The Dismal Science

Join the AICD’s Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell and Head of Content Ivan Ah Sam for this weekly deep dive into all the economic news. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered. Stay up-to-date on the economic forces shaping the world.

191 - Chart with decreasing yen emoji 05/09/2024

191 - Chart with decreasing yen emoji The yen has plunged to a 34 year low requiring the Bank of Japan to spend billions to prop it up. Why are hedge funds attacking the yen? Plus, we preview the budget, higher for longer interest rates in the US and a weak retail sales number. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/31208712

190 - A Cook's tour 05/01/2024

190 - A Cook's tour A Cook's tour of the global economy: we take in the European malaise, the Trump spectre over the US, the China shock 2.0, and a resurgence in migration. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/31067008

189 - Not out of the woods 04/26/2024

189 - Not out of the woods Inflation remains stubborn in Australia, running hotter in the March quarter than economists expected. Is there now a chance that the next rate move might be up again rather than down? Plus, a slight softening in the jobs market and just how much does negative gearing impact property prices? /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30993998

188 - Industrial chic 04/16/2024

188 - Industrial chic Industrial policy is making a comeback globally and Australia wants in on the action. Boosting supply chain resilience, accelerating the net zero transition, and mitigating geostrategic risk are touted as key benefits. But does it stack up economically? Plus, new stricter merger rules and more mixed confidence results. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30842938

187 - Lost in the supermarket 04/11/2024

187 - Lost in the supermarket A review into the supermarket code of conduct landed this week, raising fresh questions about competition. Can we raise prices for suppliers, while also lowering prices for consumers? Would increasing competition lead to more innovation? Or has the supermarket experience improved despite the lack of competition? Plus, strong US jobs numbers and an infleciton point in the AICD's Director Sentiment Index. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30775118

186 - Statistical error 04/05/2024

186 - Statistical error Questioning the official labour market data used to be the preserve of conspiracy theorists, but the surveys across the globe have been plagued by problems recently. Can we continue to trust these key economic indicators? Plus, dovish noises from the Reserve Bank on interest rates, as inflation continues to ease, though house prices march on. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30689688

185 - Productivity puzzle (Live at the AGS) 03/30/2024

185 - Productivity puzzle (Live at the AGS) Live at last week's Australian Governance Summit, we asked what could be done about Australia's languishing productivity: can policy make a difference? Will AI save us? Could it be as simple as building more houses? Plus, a first rate cut might be nearing and an extraordinary plunge in the jobless rate. Regular listeners will notice some snazzy new cover art this week. Thanks to our fantastic designer Jana Clark and photographer Graham Jepson for the fresh look. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30603443

184 - Per capita pain 03/13/2024

184 - Per capita pain Australia's GDP per capital continues to go backwards as growth slows to snail's pace. Plus, we look ahead to next week's RBA meeting, Powell hints interest rate cuts might be imminent in the US and more Swiftonomics. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30349593

183 - Narrowing path 03/07/2024

183 - Narrowing path Inflation is falling but so is growth, is the path to a soft landing for Australia narrowing still? Plus, a deal for what it's worth at the WTO and the UK economy as Willy Wonka experience. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30310903

182 - Trade daze 02/29/2024

182 - Trade daze The World Trade Organisation met last week. Not that you'd know it. Is the dream of global trade done? Plus, with real wages finally growing, could the RBA really raise rates again? /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30177783

181 - Bumpy road 02/18/2024

181 - Bumpy road An uptick in US inflation shows the path back down might not be smooth, plus back home the labour market cools, hyperinflation in Argentina, and is Bitcoin back? /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/30006278

180 - Speak now 02/11/2024

180 - Speak now After the new look RBA meeting, the governor now holds a media conference where she addressed the future path of interest rates, as well as Taylor Swift's effect on inflation. Plus, China acts to backstop its sagging equity markets. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/29896138

179 - This one's optimistic 02/04/2024

179 - This one's optimistic Inflation is moderating in Australia and the IMF says the global economy is on "the final descent toward a soft landing". 2024 might be looking up. Plus, what to expect from next week's new look RBA meeting. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/29788133

178 - Stage 3 and me 01/27/2024

178 - Stage 3 and me We look at the government's changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. How will this affect the distribution and will they be inflationary? Plus, business confidence plunges and the IMF warns against cutting rates any time soon. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/29683313

177 - Twenty twenty more 01/19/2024

177 - Twenty twenty more Happy New Year listeners! Big ep to get us rolling: Consumer confidence sliding, signs of slackening in the jobs market and weaker inflation point to the RBA holding in February, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez, more weak numbers from China, Mark's apocalyptic beach reading, and the housing market marches on. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/29556308

176 - A merry little quizmas 12/24/2023

176 - A merry little quizmas It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's forecasts and gaze into the crystal ball to see what's ahead in 2024. Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more epsiodes. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/29217113

175 - Polyphonic spree 12/15/2023

175 - Polyphonic spree The RBA will now speak with multiple voices with all board members expected to speak to the public. Will this lead to greater transparency or muddy the waters further? Plus, more bumper jobs growth, the MYEFO reveals another jump in tax receipts, Milei takes his razor to Argentine spending and another COP climate conference goes by. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/29117533

174 - Hitting the wall 12/08/2023

174 - Hitting the wall "Australia's economy hit the wall in the September quarter," according to Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan. Disposable incomes have declined steeply and consumer spending is weak. Have the rate cuts done their job now? Could the next move be down rather than up? Plus, Venezualan revanchism and Guyana's oil and gas boom. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28982973

173 - Mileinarianism 11/24/2023

173 - Mileinarianism Self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei has won the Argentine presidential election. Do desperate times call for desperate measures as Argentina looks to escape hyperinflation? Plus, the RBA board worries about its credibility and the OpenAI board worries about the future of humanity. Ivan's had another audio fail this week. Apologies. We know you come for Mark anyway. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28777933

172 - Raise you 11/17/2023

172 - Raise you The third quarter saw wages rise at a record rate in Australia and despite a slight increase in headline unemployment, the labour market is still tight. What's a central bank to do? Plus, are we seeing a soft landing in the US? Apologies for the audio on this one, a few technical issues. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28684728

171 - Higher, longer, faster, stronger? 11/12/2023

171 - Higher, longer, faster, stronger? With another rate rise last week and no easing in sight, Australia seems to have joined the higher for longer world. Are 'higher for longer' interest rates actually a sign of optimism about future growth? Or has excessive government debt globally pushed up rates? Plus, director sentiment falls again and a China growth surprise. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28596828

170 - Here we go again 10/31/2023

170 - Here we go again The signs are pointing to another rate rise next week, the first on Michele Bullock's watch, as inflation proves more stubborn than expected. Plus, strong retail sales figures and the IMF says it's time for governments around the world to tighten their belts. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28471538

169 - Geo noir 10/19/2023

169 - Geo noir With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world has become a more dangerous place. How should boards be thinking through the fracturing global order and geopolitical risk? Plus, the RBA sounds a hawkish note and a mixed jobs report. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28370978

168 - Goldin hour 10/15/2023

168 - Goldin hour We look at the wide-ranging work of Caludia Goldin, this year's recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics specifically "for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes”. Plus, we catch up on Michele Bullock's first meeting as RBA governor and what the waning of Pax Americana might mean for the global economy. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28319612

167 - The red and the white 09/29/2023

167 - The red and the white A mixed bag this week: the government's jobs white paper, another inflation spike, wilting retail sales and a glut in red wine. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28176131

166 - Proceed carefully 09/22/2023

166 - Proceed carefully Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to proceed carefully with any future changes to interest rats in the US. Does this mean we're now in a "higher for longer" world? Plus, oil market dynamics and NZ emerges from recession or does it? /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28110461

165 - Slow Gurner 09/17/2023

165 - Slow Gurner Colourful property developer Tim Gurner caused an outcry calling for the unemployment rate to rise, saying "we need to see pain in the economy". How different is his message from the RBA's official line? Plus, the latest confidence numbers, a farewell speech from Lowe, a getting to know you speech from the incoming productivity commissioner, and the obesity wonder drug Ozempic and Danish GDP. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/28058346

164 - Lowe's last stand 09/08/2023

164 - Lowe's last stand Governor Lowe's last RBA meeting and rates are on hold. Is the next move of the new era down? Plus, Australia enters a 'per capita recession' and the global solar boom. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/27975009

163 - The consolation of philosophy 09/01/2023

163 - The consolation of philosophy Central bankers turned philosophical at last week's annual Jackson Hole conference as they contemplated the mistakes they have made over the last two years. Plus, the incoming Reserve Bank governor talks climate change, inflation continues to come down and the stifling effect of high interest rates on innovation. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/27910962

162 - Talkin bout intergeneration 08/25/2023

162 - Talkin bout intergeneration Australia's growth will slow and its population age over the next forty years, putting pressure on the budget and more generally our standard of living, according to the government's latest Intergenerational Report. What can we do to jolt Australia out of this growth and productivity malaise? Plus, BRICS talk dedollarisation, Argentina talks dollarisation, and the case for bringing back the proper office. /episode/index/show/dismalscience/id/27846828

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