The Dismal Science
Releasing weekly episodes during the coronavirus crisis to bring you the latest on the economic impact of the pandemic.
info_outline 97 - We'll always have Paris 11/05/2021
97 - We'll always have Paris We go back to the Paris Agreement and ask if its vision, particularly restraining warming to less than 2 degrees, can be met at COP26 and beyond. Plus, central banks begin the task of unwinding unconventional pandemic support programs.
info_outline 93 - All brakes no gas 10/10/2021
93 - All brakes no gas Gas shortages are leading to spiraling energy prices across the world. Are we headed for another era of stagflation? Plus, APRA tries to cool the housing market, another record trade surplus for Australia, and should the US mint a trillion dollar coin?
info_outline 92 - Evergrande Illusion 09/24/2021
92 - Evergrande Illusion "Everything Evergrande owns belongs to the Party and the Chinese people," Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan once said. Will the Chinese people now own the crashing property company's $300bn of debt or is China headed for a financial crisis? Plus, housing affordability, monetary tapering and vaccinating the world. This is a long one but we're taking next week off so listen at your leisure.
info_outline 91 - Wait, survive and see 09/19/2021
91 - Wait, survive and see Large parts of the economy are in 'wait, survive and see' mode, according to RBA governor Philip Lowe. We look at the latest deceptive unemployment data, the OECD's Australian economy fan fiction for a post-pandemic world, house prices and urban planning, as well as US inflation, the softening in the Chinese economy and central banks' role in fighting climate change. It's a big one!
info_outline 90 - The stammer and the chance 09/09/2021
90 - The stammer and the chance The RBA is expecting the economy to bounce back in December but should the halting recovery of other more open economies around the world be tempering our optimism? Plus, is the China property bubble about to burst?
info_outline 89 - Mistakes were made 09/05/2021
89 - Mistakes were made The latest lockdowns have caused widespread job losses and decimated consumer demand. Were economic policymakers inadequately prepared for the downside risks of a new COVID strain? Plus, Q2 GDP, takeaways from this year's Jackson Hole conference, and the Taliban economy.
info_outline 85 - Fear, uncertainty and Doherty 08/06/2021
85 - Fear, uncertainty and Doherty Guided by the Doherty Institute modelling, National Cabinet has outlined the path out, but much is still uncertain. Plus, can cash incentives work for vaccinations and the rise of buy now pay later. Apologies for the audio on this one, we had some technical difficulties.
info_outline 82 - Home and away 07/16/2021
82 - Home and away Starting local then going global, we talk about the economic cost of the latest lockdowns before doing some virtual economic tourism taking in the G20 finance conference in Venice, climate change, the latest on global inflation and the value of mRNA vaccines.
info_outline 80 - Delta blues 07/01/2021
80 - Delta blues With almost half of Australia's population plunged back into lockdown as the Delta variant spreads, do we need to revise the rosy forecasts from earlier in the year for pandemic recovery? Plus, a job vacancy boom, house prices keep going and European tourism.
info_outline 79 - Ready for the four 06/18/2021
79 - Ready for the four Australia's unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%, below the pre-pandemic level, and approaching a 'four in front of it', the target level for the government. So what's next for policy and will wage growth follow? Plus, inflation comes roaring back in the US and an Australia-UK free trade deal.
info_outline 78 - Cheeky Beveridge 06/11/2021
78 - Cheeky Beveridge Job vacancies are at an all-time high, yet there is still slack in the labour market. Is the economy getting worse at matching workers to jobs? Plus, confidence slips back, the G7 agrees to a global minimum tax and is Biden's infrastructure package a stimulus bridge too far.
info_outline 77 - Jabs and growth 06/04/2021
77 - Jabs and growth Australia's economy is now larger than it was pre-pandemic but the slow rollout of the vaccine continues to threaten the recovery. We dig into the latest GDP numbers and ask if we need more incentives for people to get jabbed. Plus, house prices, the Victorian lockdown and the RBA says watch this space.
info_outline 76 - Short supply 05/28/2021
76 - Short supply Global supply chains are breaking down with not enough capacity to meet demand for everything from semiconductors to furniture. What is going on and will it lead to an outbreak in inflation? Plus, the IMF's plan to end the COVID-19 pandemic.
info_outline 74 - Vive la révolution 05/14/2021
74 - Vive la révolution This year's budget embeds the fiscal revolution that began last year. We look at what's in this big spending budget and whether the debt is sustainable. Plus, the RBA's latest forecasts and US jobs disappoint. Apologies for Ivan's awful audio this week - we had some technical difficulties recording remotely.
info_outline 71 - Money computer go brrr 04/23/2021
71 - Money computer go brrr Digital money is hot and central bankers want in. What is a central bank digital currency, how would it work and how would it be different from cryptocurrencies? Plus, more good news on the jobs front and what the European Super League proposal says about the global economy.
info_outline 70 - Vax on? Vax off 04/16/2021
70 - Vax on? Vax off The vaccine rollout troubles continue as the government abandons its target. Is it time to downgrade forecasts? Will Australia be cut off from the world? And are we getting our risk calculus wrong? Plus, the latest confidence and jobs numbers.