNA For a recent analysis of the CCP Congress report see our InDepth blog posts by David Finkelstein and Brian Waidelich.
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The Iran Protests and Crackdown
11/09/2022
The Iran Protests and Crackdown
Analysis of the impact of the women-led protests since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. Is this a new Iranian Revolution led by women? Featuring: , Principal Research Scientist, , CNA Nazee Moinian, Non-Resident Scholar, Iran Program, Middle East Institute Moderated by: , Director, , CNA With Introductions by: , Vice President/Director, Institute for Public Research, CNA A Virtual Seminar by CNA’s Inclusive National Security & National Security Seminar Series October 25, 2022. Full Event:
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China, the U.S. and the Pacific Islands
10/26/2022
China, the U.S. and the Pacific Islands
The Pacific Islands region is a massive and diverse region, and one with strategic value to both the United States and China. What challenges do the people of the Pacific Island Countries face and how can they navigate strategic competition between the great powers. and Chris Cairns from CNA’s , sit down to discuss the latest from the Pacific Islands, and how China and the United States are engaged in the region. Further Reading : Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA : Mapping the Information Environment in the Pacific Island Countries : PRC Vessels Detained for Illegal Fishing in Vanuatu EEZ : China and the Solomon Islands: Drivers of Security Cooperation" : Pacific Connectivity and Tonga's Volcanic Eruption : Tonga Aid
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Brazil's Election: Bolsonaro vs. Lula
10/12/2022
Brazil's Election: Bolsonaro vs. Lula
Brazil is currently amid a contentious presidential election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Bolsonaro has consistently claimed that Brazil's election system is vulnerable to fraud, sparking fears that the peaceful transition of power could be threatened. , from CNA’s , joins the show to discuss the Brazilian election, the threat to democracy in the country and what this could mean for U.S. interests in South America.
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Center for Naval Analyses Year in Review
09/28/2022
Center for Naval Analyses Year in Review
For the past 80 years, the Center for Naval Analyses has been the Navy’s partner and an essential resource for agencies across the federal government. In this episode, Executive Vice President of the Center for Naval Analyses, Andrew Mara sits down to discuss the Center’s accomplishments over the past fiscal year and where the organization is headed in the coming one.
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Afghanistan: The Taliban, ISIS-K and Al Qaeda
09/14/2022
Afghanistan: The Taliban, ISIS-K and Al Qaeda
It’s been just over a year since the Taliban seized control of Kabul and established themselves as the government of Afghanistan. What has changed in Afghanistan in that time and what is the status of the major factions in the country? CNA’s Jonathan Schroden is joined by three experts on militant groups in Afghanistan, they discuss the status of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS-K in Afghanistan and the relationships between these groups. is the director of CNA’s . Twitter: is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at University. Previously she worked at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Twitter: is a senior expert in the Asia Center at USIP. His research interests include the international relations of South Asia, U.S. counterterrorism policy and political violence — with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Twitter: is a senior expert on Afghanistan for the U.S. Institute of Peace. He joined after serving as the senior analyst on Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group, where he published in-depth reports and analytical commentary on the country’s conflict and efforts to initiate a peaceful settlement. Twitter:
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What's Next for Sri Lanka?
08/31/2022
What's Next for Sri Lanka?
In July, the eyes of the world were fixed on Sri Lanka, when protesters stormed the Presidential Palace, demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. But while the headlines have since faded, the story is far from over. In this episode of CNA Talks, Nilanthi Samaranayake stops by to fill us in on what has happened in Sri Lanka since the protests and how the new President can address the crisis. () directs CNA's Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, her recent analysis of Sri Lanka has been published in Newsweek and Lawfare. Further Reading : China's Not to Blame for All of Sri Lanka's Woes : How Has Sri Lanka’s Crisis Impacted Indian Ocean Security?
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The Race for Autonomy: David Broyles on Getting Autonomy to Work for Defense
08/18/2022
The Race for Autonomy: David Broyles on Getting Autonomy to Work for Defense
This content was originally published on BMNT's YouTube Channel. You can find the original video . In this follow-up conversation to BMNT’s June panel "The Race for Autonomy: Navigating a New Battlefield," A'ndre Gonawela talks to Dr. David Broyles, Research Program Director at the Center for Naval Analysis and co-host of "AI with AI", on the challenges facing the Department of Defense when it comes to developing and leveraging autonomous systems and capabilities. Dr. Broyles digs into why he (like our prior panelists) believes the state of autonomy today is ‘brittle’, and why the end goal for many is ‘general AI’ – the ability for artificial intelligence to behave and adapt like human intelligence can. We discuss Dr. Broyles’ belief that an ‘AI Winter’ may be approaching, where momentum in the development of systems is slowed or even halted. We then dig into where the Department of Defense is on the racetrack, dissecting the lingering confusion that underlies the differences between unmanned systems and autonomous systems, and how we can better equip DoD leaders in understanding how autonomous systems can operate. Dr. Broyles highlights opportunities to build trust in autonomous systems with the warfighter, in addition to addressing the edge cases and ‘fat tails’ that can impede the success of autonomous vehicles. You can read about our first panel here: Notes from Episode General consensus of state of autonomy is that it is brittle, and still in infancy when it comes to DoD Bigger debate in AI community – end state is general AI, equivalent to human intelligence, adaptable to environment, and process things like a human can. What are the tools to go about this? Two camps that disagree with each other: Neural network reward: Can employ larger neural networks, dump more data, put more processing power, and have reward schemes. Symbolic logic camps – need ways to encode information in symbols that machines can manipulate at higher levels of aggregation. Still trying to figure out the things we really need to make these things work and get rid of the bugs. AI Winter? There have been periods where the momentum in AI development stopped – last one in early 2000s, influenced by availability of graphical processing capabilities (large computational power being dumped on the problem) Are we coming to the limits of the tools and capabilities we’ve developed? Margins of incremental improvements are diminishing. AVs are a bellwether of progress – if progress isn’t delivered in tangible ways, market could lose interest, meaning less financial investment. AI Summer? Alexnet winning image recognition competition in 2014 was first real success of neural networks, motivated community at large, many developments between 2014 through 2019. People were trying many different tools. Where’s DOD with developing/leveraging autonomous systems? It’s hard to pinpoint where they are on the racetrack. Confusion between unmanned and autonomous systems – can be communicated unclearly, sometimes unmanned systems are mistakenly attributed as autonomous when they aren’t. First major step is for DoD to employ more unmanned systems – it’s been slow, but CNO actually incorporating uncrewed systems into their force structure direction is a significant step. Lots of little things here and there are going on but there’s nothing being coordinate in a big way. CDAO (Chief Digital AI Office, former JAIC), is trying to play a role here but there’s more ways in which they can step in. Ensuring trust for warfighters? You can either not have enough trust, or you can overtrust, and the latter gets less attention – the example here is Tesla’s autopilot system being overtrusted and then getting involved in deadly crashes. Need to get autonomous systems into the hands of the warfighters – biggest priority. Need to communicate the capabilities better to an operator, need to ensure that the operator can have other cues and/or ways of interacting with the system. Do our DoD leaders understand how autonomous systems can be used/leveraged and how they work? Can we work to educate them quickly? Area of high concern, and cyber discussions are indicative of the difficulties that could be faced as senior leaders have taken some time to embrace and understand the technologies. Very small number of senior leaders who have a good idea of what’s going on, and larger number with staff who know what they’re talking about, but there’s issues with proposals promising to develop tech that simply won’t happen. People in approval chain may not understand that these things won’t work Arming senior leaders with the key questions, but that’s a bandaid – we need more people with basic understandings of how these technologies work. This does not necessarily mean we hire computer scientists, but DoD can work internally to raise the floor on level of understanding – and these areas are beginning to slowly come up to speed. Addressing edge cases? Fat tails – distribution of things that you may run into, most of the stuff is going to fall into a general bin, but there’ll be edge cases that’ll extend. What happens if a plastic bag runs into a screen of an AV? Uber and others couldn’t just throw hundreds or millions of hours of driving data to fix this. Solution is General AI – we can’t throw fat tail problems into same bucket. Running simulations still runs into the same problem, and throwing info won’t solve it. There really is no good answer, there’s not been a good articulation of the answer. We’re trying to minimize the edge cases as best we can. However, alternatives like smart roads and sensors can provide added information to help prevent accidents or minimize disruptions in environment. Experimentation – What’s Commercial doing that DoD is not doing? Mechanics around how to do things are the primary thing that can hinder experimentation. There’s a strange acquisition ecosystem that isn’t always friendly to innovative ideas going through standard program office processes. Policy Lagging Behind on Autonomous Systems? There are some new technologies falling under clear regulation – and as long as it doesn’t cause any other problem, but because these technologies are so wide ranging they can cause issues. You can forecast some of these things, but there’s always an unexpected bit. Is there a general philosophy on how to handle this? There’ll always be questions on privacy and safety. Is DoD adequately reaching out to small businesses? It is happening, but biggest barrier (in his view) is DoD contracting and being able to decipher postings, requirements, forms, and etc. Need to take a quantitative approach to assessing effectiveness of this.
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