Day Trading Academy Podcast
With a combined 90 years of experience in the markets. Day Trading Academy's podcast will discuss topics relating to investing, learning how to trade, the markets, and much more. Looking forward to sharing this wonderful world of finance, investing, and business with everyone.
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Trump/Musk give $5,000 check Doge savings, Egg Prices All Time High, Stocks tank (Recap ep304)
02/23/2025
Trump/Musk give $5,000 check Doge savings, Egg Prices All Time High, Stocks tank (Recap ep304)
This week, Marcello talks about how Trump and Elon Musk are considering sending $5,000 checks to U.S. taxpayers, thanks to savings detected by DOGE in the government's payment system. Meanwhile, the stock market suffered its worst day of 2025, losing nearly $1 trillion. In the food sector, egg prices hit a new all-time high in the U.S. U.S. markets closed the week with sharp declines. Trump is considering imposing tariffs of 25% or more on cars, semiconductors, and medicines, negatively impacting those sectors. Microsoft, on the other hand, rose 1.25% after unveiling its first-ever quantum computing chip. Walmart caused uncertainty with a weaker-than-expected sales forecast. On Friday, the market lost $927 billion, with the Dow dropping 1.69% to 43,428.02 points, and the S&P 500 falling 1.71% to 6,013.13. The Nasdaq suffered the biggest hit, down 2.20%. In international markets, European stocks had mixed results: London fell 0.84%, Germany dropped 1.01%, and Paris was down 0.29%. Russia, however, gained 3.08%. In Latin America, Mexico’s stock exchange fell 0.63%, while Colombia surged 5.05%. In Asia, Hong Kong led with a 3.79% gain, while Japan dropped 0.96%. Bitcoin dropped 0.95%, trading at $96,706, though Coinbase shares rose 3% after the SEC dropped an enforcement action against the company. In commodities, gold hit a new record high of $2,954 per ounce, while silver rose 0.96%. Oil, on the other hand, dropped to a two-month low, with WTI crude at $70.40 and Brent at $74.43. Egg prices in the U.S. hit an all-time high of $4.95 per dozen, reflecting supply chain issues. In Guyana, the government is set to sign an oil production-sharing agreement with TotalEnergies, with the country on track to produce 940,000 barrels per day this year—nearly 1% of global supply. In finance, New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates by 0.50% to 3.75%. MercadoLibre surged 7.09% after reporting better-than-expected revenue. Japan's economy grew 2.8% in the last quarter, exceeding expectations, while Mexico saw its first economic contraction in over three years. In political news, Trump accused China of exerting influence over the Panama Canal, while Finland and Sweden are investigating another sabotage incident involving undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed that a Pentagon study found flu vaccines increase the likelihood of illness by 4.4 times. Yale researchers identified a "post-vaccination syndrome" linked to mRNA Covid shots, causing brain fog, dizziness, tinnitus, and exercise intolerance. Elon Musk and Trump are discussing sending $5,000 checks to taxpayers using savings detected in the government's payment system, which DOGE claims could total $522 billion in fraud—equivalent to one-third of all Social Security spending. In corporate news, Tesla climbed 1.82% after reporting better-than-expected results. Shake Shack surged 11.13% on strong sales numbers. Southwest Airlines will cut 15% of its corporate workforce, while Rivian fell 4.70% after issuing a lower-than-expected delivery forecast. In international news, power outages are becoming a daily reality in Cuba, with some areas going without electricity for over 20 hours. The government has ordered two-day school closures and is urging reduced energy consumption. And in interesting facts, new evidence in Romania suggests hominins reached Eurasia 2 million years ago—200,000 years earlier than previously thought.
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Elon Musk offers buy OpenAI, Ukraine war over?, Inflation higher than expected (Recap ep303)
02/16/2025
Elon Musk offers buy OpenAI, Ukraine war over?, Inflation higher than expected (Recap ep303)
This week, Marcello talks about a group led by Elon Musk offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit controlling OpenAI, though Sam Altman turned down the bid and countered with an offer to buy Twitter for $9 billion. Inflation came in higher than expected at 3%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold off on interest rate cuts for now. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has been in talks with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, raising questions about whether the war in Ukraine could soon come to an end. U.S. President Trump's trade advisers were finalizing plans on Wednesday, for the reciprocal tariffs the U.S. President has vowed to impose on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports, increasing fears of a widening global trade war & threatening to add to already virulent U.S. inflation. Trade ministers of the 27-country European Union were due to meet by video conference to determine their response after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said tariff moves against the bloc won’t go unanswered. U.S. President Trump discussed the war in Ukraine on Wednesday in phone calls with Russian President Putin & Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, the new U.S. president's 1st major step towards diplomacy, over a war he has promised to end. Earlier on Wednesday, Trump's Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, said a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders borders was unrealistic & the U.S. administration did not see NATO membership for Ukraine as part of a solution to the war. Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine & has demanded Ukraine cede even more territory & be rendered permanently neutral, under any peace deal. Russia may be forced to throttle back its oil output in the coming months as U.S. sanctions hamper its access to tankers to sail to Asia & Ukrainian drone attacks hamper its refineries. The U.S. imposed sanctions last month that targeted 180 tankers. There is a growing glut of crude in Russia due to falling exports & reduced refining production which can only be addressed by lowering output, at present 9M barrels a day. Russia has little storage capacity & Ukraine has attacked some of these facilities with drones in recent weeks, to improve its bargaining position amid expectations that U.S. President Trump will press Russian leader Putin to negotiate an end to the war. Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by +4.4% in 2024, marking its fastest growth since 2021, government data indicated early Friday.The economy had expanded by only +1.8% in 2023. For Q4 alone, Singapore’s GDP grew +5% year on year, higher than the +4.7% forecast by analysts, but lower than the +5.7% expansion seen in the previous quarter. The +5% growth figure also surpassed advance estimates of +4.3% announced on Jan. 2. The Fed reported on Friday that U.S. industrial output had strong gains for a 2nd consecutive month, rising +0.5% in January. The gain was above expectations of a +0.3% rise & comes after a strong +1% gain in Dec. Economists had expected industrial production to rise by +0.3% compared to the 0.9% advance originally reported for the previous month. The bigger than expected increase by industrial production reflected a 7.2% spike by utilities output, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating. Meanwhile, the Fed said mining output slumped by 1.2% & manufacturing output edged down by -0.1% amid a 5.2% plunge by motor vehicles & parts production. The gold market was seeing some renewed volatility on Friday & headed lower, while weak U.S. consumption data highlights growing risks for the U.S. economy. The gold market was already seeing some selling pressure ahead of the report & profit-taking picked up momentum in the initial reaction.
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US AID govt Corruption, Trump Tariff War Pause, Gold Record Highs (Recap ep302)
02/09/2025
US AID govt Corruption, Trump Tariff War Pause, Gold Record Highs (Recap ep302)
This week, Marcello talks about how U.S. aid money is once again under scrutiny, with growing concerns over corruption and mismanagement. Meanwhile, Trump hit the brakes on his trade war (at least for now) pausing new tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which sent markets swinging. And gold? It just smashed through record highs, climbing past $2,900 an ounce as investors scramble for safe-haven assets. Markets had a wild start to the week after Trump’s tariff threats. The Dow slid 0.99% to 44,303.40, the S&P 500 dropped 0.95% to 6,025.99, and the NASDAQ took the biggest hit, down 1.36% to 19,523.40. International markets were mixed, with Spain jumping 2.58% while Argentina’s Merval tanked 6.13%. Bitcoin also took a hit, sliding 5.9% to $96,161 as volatility ramped up again. Gold continued its run, gaining 2.13% to a new record high at $2,900, while silver was up 1.62% to $31.89. Oil prices, on the other hand, dropped, with U.S. WTI crude down 2.15% to $71.00 and Brent falling 2.81% to $74.66. In Argentina, dry weather is wreaking havoc on crops, forcing the country to slash its grain production forecasts. Over in Europe, defense spending hit 1.9% of GDP last year, up 30% from 2021, but Trump wants NATO allies to go even further, pushing for a 5% target—something no country, not even the U.S., currently meets. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing rates to 4.5% and hinting at more cuts ahead. In the U.S., factory activity expanded in January for the first time in over two years, but job creation wasn’t as strong as expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 143,000, well below December’s 307,000. China, never one to back down from a tech fight, launched an antitrust probe into Google. In the markets, PayPal got crushed, falling 13.17% after reporting slowing growth in card processing, while Expedia soared 17.27% on strong earnings. Spotify had a big week, jumping 13.24% after posting its first full year of profitability, with net income hitting $1.18 billion. On the other hand, Google missed revenue expectations and fell 7.29%, though Alphabet still announced plans to invest $75 billion in AI next year. China is stepping up its trade war, placing new export controls on rare earth metals crucial for electronics and military equipment. It also slapped a 10% tariff on electric trucks coming from the U.S., which could be bad news for Tesla’s Cybertruck in China. In Greece, hundreds of people swarmed the port in Santorini after a string of earthquakes shook the region. Meanwhile, Greenland’s ruling party is pushing for an independence vote after the next general election. And here’s something to keep an eye on: Earth’s oceans are heating up faster than ever. Back in the late ‘80s, ocean temps were rising by about 0.06°C per decade. Now, that number has jumped to 0.27°C, with 2023 and early 2024 breaking records for 450 straight days. El Niño played a role, but the trend is hard to ignore.
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Tariff Wars Begin, Planes Crashing Everywhere, Deepseek China AI War starts (Recap Ep301)
02/03/2025
Tariff Wars Begin, Planes Crashing Everywhere, Deepseek China AI War starts (Recap Ep301)
This week in the U.S. market, tech stocks tumbled as China’s DeepSeek AI model emerged as a major competitor, training at a fraction of the cost of U.S. rivals. Nvidia, which has dominated AI chip production, saw a staggering 17% drop. Markets also reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its recent stretch of interest rate cuts, signaling that further reductions may not be imminent. Additionally, former President Trump reignited trade war concerns by reiterating a 25% tariff on imports from both Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dipped below $100,000, marking its lowest level in 11 days before bouncing back slightly above $99,000. Analysts linked the drop to investor caution following the Chinese AI surge, which triggered a selloff in Western AI-related stocks. Despite this, Trump Media saw a 6.76% gain after its parent company announced an expansion into financial services, including potential crypto investments. Economic news painted a grim picture for Germany, as its GDP declined by 0.2% in the final quarter of the year, marking a second consecutive annual contraction for Europe’s largest economy. On the political front, the U.S. froze nearly all foreign aid, making exceptions only for emergency food assistance and military funding for Israel, Egypt, and Turkey. Additionally, Trump retaliated against Colombia for rejecting U.S. deportation flights, imposing an initial 25% tariff on Colombian imports, which will increase to 50% within a week. Further measures include a travel ban, immediate visa revocations for Colombian officials, and financial sanctions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In South Korea, former President Yoon Suk Yeol was indicted on charges of leading an insurrection after his short-lived martial law declaration in December, which sought to control media and ban political activity. Corporate developments included Nvidia’s worst trading day since March 2020, with shares plummeting 16.97% to $118.42 following weaker-than-expected revenue of $9.4 billion. UPS also suffered its worst session ever, with shares plunging 14.11% after announcing a revised agreement with Amazon that will reduce shipping volume by over 50% in the second half of 2026. Toyota remained the world's top-selling automaker for the fifth consecutive year, selling 10.8 million vehicles in 2024, while Volkswagen reported a 2.3% decline in sales, falling to just over 9 million units. In technology news, Chinese startup DeepSeek surged to become the top-rated free app on Apple’s U.S. App Store, with its AI model surpassing Stability AI and OpenAI’s models in image generation benchmarks. In a fascinating scientific revelation, researchers at Utrecht University discovered two colossal "islands" hidden deep within Earth’s mantle, each the size of a continent. These regions, estimated to be at least 500 million years old, are significantly hotter than their surroundings and challenge long-standing theories about mantle convection. Rather than a rapidly flowing and well-mixed interior, this discovery suggests that Earth's mantle has less movement than previously thought, reshaping our understanding of the planet's inner dynamics. . At the end of the last century, an analysis of these oscillations showed the existence of 2 subsurface ‘super-continents’: one under Africa & the other one under the Pacific Ocean, both hidden over 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) below the Earth’s surface. These 2 large islands are surrounded by a graveyard of tectonic plates which have been transported there by a process called ‘subduction’, where 1 tectonic plate dives below another plate & sinks all the way from the Earth’s surface down to a depth of near 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles).
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New Year, New President, New Trump Meme Coin (Recap ep300)
01/26/2025
New Year, New President, New Trump Meme Coin (Recap ep300)
In today's recap, Marcello talks about the dawn of a new year bringing big changes, with a new president in office and the launch of a Trump-themed cryptocurrency making waves in the markets. The newly created Trump Meme Coin has skyrocketed to nearly $12 billion in market value, while Melania Trump’s own crypto project has added to the buzz with a $1.9 billion debut. Stay tuned as we dive into how these developments are shaping the start of the year. Cryptocurrencies tied to President Donald Trump made headlines this week with remarkable market activity. Trump's newly created cryptocurrency surged on Monday, reaching a market value of nearly $12 billion, while Bitcoin hit a record high of $109,333. Trump's coin has already become the 18th largest cryptocurrency, boasting a 24-hour trading volume of $52.5 billion. Adding to the excitement, Melania Trump launched her own cryptocurrency on Sunday, which debuted at $12.03 per token with a market capitalization of $1.9 billion. These developments highlight the growing influence of the Trump brand in the crypto space. The gold & silver market is in a pivotal moment as Trump's economic policies have revitalized & energized the landscape for precious metals. President Trump's aggressive trade policies generated investor interest particularly in gold because gold’s ability as a strategic asset to offset the effect of higher inflation. Trump's initial policy moves have been characterized by a series of bold executive actions, including proposed tariffs, immigration reforms & withdrawal from international agreements. These actions are creating ripple effects across financial markets, particularly in how investors perceive inflation hedges & safe-haven assets. The United States, the world's biggest donor, froze virtually all foreign aid on Friday, making exceptions only for emergency food, & military funding for Israel & Egypt as well as Turkey. The sweeping order appears to affect everything from development assistance to military aid, including to Ukraine, which received billions of dollars in weapons under U.S. President Trump's predecessor Joe Biden as it tries to repel a Russian invasion. Tuesday a record snowstorm hit Houston, New Orleans & many other towns & cities across the southern U.S., breaking snowfall records that have stood for +100 yrs. At least 9 people have died. Florida broke all-time snowfall record as a 'once-in-a-lifetime' storm blanketed the Gulf Coast. The storm delivered travel-snarling snow from Texas to the Carolinas & breaking records in many places. All-time snow records were set on the central Gulf Coast & all-time state snowfall records were breached in Louisiana & Florida. Estimates for total damage & economic loss from the snow, ice & extreme cold in the South is $14-$17B.
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Bitcoin hits $100,000, Record Highs Stocks, Syria falls (Recap ep299)
12/09/2024
Bitcoin hits $100,000, Record Highs Stocks, Syria falls (Recap ep299)
In today's recap, Marcello talks about Bitcoin surging past $100,000 for the first time, driven by optimism about President-elect Donald Trump creating a regulatory environment that supports cryptocurrencies. U.S. stock markets reached record highs this week as better than expected tech earnings boosted investor confidence, with companies highlighting the impact of artificial intelligence on their results. Meanwhile, Syria has officially fallen, and President Assad has been granted asylum in Russia. In response, Israel has launched strikes targeting military bases, defense systems, and government facilities, leaving critical infrastructure in ruins. Bitcoin rose above $100,000 for the 1st time on Thursday rising over 4% to over $103K, as the election of Republican Trump as president of the United States spurred expectations that his administration will create a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year & is up about 35% in the 4 weeks since Trump's sweeping election victory, which also saw a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers being elected to Congress. Stellantis, the world’s fourth-largest carmaker headquartered in the Netherlands, saw its shares tumble 6.29% on Monday to $12.37 following the unexpected resignation of CEO Carlos Tavares. The company cited "increasingly different views" between Tavares and the board of directors as the reason for his abrupt departure, which was accepted on Sunday and took effect immediately. Stellantis stock has faced a challenging year, down 20.80% over the past three months, 45.39% year-to-date, and 43.50% year-over-year, leaving the company with a market capitalization of $37.21 billion. The manufacturing sectors in both the EU and UK continued to show signs of weakness in November, reflecting broader economic challenges. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI highlighted an accelerated decline in new factory orders, production, purchasing activity, and inventories. Employment in the sector also suffered, posting its sharpest drop since August 2020, with Germany and Austria experiencing the most significant job losses. South Korean opposition lawmakers said on Thursday they would vote this weekend to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his botched attempt to impose martial law & police said they were investigating claims of treason against him & top ministers. Yoon's declaration of martial law late on Tuesday, sought to consolidate power, ban political activity & censor the media. It sparked outrage in the streets & concern among South Korea's international allies. The defense minister, who recommended the move, has resigned. Oil prices fell over -1% Friday & cemented weekly losses, as analysts projected a supply surplus next year on weak demand despite an OPEC+ decision to delay output hikes & extend deep production cuts to the end of 2026. A rising number oil & gas rigs deployed in the U.S. this week, pointing to rising production from the world's biggest crude producer, also pushed prices lower. Energy Services firm Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by 5 to 482 this week, highest level since mid-Oct, while gas rigs rose by 2 to 102, highest since early Nov, growing for the 1st time in 8 weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate January futures fell -1.61% at $67.20 per barrel.
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Coffee hit record highs, Stocks Best Month This Year, Germany says prepare for War (Recap ep298)
12/02/2024
Coffee hit record highs, Stocks Best Month This Year, Germany says prepare for War (Recap ep298)
In today's recap, Marcello talks about coffee prices hitting their highest levels since 1977, driven by record-breaking droughts in Brazil and Vietnam. U.S. stock markets had their best month of the year in November, capped by a Thanksgiving holiday break. Meanwhile, Germany has made headlines with a stark warning to corporations to "prepare for war," adding a dramatic geopolitical twist to an already eventful week. U.S. stock markets posted their biggest monthly gains this year in November, as chip stocks rallied on Friday, after it was reported that the outgoing Biden administration was considering additional barriers on the sale of semiconductor equipment to China, that weren’t as strong as previously expected. The S&P 500 & Dow rose modestly to close at records in a holiday-shortened session. Dow +0.42% (+188.59) at 44,910.65, at a new intraday high. S&P 500 +0.56% (+33.64) at 6,032.38, a new all time high. NASDAQ +0.83% (+157.69) at 19,218.17. India’s economy is forecast to expand by +6.5% in its 2nd fiscal quarter, according to economists. Should the figure prove accurate, the country would see its slowest year-on-year quarterly growth since the quarter ended March 2023. India’s economy had expanded by +6.7% in the 1st fiscal quarter. The +6.5% estimate is below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of +7% made in October. Agriculture makes up over +18% of India’s GDP. The U.S. PC maker Dell Technologies shares -12.25% on Wednesday at $124.30, after the firm reported a revenue miss & forecast Q4 revenue & earnings below analyst expectations. Dell came in at $24.37B in revenue for the quarter, a/y/y increase of +9.5%. EPS of $2.15 vs $1.88 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of -0.79% over the analyst estimate of $24.56B. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.06, a surprise hike +4.37%. Before Tuesday evening’s earnings report, investors saw the firm as one of the most important companies selling tools & systems for artificial intelligence developers.
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New Trump Era, Entire United States in drought, Bitcoin explodes (Recap ep297)
11/18/2024
New Trump Era, Entire United States in drought, Bitcoin explodes (Recap ep297)
In today's Recap, Marcello talks about how Donald Trump has returned to the White House, ushering in a new era as Republicans secure control of both the Senate and House. His early actions include accepting a call from Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, while Qatar orders Hamas officials to leave the country. Meanwhile, the United States faces an unprecedented drought crisis, impacting nearly all states, over 150 million people, and 318 million acres of crops after a record-breaking summer heatwave. On a brighter note, Bitcoin has exploded to a historic high of $93,445, surpassing silver to become the world’s 8th largest asset. Republicans have finally won enough seats to control the U.S. House of Representatives with 218 votes out of 435, with 9 seats still undecided, thus completing the party’s sweep into power & securing their hold on the U.S. government, alongside President-elect Donald Trump. A House Republican victory in Arizona, alongside a win in slow-counting California earlier Wednesday, gave the GOP the House the seats necessary that make up the majority. House Democrats now control 211 seats. Republicans earlier gained control of the Senate from Democrats with 53 seats versus 47. With control of both houses of Congress, the Trump agenda is likely to be enacted rather quickly in 2025. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six top counterparts including the yen, rose to 106.75, its highest level in one year, as investors expect Trump’s policies to delay the Federal Reserve’s pace of cutting rates. It was reported on Friday, that Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI is raising up to $6 billion at a $50B valuation. Sources say that the funding, which should close early next week, is a combination of $5B expected from sovereign funds in the Middle East & $1B from other investors, some who may want to be re-upping their investments. The money will be used to acquire 100K Nvidia chips, per sources familiar with the situation, which will likely have a measurable impact on improvements to Tesla’s Full Self Driving. Spain’s Deoleo, world’s largest olive oil producer, says one of the most challenging eras in the industry’s history seems to be drawing to a close, with prices expected to nearly halve from an all-time high over the coming months. A prolonged period of extreme weather & drought in southern Europe has severely impacted olive harvests in recent years, culminating in a price rally that shocked the industry & consumers. Prices have since cooled, however, as industry estimates point to significantly improved harvests in the 2024-2025 season, particularly in key producing countries such as Spain, Greece & Tunisia. Latin American poverty levels in 2023 fell to a 33-year low, led by progress in Brazil, the United Nations' Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (ECLAC) said in a report on Tuesday, even as severe inequality persists in the region. ECLAC said Latin America is marked by high inequality, limited social mobility & weak social cohesion, underpinned by inadequate social policies & weak protection systems. Over 170M people in the region are affected by poverty, particularly in Haiti, Nicaragua, & Honduras.
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EU Warns to prepare emergency, Warren Buffet shows chaos ahead, Spain floods (Recap ep296)
11/03/2024
EU Warns to prepare emergency, Warren Buffet shows chaos ahead, Spain floods (Recap ep296)
In today's Recap, Marcello talks to us about how Europe is facing a tough mix of crises, with both weather and economic warnings piling up. In Spain, record-breaking rainfall in Valencia flooded streets, destroyed homes, and left dozens dead, marking one of Europe’s worst floods in years. As citizens continue to search for the missing, the EU is urging people to stock up on supplies, cautioning that many countries aren't ready for a prolonged emergency. At the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has sparked concern by selling a large chunk of its Apple shares, hinting at possible stormy waters ahead for the markets. Meteorologists said a year's worth of rain had fallen in 8 hours in parts of Valencia, Spain on Tuesday. Residents described seeing people clambering onto the roofs of their cars, as a churning tide of brown water gushed through the streets, uprooting trees & dragging away chunks of masonry from buildings. In the hard-hit rural town of Utiel, some 85 km (53 miles) inland, the Magro river burst its banks, sending up to three metres (9.8 feet) of water into homes, which are mostly single-storey. The floods have also wrecked crops and killed livestock. Spanish rescue teams scoured flooded homes & stranded cars on Thursday for those still missing after devastating floods in the Valencia region that killed at least 95 people, with forecasts of more bad weather prompting storm alerts further north. Local authorities have not disclosed how many people are still unaccounted for after Europe's deadliest floods in years,The floods battered Valencia's infrastructure, sweeping away bridges, roads & rail tracks as well as submerging farmland in a region that produces about 2/3 of the citrus fruit grown in Spain, a leading global exporter of oranges. The U.S. cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase fell -15.34% on Thursday at $179.25, in the worst day in over 2 year, after posting a Q3 earnings & revenue miss. Coinbase’s revenue came in at $1.21B, while analysts anticipated a top line figure of $1.26B. The stock is down -9.44% in the past 3 months, but up +6.45% in 2024 & +115.78% y/y, with a market cap of $44.88B. The most recent jobs report offered a final look at the U.S. labor market ahead of next week's election. The economy added a mere 12,000 jobs. The softer than expected October jobs report made traders more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at both of its remaining policy meetings this year, rather than remaining passive. Crude oil prices slightly rose on Friday, on reports that Iran is planning another attack on Israel through proxies. Despite the rebound, prices are still headed for modest weekly losses, due to widespread concerns over a weaker demand outlook & an oversupplied market in 2025, with traders waiting to see if OPEC+ will stick to its plan to start hiking output in December. The e-commerce giant stock Amazon surged +6.19% on Friday at $197.93 on Q3 results that beat analysts’ expectations. The firm said on Thursday that it expects revenue in a range of $181.5B to $188.5B in Q4. Analysts had forecast $186.36B in revenue for the quarter. Amazon said operating income is expected to be between $16B & $20B during Q4. Wall Street had projected $17.49B. In Q3, Amazon posted earnings per share of $1.43 on revenue of $158.9B. Analysts had expected EPS of $1.16 on revenue of $157.29B. The firms’s cloud segment, Amazon Web Services, grew +19% y/y for the quarter. Shares are up +17.89% in the past 3 months, +30.27% in 2024 & +42.81% y/y, with a market cap of $2.08T. A tax amnesty program in Argentina encouraging residents to deposit foreign currency kept in their homes or saved in accounts abroad drew around $18B by an initial deadline on Thursday, an official said. Libertarian President Javier Milei rolled out the plan earlier this year, to draw much-needed dollars back to Argentina's formal economy, as it deals with a shortage of foreign currency reserves, amid a technical recession. The deposits are seen as signs of a vote of confidence in Milei's leadershi,p as his austerity measures have helped bring down month-on-month inflation to single-digit figures. Annual inflation, however, remains in the triple digits. Ukraine is using dozens of domestically made AI-augmented systems for its drones to reach targets on the battlefield without being piloted, a senior official said, disclosing new details about the race against Russia to harness automation. Systems that use artificial intelligence allow cheap drones carrying explosives to spot or fly to their targets in areas protected by extensive signal jamming, which has reduced the effectiveness of manually piloted drones. Researchers have recently uncovered a secret Mayan city in Mexico which once featured an urban landscape of over 6,500 structures. The scientific team used lidar technology to create 3-dimensional models across 50 miles of land in Campeche, allowing them to map areas, not visible to the naked eye. The method revealed a 21-square-mile metropolis with iconic stone pyramids, houses & other infrastructure that have been concealed for over 3,000 years.
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Tesla launches Robots, Warren Buffet Keeps selling, Joe Rogan interviews Trump (Recap ep295)
10/13/2024
Tesla launches Robots, Warren Buffet Keeps selling, Joe Rogan interviews Trump (Recap ep295)
In this week's Recap, Marcello tells us how Tesla is making headlines with the launch of its new robots, driverless taxi, and driverless van, showcasing advancements in AI and automation. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett continues his massive sell-off, shedding billions of dollars in stocks over the past few months, signaling caution in the markets. And in the world of media, Joe Rogan’s highly anticipated interview with Donald Trump has sparked conversations about politics, media, and the future of the U.S. Hurricane Milton marched across Florida starting on Wednesday & into Thursday, as the storm hit Florida's west coast as a Category 3 hurricane, whipping up deadly tornadoes, destroying homes & knocking out power to 3.3M customers, but the Tampa Bay metropolitan area appeared to have escaped without the catastrophic flooding that had been feared. Authorities were still waiting for rivers to crest, but so far water levels were at or below what they received with Hurricane Helene 2 weeks ago. Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent firm of Donald Trump's Truth Social, rose 18.54% on Tuesday at $21.80, up for a 4th session of gains, in the longest rally since June, as investors assess Elon Musk support & latest media appearances by VP Harris as the Democratic nominee for president. More than 45M DJT shares were exchanged Tuesday, more than tripling its 30-day average volume. Trump owns nearly 57% of Trump Media, in a stake worth almost $2.5B as of Tuesday, gaining near $400M in valuation for the former president, who has vowed not to sell his shares. The stock is up +37.89% in the past 5 days & +30.70% in the past month. European stock markets were higher on Friday,at more than a 1-week high as investors shifted their focus to updates on China's stimulus plans, corporate earnings and an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank. Traders were also digesting the return of growth in the U.K. for the month of August & the posting on Thursday of France’s national budget. Shares of the U.S. based electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla fell -8.78% on Friday at $217.80, after its robotaxi event underwhelmed investors. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the event overall disappointed expectations, due to a lack of details in several areas, including how the company is going to compete against ride-sharing companies, like Lyft & Uber. Shares of those firms jumped following the event, with Lyft surging +9.59% at $13.60 & Uber gaining +10.81% at $86.34. Tesla stock is down -12.26% in the past 3 months, -12.35% in 2024 & -13.27% y/y, with a market cap of $695.79B.
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Warren Buffet continues to sell, World War 3 is back, Elon Musk goes Dark Maga (Recap ep294)
10/07/2024
Warren Buffet continues to sell, World War 3 is back, Elon Musk goes Dark Maga (Recap ep294)
In today's Recap, Marcello tells us that the tensions in the Middle East are reaching a dangerous peak as Israel escalates its military response, with commando and paratroop units launching raids into Lebanon on Tuesday. Hezbollah retaliated with missile strikes on Israel, targeting areas near Tel Aviv, while Iran fired over 180 ballistic missiles in a growing regional conflict. As fears of an all-out war loom, financial markets are also feeling the impact. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued its massive stock selloff, offloading another $338M worth of Bank of America shares this week, bringing the total to over $9B since mid-July. It was reported on Thursday that Berkshire Hathaway sold another chunk of Bank of America shares during the past 3 trading sessions, bringing its remaining stake to just +10.2%. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate dumped more than 8.5M shares of the bank worth $338M, according to a new regulatory filing. Berkshire has shed more than $9B worth of the bank stock in a big selling spree, that started in mid-July. Once its stake drops below 10%, Berkshire will no longer have to disclose related transactions within 2 business days. According to the U.S. Labor Department data released Friday, the U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September & the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% The September jobs report blew past economist expectations, which foresaw the addition of 140,000 jobs & a jobless rate of 4.2%. At least 215 people are known to have died as a result of the destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene, the 2nd deadliest storm in the U.S. in the last 50 years, since it made landfall in Florida a week ago.More than half of the deaths were in North Carolina, where several feet of fast-moving water destroyed entire communities.Hundreds are still missing, and officials have reported difficulties in identifying some of the dead. There is flood & wind damage that may end up costing $250B, in the states Florida, North & South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, & Tennessee. U.S. listed shares of the automaker Stellantis fell around 4.04% on Thursday at $13.08, hitting a new 52-week low during the session, following a downgrade to equal weight from overweight at U.K. investment banker Barclays. Analyst Henning Cosman said that the firm was “wrong-footed” on the stock, as it was “too slow to acknowledge its US inventory issue & eroding E.U. & U.S. market shares. Shares of Tesla fell -3.49% on Wednesday at $249.02, after the U.S. electric vehicle company fell short of Q3 delivery estimates. Deliveries came in at 462,890, versus an earlier estimate of 463,310.Tesla is facing increased competitive pressure, especially in China, from companies like BYD & Geely, along with a new generation of automakers, including Li Auto & Nio It is being reported Thursday evening that negotiations on the U.S. port strike continue & the parties reached a tentative agreement on wages & agreed to extend the master contract until Jan. 15. The sources said they will return to the bargaining table to negotiate all outstanding issues. 50K of U.S. dockworkers had walked off the job early Tuesday morning, clogging dozens of ports along the East & Gulf coasts. The ILA, the union representing the East Coast & Gulf Coast dockworkers under the contract at issue, was seeking higher wages & a ban on the use of some automated equipment. On Thursday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg surpassed Jeff Bezos as the world’s 2nd richest person.Zuckerberg’s net worth reached $206.2B topping the $205.1B net worth of the former Amazon CEO & president. The Facebook co-founder now trails Tesla chief Elon Musk by roughly $50B, With his 13% stake in Meta, Zuckerberg’s net-worth has risen by $78B since the beginning of the year, which is more than any member of the 500 richest people globally. Meta shares closed at a record high on Thursday at $582.77, representing a roughly 68% jump from early January, when its shares were trading at $346.29.
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Warren Buffet Sells Billions, Fed Drops interest rates, iPhone Demand Craters (Recap ep293)
09/23/2024
Warren Buffet Sells Billions, Fed Drops interest rates, iPhone Demand Craters (Recap ep293)
In today's recap, Marcello talks about how Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been aggressively selling off billions in stock, including $896 million worth of Bank of America shares and around $8 billion in Vodafone since mid-July. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve made headlines by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday—the first reduction in 2.5 years. Also, Apple shares fell -2.78% amid reports of sluggish demand for its latest iPhone models, with iPhone 16 sales down 12% compared to the previous year’s launch. The U.S. national debt has ballooned to $35.378 trillion, and the Treasury Department has already spent $1 trillion this fiscal year. By the end of 2024, interest payments on the debt are projected to total $1.2 trillion, second only to Social Security spending at $1.5 trillion. Under Trump, the national debt increased by $7.3 trillion, but Biden has already surpassed that with $8.4 trillion in new debt. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been actively selling off its stake in major companies throughout 2024, including dumping $896 million in Bank of America shares, reducing its position to 836 million shares (a 10.8% stake). Berkshire has also offloaded around $8 billion worth of Vodafone stock since mid-July. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, marking the first rate reduction in 2.5 years, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.75%-5%. Apple shares fell -2.78% on Monday to $216.32 after reports of sluggish demand for its latest iPhone models. Analysts noted that iPhone 16 demand is down 12% compared to the iPhone 15 during its launch weekend, with data suggesting weaker sales for the Pro models. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points Wednesday, the central bank’s 1st rate reduction following a two-and-a-half year crusade against inflation that raged in the wake of the pandemic. The new federal funds rate is 4.75% to 5% , a large rate cut that signals the Fed’s confidence that its war against inflation is coming to an end. The Fed incrementally increased interest rates from near 0 in March 2022 to a range of 5.25 to 5.5% last July, as it battled rising inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. Sugar futures surged to their largest weekly gain in years, driven by “unusual and persistent weather events” in Brazil. Roughly 59% of the country is currently facing drought conditions, with some Amazon rivers hitting all-time lows, making several waterways unnavigable. This severe drought has led to fears of reduced crop yields, causing a significant spike in sugar prices. Gold prices have soared to unprecedented levels, setting a new record high and closing price. This surge is attributed to a perfect storm of economic and geopolitical factors, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy shift and escalating tensions in the Middle East. December gold was trading at $2,647.10 on Friday. The U.S. delivery giant FedEx shares plunged -15.23% on Friday at $254.64, after reporting a steep quarterly earnings drop. The firm also lowered its full-year revenue forecast. CEO Raj Subramaniam said industrial demand was softer than expected, while FedEx’s customers continued to shift to cheaper, slower delivery options, which has squeezed profits. The stock is up +0.66% in 2024, but down -2.47% y/y, with a market cap of $62.21B. Tesla shares +7.36% Thursday at $243.92, as the EV maker rallied along with other auto-makers due to the larger than expected interest rate cut by the Fed . Vehicle insurance registrations last week in China declined sequentially, but the firm is still trending towards its best ever quarterly deliveries total in the world's largest EV market, with just 2 weeks left in Q3.Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up +26% vs last quarter & have increased over +20% vs. a year ago.Tesla's China vehicle registrations in Q3 are now nearly +5% above Q4 2023, the EV giant's best ever quarterly performance. The stock is up +33.28% in the past 3 months, but still down -1.84% in 2024 & -0.39% y/y, market cap of $779.24B.
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2nd Trump Assassination Attempt, SpaceX 1st private spacewalk, Consumers take huge hit (Recap Ep292)
09/16/2024
2nd Trump Assassination Attempt, SpaceX 1st private spacewalk, Consumers take huge hit (Recap Ep292)
This week saw a variety of significant developments across markets, commodities, finance, and international affairs. In the US, markets remained volatile with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for core inflation showing an unexpected rise in August. Meanwhile, energy markets faced turbulence, with oil recording its worst week in nearly a year. On the other hand, precious metals rallied on Friday, fueled by optimism around potential interest rate cuts. In a notable legislative move, New Jersey eliminated sales taxes on gold and silver, adding momentum to the precious metals market. Financial and economic news remained a mixed bag. Bolivian inflation hit its highest level in nearly a decade at a 12-month rate of 5.19%, while Argentina’s inflation for August was projected at 3.9%. German inflation, on the other hand, dropped to its lowest point in over three years, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by another 0.25%, bringing them down to 3.50%. This reduction follows a similar cut in June, putting the ECB within striking distance of its 2% inflation target. Japan’s second-quarter GDP also saw a positive uptick of 2.9% on an annualized basis, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook. In the political arena, tensions were high with a second reported assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump and an active shooter incident on a golf course. Violent crime statistics continued to paint a grim picture compared to 2020, with figures showing a 40% increase in violent crimes overall. Notably, car thefts were up 42%, aggravated assaults increased by 55%, and violent attacks by strangers surged 61%. These figures underscore growing concerns over public safety in many parts of the country. Corporate news highlighted both challenges and opportunities. Samsung announced plans to slash its global workforce by up to 30% amid stiff competition from Apple and Huawei. BMW had a rough week, with shares dropping 11.15%, marking the automaker's worst day in more than four years, largely driven by sluggish demand in China. Boeing faced another setback, with over 30,000 workers poised to strike after rejecting a new labor contract, threatening to halt production of aircraft, including the best-selling 737 Max. Ally Financial, one of the largest US banks, reported rising delinquencies and charge-offs, causing significant concern in the financial sector, while Big Lots prepared for bankruptcy, planning to shut down 1,400 stores across the country. In technology, Nvidia shares rebounded significantly, climbing 8.15% on Wednesday and another 3% on Thursday, driven by rising demand for chips. Nvidia has seen an impressive 143% increase in stock price in 2024, reflecting the company's growing dominance in the tech sector. SpaceX once again made headlines by successfully completing the world’s first private spacewalk, pushing the boundaries of commercial spaceflight. Meanwhile, internationally, South America's Paraguay River hit a record low, hampering critical trade routes for soy, corn, and other exports, while Bolivia declared a national emergency due to raging forest fires.
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Stocks lost $2 TRILLION, Tesla full self driving in China/Europe, California earthquake coming (Recap ep291)
09/08/2024
Stocks lost $2 TRILLION, Tesla full self driving in China/Europe, California earthquake coming (Recap ep291)
In this week's Recap, Marcello shows us how the U.S. stock markets have seen over $2 trillion wiped out in just six days, a loss equivalent to the entire GDP of Canada. With growing recession fears sparked by the latest jobs report, stocks have taken their worst hit since March 2023. Meanwhile, Tesla's stock has surged nearly 5%, as the company prepares to expand its Full Self-Driving technology to China and Europe, pending regulatory approval. There are also some concerns rising in California, there might be an earthquake coming. U.S. stock markets were far lower on Friday, in the worst trading week since March 2023, after the latest jobs report had investors increasingly concerned over possibility of recession. Concerns that AI demand won't live up to lofty priced-in expectations hit tech shares. Anxiety about the economy has shaken markets again this week, sending the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level of the year, during a volatile trading day. Crude prices fell further Friday to its lowest level since June 2023, in the worst week in nearly a year. Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company has cut its October pricing for its Arab Light crude oil for Asian buyers, according to the new price list. Saudi Aramco has cut its Arab Light crude oil by $0.70. Saudi Aramco has also lowered the price of Arab Light to Europe & the U.S. As an economic slowdown is impacting ever more of the global economy, it is likely oil demand will be impacted as well. Elon Musk's satellite broadband firm, Starlink, on Tuesday stated that it is complying with Brazil's top court order to block access to social media platform X in the country, a day after informing the country's regulator it wouldn’t obey the order. Starlink had emerged as a fresh battleground between Musk & Brazil, as top court judge Alexandre de Moraes ordered the freeze of the company's accounts for possible use to pay fines owed by X, which is also owned by Musk. Colombia's government on Friday reached a deal with truckers to suspend a protest over a rise in diesel prices, after road blockades threatened to cause food & fuel shortages in the biggest cities. The deal came after the government backed down from its plan to increase the price of diesel by 1,904 pesos ($0.45 ) per gallon starting this month, instead agreeing to a rise of just 800 pesos in 2 equal increments during the rest of the year. Rancho Palos Verdes, a coastal community in the Los Angeles area,is a geological ticking time bomb. The affluent city sits atop steep cliffs overlooking spectacular views of the Pacific Ocean that, for 100’s of years, have been slowly shifting & giving way. Now, that movement is accelerating. Whereas the ground slid downward 8 inches annually in years past, it has lurched 13 inches per week in some places, between July & August. The resulting landslides have ripped apart seaside mansions, buckled roads & forced the utility provider to cut electricity to nearly 250 homes, to avoid the possibility of fires. This week the governor of California declared a state of emergency for the community.
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Record Cooling Atlantic Ocean, Interest Rate Gods Respond, Warren Buffett Keeps Selling (Recap Ep290)
08/25/2024
Record Cooling Atlantic Ocean, Interest Rate Gods Respond, Warren Buffett Keeps Selling (Recap Ep290)
In US Market News, Monday marked the eighth consecutive session of gains for U.S. stocks, with traders anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments later in the week. The Fed’s latest policy meeting reinforced expectations of a rate cut in September. Powell confirmed that rate cuts are forthcoming but did not specify the timing. Additionally, new data indicated weaknesses in the labor market. In Conspiracy News, reports suggest the Atlantic Ocean is cooling at a record pace, baffling climate scientists. Concerns are also mounting over high fluoride exposure in children, which has been linked to lower IQ and other neurodevelopmental issues. Notably, toothpaste labels now advise calling emergency services if ingested. In Bitcoin and Crypto News, Japan’s banks are set to adopt XRP for transactions starting in 2025. This move places Japan at the forefront of digital currency integration, allowing nationwide XRP payments and rewards. In Commodities and Energy, peace talks in the Middle East are reducing supply risks, while China’s economic weakness poses a threat to demand. Chinese refineries have reduced crude processing rates due to low fuel demand. U.S. crude futures fell 3.01% to $74.34, while Brent futures dropped 2.51% to $77.68. Gold has risen 22% in 2024, reaching an all-time high, with a bar of gold now valued at $1 million. In Financial and Banking News, China plans to bolster its social security fund by 2.88 trillion yuan ($406 billion) to support its aging population, with 300 million Chinese expected to retire in the next decade. By 2040, half of the people over 65 in the Asia-Pacific region will live in China. Projections indicate China’s pension system could run out of funds by 2035. In Economic News, Japan’s business activity hit a 15-month high in August, with growth in both manufacturing and services sectors. In the U.S., July home sales ended a four-month decline, with supply increasing by nearly 20% compared to last year. In Political News, Venezuela’s Supreme Justice Tribunal upheld Nicolás Maduro’s presidential election victory on July 28. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Donald Trump. In Corporate News, Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested in France and faces up to 20 years in prison. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold 13.9 million more major bank shares, reducing its stake to 11.9%. In Technology, Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, opened a new chip plant in Dresden, Germany. This move strengthens TSMC’s position as a key supplier to Europe’s industrial and automotive sectors, supported by 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) in state aid. In Interesting Facts, archaeologists discovered a giant rock in the Colombian Amazon with animal paintings dating back to around 12,500 BC. This find offers insights into the diet and mythologies of the continent’s early inhabitants.
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Gold cont to explode, Doomsday Fish found California, Japan Warns mega earthquake (Recap ep289)
08/20/2024
Gold cont to explode, Doomsday Fish found California, Japan Warns mega earthquake (Recap ep289)
In this week's Recap, Marcello let us know that gold continues to explode in value, reaching record highs as investors anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, a "doomsday" fish has been discovered off the coast of California, raising concerns of seismic activity, and Japan has issued a stark warning, urging citizens to prepare for a potential mega earthquake. The latest inflation data released on Wednesday has given investors confidence that a rate cut from the Federal Reserve is likely next month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices rose by 2.9% over the past 12 months through July, which was below economists' expectations of 3%. A rare "doomsday" fish, the Oarfish, was found near the Southern California shore, raising concerns. Known as the largest deep-sea fish, the Oarfish has historically been linked to seismic activity, with more than 20 washing ashore in Japan just months before the devastating 9.1 earthquake in 2011. The governments of Japan and the Philippines are now warning citizens to prepare for a potential mega quake. Iron ore prices hit their lowest level since 2022 on Wednesday, driven by concerns over global supply and demand imbalances. China's steelmakers are in crisis, cutting output just as major miners boost exports. Futures fell for the fourth consecutive day in Singapore, with China's steel production about 9% lower than a year ago, signaling a slowdown in the largest importer of seaborne iron ore. In the UK, inflation rose to 2.2% in July, slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, with employment rising by 0.2%. France saw its consumer prices increase by 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly up from the previous month's preliminary reading. Huawei is preparing to introduce a new AI chip in a bid to challenge Nvidia's dominance in China, especially amid U.S. chip export controls. The tech giant has been testing the latest chip in recent weeks and aims to start shipping as early as October. Greece's worst wildfire of the year spread into the Athens suburbs on Monday, forcing hundreds of people to flee as the flames encroached on residential areas.
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arren Buffett Sells Most Stocks Ever! Collapse In Stocks, Record Cold Weather (Recap ep288)
08/11/2024
arren Buffett Sells Most Stocks Ever! Collapse In Stocks, Record Cold Weather (Recap ep288)
In today's Recap, Marcello informs us that Warren Buffett has sold more stock in the last quarter than at any other time in Berkshire Hathaway's history, signaling a potential collapse in the markets. Global stocks have taken a severe hit, with the U.S. experiencing its worst trading session in two years and Japan suffering its biggest point drop ever, driven by a carry trade liquidation following an interest rate hike. The fallout has been massive, with the "Magnificent 7" companies in the U.S. losing over half a trillion dollars in a single day, marking the worst day of trading since 1987. Meanwhile, as markets plunge, the U.S. is also grappling with record-breaking cold weather, with over 30 cities experiencing temperatures typically seen in October. Mainstream media has largely been silent on the dozens of nighttime low-temperature records being shattered across the country. The 7 most-valuable U.S. tech companies, the Magnificent 7, lost a combined $1 trillion in market value, at the start of trading on Monday. The losses were later pared in the session ending down $650B in market capitalization. Nvidia shed over $300B in market cap at the opening bell, though it quickly recovered about half of its loss. Shares of the chipmaker closed down -6.4% for a loss of $168B. Apple & Amazon’s valuation plummeted $224B & $109B, respectively, at the market open. Apple ended down -4.8%, or $162B in market cap. Amazon dropped -4.1% at the close, or $72B. U.S. stock markets moved far higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 in its best session since 2022, after the latest data release on the U.S. economy concerning jobs. Weekly initial claims fell to a lower-than-expected 233K, down from a revised-up 250K, the week before. The data came following last week’s weak jobs report. Treasury bonds fell, with the 10-year yield hitting 4% Japan’s current account surplus for June came in at 1.533T yen ($10.2B), lower than the 1.789T yen expected by economists. Japan posted a current account surplus of 12.68T yen (about 87B U.S. dollars) in the 1st half (H1) of 2024, helped by record returns on foreign investments, amid the yen's depreciation & a smaller trade deficit. Airbnb shares fell near -14% in after-hours trading on Tuesday at $112.75, after the company reported Q2 earnings that missed analyst expectations & warned that it’s seeing signs of slowing demand from U.S. customers. Earnings per share came in at $0.86 versus $0.92 expected. Revenue was $2.75B vs. $2.74B expected. Revenue did increase +11% year-over-year. Airbnb reported a net income of $555M down -15% from $650M, or $0.98 per share, in the year-ago quarter. The company guided to Q3 revenue of $3.67B to $3.73B, but also warned that it expected moderation in y/y growth, relative to the current quarter. The stock is down -18.36% in the past 3 months, -4.16% in 2024 & -6.51% y/y, with a market cap of $80.71B. Many analysts are predicting that gold prices will continue to rise, as investors focus on Federal Reserve interest cuts, while ETF inflows & central bank buying continue to provide support against a backdrop of geopolitical risk. June’s purchases were once again led by emerging market central banks. Uzbekistan & India both added 9 tonnes to their gold reserves during the month. The electric vehicle stock Rivian Automotive fell -6.86% on Wednesday at $13.79 after the U.S. company’s net losses in Q2 widened to $1.46 B from a Q1 loss of $1.45B & from $1.2B in the year-ago period. The loss was nearly $300M worse than Q2 last year.The company did top expectations for certain metrics, with an adjusted loss of $1.13 per share. Analysts surveyed were expecting a loss of $1.21 per share. Rivian’s financial losses have crept up, as it pushed out the last of its 1st-generation R1 trucks & SUVs in favor of newer, more cost-efficient versions in a sign of just how much the company could use the $5B it could get as part of a recently announced deal with Volkswagen Group. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris ended weeks of speculation on Tuesday by choosing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz a Democrat , as her running mate. 1st elected to Congress in 2006, Walz served in the House of Representatives for 12 years & rose to become the top Democrat on the powerful Veterans Affairs Committee, before heading home in 2019 to lead the North Star State. Walz was not only popular on in Congress, but he also had the distinction of being the highest-ranking enlisted soldier in the history of Congress, a status that allowed him to gain supporters in both parties. After sweltering in its hottest July in observed modern history, China has been hit by extreme heat, particularly in the east & south of the country. Zhejiang's provincial capital Hangzhou recorded a 41.9C historical high on Aug. 3.It was reported on Thursday, that at least 2 people have died from heat-stroke in 1 Chinese city, & many more have fallen ill, as temperatures hovered around 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for the 8th day on the eastern seaboard. Over the next 3 days, most areas south of the Yangtze River, like in Shanghai, are expected to get hit by 37C-39C heat, with temperatures in parts of Anhui, Jiangsu & Zhejiang provinces exceeding 40C, forecasters have stated.
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Warren Buffet shows Stock collapse imminent, Companies Showing recession, Bigger War coming Middle East? (Recap ep287)
08/05/2024
Warren Buffet shows Stock collapse imminent, Companies Showing recession, Bigger War coming Middle East? (Recap ep287)
In today's Recap Marcello shows us how Warren Buffett is signaling trouble ahead, with Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile hitting a record $276.9 billion as he sold off major stocks, including half its stake in Apple. This marks seven straight quarters of selling, shedding over $75 billion last quarter alone. Meanwhile, FedEx is cutting daytime flights by 60% to save money, McDonald's is seeing a drop in same-store sales for the first time since 2020, and Chevron is moving from California to Texas. On top of that, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran is raising fears of a bigger conflict in the Middle East. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile swelled to a record $276.9 billion last quarter as Warren Buffett sold significant portions of the company's stock holdings, including half of its stake in Apple. Berkshire has been a seller of stocks for seven consecutive quarters, with the selling accelerating in the last quarter, resulting in over $75 billion in equities being shed. U.S. markets plunged lower on Thursday. Weakening employment, manufacturing & construction data pushed 10 year Treasury yields below +4% & prompted a broad selloff in stocks. Investor fears over a recession have resurfaced. New data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for a 4th straight month. An ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index slid to 46.8 last month from 48.5 in June, to an 8 month low, moving further away from the 50-plus level that signals expansion. Oil fell to the lowest price levels in nearly 7 months on Friday, as concerns about demand in the world’s 2 biggest economies which overshadowed heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Investor sentiment in the oil market has deteriorated as factory gauges in both China & the U.S. showed contractions this week, signaling further weakness in manufacturing. Losses for futures deepened after US payrolls data failed to meet expectations as unemployment reached 3 year highs. Formerly the world's largest chipmaker, U.S. based Intel has gotten beaten by rivals in recent years & is far behind in the AI race. The stock had its worst day in 50 years on Friday down -26.06%at $21.48, to a level not seen since 2013. Intel reported a big earnings miss & announced a mass restructuring that includes cutting 15% of its workforce. Intel expects Q3 revenue of between $12.5B & $13.5B, well short of analysts' expectations of $14.3 B The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02 on revenue of $12.8 B Analysts were looking for EPS of $0.10 & revenue of $12.9B. The company saw EPS of $0.13 on revenue of $12.9B in the same quarter last year,The stock is -57.25% in 2024 & -38.87 y/y. market cap of $91.44B. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) cattle futures have plunged sharply, with back-month feeder cattle contracts setting new lows, as signs of a weakening U.S. economy spurred market participants to unwind long positions. Cattle futures are dropping as a falling stock market prompts worries that consumers will pull back from high-priced beef. Sales of steak typically increase when equity markets rise & with stocks selling off after a weak US jobs report, prices for cattle are tracking the downturn. The volatile trading began after the U.S. Labor Department reported the U.S. unemployment rate had jumped to a near 3-year high in July, heightening market fears that the economy was vulnerable to a recession. The United States on Thursday recognized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's opponent & opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of Venezuela's disputed presidential election, rejecting Maduro's claim of victory. The country's opposition says its tally of about 90% of the votes shows that Gonzalez received more than double the support of the incumbent president, in line with independent polling conducted before the contest.The opposition has released detailed tallies on a public website, while the government has so far not shared any information beyond a national total of votes for each candidate. The UAE to be the world’s top wealth magnet for the 3rd year running, At the same time, the U.K, already the source of many of the UAE’s expatriates, is projected to see its millionaire population drop by 17% by 2028. High-net-worth individuals are in many cases leave, as costs & taxes rise in their home country. The trend is likely to accelerate in the wake of the landslide election victory for the U.K.’s Labour Party in June. The UAE is set to see a record net inflow of 6,700 millionaires from around the world by the end of 2024, which was released in June. That’s nearly double the 2nd-ranked country on the list, the U.S., which is expected to welcome a net inflow of 3,800 millionaires in the same time frame.
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Worst Day Stocks since 2020, Blackout Paris for Olympic Games, Kamala officially running President (Recap ep286)
07/28/2024
Worst Day Stocks since 2020, Blackout Paris for Olympic Games, Kamala officially running President (Recap ep286)
In this week's Recap, Marcello tells us that Wednesday marked the worst day for the stock market since 2020, with a major sell-off wiping out $1.1 trillion from the US stock market. Major tech stocks took a significant hit, with many experiencing double-digit declines in a large tech rout. In political news, President Biden has officially ended his bid for a second term, endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. He intends to remain in office and serve out the rest of his term, which ends in January 2025. Additionally, Paris is facing a blackout crisis just ahead of the Olympic Games, adding to the global turmoil. Although coffee futures fell Wednesday to 2 wk lows, both the high-end arabica beans favored by coffee chains like Starbucks & the more budget-friendly robusta variety have surged in price, thanks to major supply disruptions from Brazil to Vietnam. Up & down the supply chain, sellers have been raising prices & eliminating discounts to protect margins & many warn of further price increases. Coffee prices will keep rising until the middle of 2025, w/European consumers set to pay even more, as new deforestation regulations kick in. Expectations of another production shortfall in Vietnam, world’s top producer of robusta, is fueling a surge in prices for the bean variety used in blends & espressos. Oil prices fell on Friday by over -1% in a 3rd weekly decline, as investor concerns over demand in China, the world's largest importer, outweighed the stronger economic growth in the U.S. Oil imports to China were down -11% in 2024 & -10.7% y/y in June & refined product imports fell -32% during the same period, according to Chinese customs data. U.S. home prices hit a new high in June for the 2nd straight month, with the median existing U.S. home sale price jumping to $426,900, a +4.1% increase from the same time last year, in the latest sign that the housing market remains unaffordable to millions of Americans. Low inventory of homes for sale in much of the country is pushing prices higher. The spring home-buying season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was flat this year. Home sales declined in June for the 4th straight time on a monthly basis. The combination of high prices & elevated mortgage rates has made homeownership less attractive to renters & deterred current homeowners from moving. On Tuesday CEO Elon Musk stated humanoid robots will be in production within the company next year causing Tesla shares to rise earlier in the week. On Wednesday the stock plunged -12.33% to $215.99 in the general U.S. market downturn & after the company’s earnings for Q2 came in weaker than expected. Tesla did beat expectations on revenue, however, posting $25.5B compared to the consensus estimate of $24.77B. Shares are still up +26.92% in the past 3 months, but still down -13.08% in 2024 & -15.53% year on year with a market cap of $785.75B. U.S. shares of Spotify Technology surged +11.96% on Tuesday at $330.79, after the Swedish based music streaming company posted better-than-expected Q2 earnings. Gross margin & operating income also surpassed expectations. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, despite softness in monthly active user counts, pointing to strong margin performance & the company’s focus on premium subscribers & bundles.
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Largest IT outage in history, Elon Musk moves SpaceX to Texas, Cancer can be avoided by Lifestyle (Recap ep285)
07/21/2024
Largest IT outage in history, Elon Musk moves SpaceX to Texas, Cancer can be avoided by Lifestyle (Recap ep285)
In today's Recap, we're diving into some major stories shaking things up around the world. First off, we experienced the largest IT outage in history, which has thrown businesses and services into chaos across the globe. From banking systems to airports and transport, the outage has exposed vulnerabilities in our digital infrastructure. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is relocating SpaceX's headquarters from California to Texas in response to new state regulations, marking a significant shift for the tech industry. And a recent study shows that over half of cancer deaths in the US could be avoided with lifestyle changes, highlighting the impact of our daily habits on our health. Elon Musk has announced plans to move the headquarters of SpaceX and X (formerly Twitter) from California to Texas. This decision comes in response to a new law signed by California Governor Gavin Newsom that prohibits schools from requiring parents to be notified of a child’s gender identification change. The relocation to Texas, a state known for its more business-friendly regulations and policies, is seen as Musk's stance against California's legislative direction. This move could have significant implications for the tech and aerospace industries, highlighting the ongoing tension between state policies and corporate decisions. Shares of CrowdStrike fell -11.10% on Friday at $304.96, after an update by the cybersecurity firm ended up causing a major IT outage, that impacted airlines, financial services, hospitals & many other businesses The outage also sent shares of CrowdStrike rivals SentinelOne & Palo Networks higher, with the stocks gaining 7.85% & 2.16%, respectively. CrowdStrike stock is down -19.19% this week, but up +19.44% in 2024 & +103.66% y/y, with a market cap of $74.22B. A recent study has revealed that more than half of cancer deaths in the United States are a result of lifestyle choices. Smoking has been identified as the number one modifiable risk factor, contributing to nearly 20% of all cancer cases and close to 30% of cancer deaths. Other lifestyle factors, such as poor diet, lack of physical activity, and excessive alcohol consumption, also play significant roles in cancer risk. The findings underscore the critical importance of preventive measures and lifestyle modifications in reducing cancer incidence and mortality rates. Public health initiatives focused on education and intervention could potentially save countless lives by addressing these modifiable risk factors. U.S. stock markets lower Thursday, as investors trimmed positions in technology stocks & took profits in other sectors. The health care sector of the S&P 500 slid -2.29%, for its worst session since September 2022 Germany plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year, despite concerns that U.S. support for Ukraine could potentially diminish if Republican candidate Trump becomes President again. German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4B Euros ($4.35B) in 2025 from around 8B Euros in 2024. Germany hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50B in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven & that funds earmarked for armaments will not be fully used. Trump Media & Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, saw its stock skyrocket by 31.37% on Monday, closing at $40.58. This surge followed an attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump last Saturday. Many analysts argue that the attempt has boosted the odds of a Trump victory in the upcoming November presidential election, as it has galvanized his support base and heightened media attention. The incident has added a dramatic twist to an already intense political landscape, potentially reshaping the dynamics of the election race. China's economy grew at a much slower pace than expected in the second quarter of 2024, with a growth rate of 4.7%, missing analysts' forecasts. The protracted property downturn and job insecurity have hit the struggling recovery hard, increasing expectations that China will need to implement even more stimulus measures. Retail sales growth has slowed to an 18-month low as deflationary pressures forced businesses to cut prices. The property crisis deepened in June, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, severely damaging consumer confidence. Property investment in China fell by 10.1% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year, and home sales by floor area declined by 19.0%. Bank lending for June showed a faltering demand, with some key criteria hitting record lows, indicating a troubling economic outlook for the country. In a groundbreaking archaeological find, scientists have discovered artwork on the ceiling of a limestone cave on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi, dated to be approximately 51,200 years old. This remarkable discovery is now considered the world's oldest-known dated cave painting.
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Trump Assassination Attempt, Barcelona Attacks Tourists, Tesla Explodes (Recap Ep284)
07/14/2024
Trump Assassination Attempt, Barcelona Attacks Tourists, Tesla Explodes (Recap Ep284)
This week, the main news is the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, which is being investigated as an attempted assassination of the former president and presumptive Republican nominee. The Secret Service killed the suspected shooter, who attacked from an elevated position outside the rally venue. Trump called for unity and resilience as leaders across the political spectrum reacted to the shooting. In U.S. Market News, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank is paying greater attention to when it will cut interest rates as economic growth and the labor market continue to cool. The S&P 500 closed at +0.55%, marking its 25th record close for the year. In Bitcoin & Other Cryptocurrency News, the German government has been selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin for weeks. In Commodities & Energy, India and Russia are likely to agree on a long-term uranium supply pact for nuclear power in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia on Monday and Tuesday for the first time in five years, and is expected to hold talks with President Putin and possibly deliver strategic deals, including a military agreement. In Financial & Banking News, unemployment jumped to a four-year high, triggering the Federal Reserve’s dreaded Sahm Rule, indicating a recession. The monthly inflation rate dipped in June for the first time in over four years, decreasing by 0.1% from May and putting the 12-month rate at +3%, the lowest level in over three years. This makes it more likely that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this year. In Economic News, U.S. consumer sentiment fell to an eight-month low in July as high prices continued to weigh on Americans’ views of their finances and the economy. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.2% in June, slightly more than expected, due to the rising cost of services. Investors still expect the Fed to start cutting rates in September. In Corporate News, Tesla shares rose by 3.71% on Tuesday to $262.33. Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating on Tesla. In May, Tesla's market share in the U.S. EV market was 15%, but it fell below 50% in Q2. The stock is now in its 10th straight positive day, having erased all year-to-date losses and surged about 75% since hitting 52-week lows in April. The stock is up 40.91% in the past three months but down 3.00% for 2024. In Technology, Samsung launched the Galaxy Ring, its first foray into “smart rings.” The Galaxy Ring is a lightweight ring equipped with sensors designed for 24/7 health monitoring. In International Events, mass tourism troubles in Barcelona reached a fever pitch as protesters threw items and sprayed travelers with water guns and canned drinks while shouting “tourists go home.” Protesters used thick police-style tape to block hotel entrances and sidewalk cafes in Barceloneta and marched with a large banner demanding that city officials “decrease tourists now.” The U.S. National Weather Service said a widespread heat wave is expected to deliver record temperatures along the U.S. West Coast, with 36 million people under excessive heat warnings. Temperatures are running over 20 degrees above normal in places like Redding, with Death Valley National Park projecting highs near 130F (54C) through next Friday. Las Vegas hit 120 degrees, setting a new all-time record.
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Blackout in Europe! Tesla dominates, SpaceX cell phone satellites (Recap ep283)
07/07/2024
Blackout in Europe! Tesla dominates, SpaceX cell phone satellites (Recap ep283)
In today's recap, Marcello talks about a massive blackout that has plunged much of Europe into darkness, with electricity networks in Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and Bosnia & Herzegovina collapsing under the strain of soaring temperatures reaching 41°C (105.8°F). Meanwhile, Tesla continues to dominate the electric vehicle market, with its stock surging 25.47% over the past five days and an impressive 46.33% over the past three months. The company exceeded Q2 delivery expectations with 443,956 vehicles, further fueled by the anticipated success of the Cybertruck as the best-selling EV pickup in the US. On another front, SpaceX has made a significant leap forward with the launch of over 100 Direct to Cell satellites, paving the way for hundreds more this year and new service offerings from T-Mobile in the US. Shares of Tesla surged +10.20% on Tuesday at $231.26, after rising +6.05% on Monday, after the electric vehicle company reported stronger than expected Q2 deliveries. The stock is at its highest level since January. The Elon Musk-led company delivered 443,956 vehicles, while analysts had expected deliveries of 439,000. The figure shows a -4.8% decline from a year ago, but was +14.8% above Q1 numbers. The stock has risen +23.44% over the past 5 days & +38.79% in the past 3 months. Shares are still down -6.93% in 2024 & -17.35% y/y, with a market cap of $737.53B. Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party scored historic gains to win the 1st round of France's parliamentary election on Sunday, exit polls showed, but the final result will depend on the July 07th run-off. The RN was seen winning around 34% of the vote, in a huge setback for President Macron who had called the snap election, after his ticket was trounced by the RN in European Parliament elections earlier this month. The RN's share of the vote was comfortably ahead of leftist & centrist rivals, including Macron's Together alliance, whose bloc was seen winning 20.5%-23%. The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win around 29% of the vote, the exit polls showed. Hurricane Beryl barreled toward Jamaica as a powerful Category 4 storm on Tuesday after battering smaller islands in the eastern Caribbean. The unusually early hurricane felled power lines & unleashed flash floods. Beryl, the 2024 Atlantic season's 1st hurricane & the earliest storm on record to reach the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, hit St. Vincent & the Grenadines especially hard. Late on Monday, Beryl was at Category 5 strength, but weakened slightly on Tuesday. The hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (249 kph), is currently located about 485 miles (781 km) east-southeast of the Jamaican capital of Kingston. Brazil's President Lula da Silva ordered his economic team to comply with the country's fiscal framework & approved suggestions of spending cuts. Brazilian assets had suffered a sell-off in recent weeks, as markets feared fiscal deterioration amid a government reluctance to cut spending, which led to investors' concerns about the government's ability to comply with the fiscal framework approved last year. Lula approved to cut 25.9B reais ($4.7B) in government spending, which will allow Lula's administration to comply with the fiscal framework next year. The Brazilian real has weakened around 13% vs. the U.S. dollar in 2024, 6% in June alone. China has unveiled a list of rare earth regulations aimed at protecting supplies in the name of national security, laying out rules on the mining, smelting & trade in the critical materials used to make products from magnets in electric vehicles to consumer electronics. The regulations, issued by the State Council or cabinet over the weekend, say rare earth resources belong to the state & that the government will oversee the development of the industry around rare earths, a group of 17 minerals of which China has in recent years become the world's dominant producer, accounting for nearly 90% of global refined output.
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Tesla Developing Cheaper Model 2, Warren Buffet donates $5.3B, Cilantro Prices Explodes (Recap ep282)
06/30/2024
Tesla Developing Cheaper Model 2, Warren Buffet donates $5.3B, Cilantro Prices Explodes (Recap ep282)
In this week's Recap, Marcello brings us the latest in finance, technology and market trends. In a significant development for the electric vehicle market, Tesla's stock surged by 4.81% on Wednesday, driven by the announcement of the upcoming Model 2 and positive coverage from Stifel. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has made headlines with his largest annual donation yet, giving away $5.3 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity, while still retaining a substantial stake in his company. On a different note, the culinary world is grappling with skyrocketing cilantro prices, up 400% due to a severe drought, pushing Mexican taquerias to innovate their traditional dishes. The EV maker Tesla stock rose +4.81% on Wednesday at $196.37, after the U.S. financial services firm Stifel initiated coverage of the stock with a buy rating. The firm cited the revamping of Tesla’s Model 3 & Model Y as well as the start of production on its next-generation Model 2 vehicle as catalysts. Its price target of $265 implies 41.4% upside from Tuesday’s close. Tesla shares are up +11.71% in the past 3 months, but down -20.97% in 2024 & -23.74% y/y, with a market cap of $626.26B. On Friday, Warren Buffett made his largest annual donation to date, giving away $5.3 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five different charities. Despite this generous contribution, Buffett still holds a significant stake in his company, owning 207,963 Berkshire A shares and 2,586 B shares, which are collectively worth about $130 billion. Cilantro prices have skyrocketed by 400% due to a severe drought, forcing Mexican taquerias to reimagine traditional dishes and markets to drop the herb from their offerings. In the capital's largest wholesale market, a 5kg (11lbs) bundle of cilantro is now selling for 440 to 500 pesos ($24.26 to $27.57), up from 110 pesos in the first week of May. U.S. athletic apparel giant Nike shares plummeted -19.98% on Friday at $75.37, in the worst session ever, wiping out $28B in valuation, after the firm posted fiscal Q4 revenue of $12.61B, which came below the $12.86B forecast by analysts. The company said quarterly revenue fell -2% from the year prior. Nike's $0.99 earnings per share exceeded analysts' expectations of $0.66. Nike's direct-to-consumer sales declined -8% from the same quarter a year ago to $5.1B. Nike also reduced its full-year outlook. Nike had initially guided for overall sales growth in 2025. The stock is down -19.80% in the past 3 months, -30.58% in 2024 & -31.71% y/y, with a market cap of $113.77B. French inflation slowed slightly in June, providing an economic boost for President Emmanuel Macron 2 days before the 1st stage of parliamentary elections on Sunday. The Insee statistics agency had consumer prices rising +2.5% from a year ago in June, versus + 2.6% in the previous month of May. European stock markets gave up early gains to close lower on Friday, as investors considered key inflation data from both the U.S. & the Euro-zone, while the French benchmark index reported weekly, monthly & quarterly declines, due to French political uncertainties. Paris CAC 40 -0.68%, Frankfurt DAX +0.14%, Italian FTSE -0.10%, Spain’s Ibex -0.07% & London FTSE -0.19%. European STOXX 600 -0.23%, at 511.42, extending losses to the 4th straight session. The personal & household goods sector shed -1%, dragged down by a -3% fall in French beauty giant L'Oreal, after its CEO gave a lower market growth forecast. U.S. denim maker’s Levi Strauss founded in 1853 stock fell -15.40% on Thursday at $19.56, after revenue came in at $1.44B for the fiscal quarter 2, which is slightly below the consensus forecast of $1.45B from analysts polled. The company’s reported net income for the 3-month period that ended May 26 was $18M, or $0.04 per share, compared with a loss of $1.6M, or $0.00 a share, a year earlier. Excluding 1-time items, Levi’s posted earnings of $66M, or $0.16 per share. Sales rose to $1.44B, up about 8% from $1.34B a year earlier. The stock is down -2.15% in the past 3 months, but is still up +18.26% in 2024 & +35.55% y/y, with a market cap of $7.75B. Walgreens Boots Alliance stock fell -22.16% on Thursday at $12.19, after the U.S. retail firm reported fiscal Q3 earnings results that missed analyst expectations. It announced a cut to its full-year adjusted profit outlook & said it will close a significant number of stores that are underperforming as a way to cut costs, but didn't specify how many of its more than 8,700 stores will be affected.
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Elon Musk pay approved, Apple ChatGPT banned in offices?, Collapse of dollar coming… (Recap Ep281)
06/17/2024
Elon Musk pay approved, Apple ChatGPT banned in offices?, Collapse of dollar coming… (Recap Ep281)
This week in US Market News, the Dow Jones dropped by 0.54% to close at 38,589.16, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.58% to 5,431.60, and the NASDAQ surged by 3.24% to 17,688.88. In contrast, Toronto's index fell by 1.89%. In Conspiracy News, the House of Representatives passed a measure that will automatically register men ages 18 to 26 for selective service as part of the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which now heads to the Senate. Additionally, Saudi Arabia decided not to renew its 50-year petro-dollar deal with the US, which expired on June 9, 2024. In Financial & Banking News, US inflation has significantly impacted various sectors over the last three years from January 2021 to March 2024. Home prices increased by 33.9%, household energy prices by 29.8%, car maintenance and repair costs by 30.5%, and car insurance by 51.3%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months through May rose by 3.3%, slightly down from a 3.4% increase. Expenses increased by 0.1% and gained 3.4% year-over-year. In Political News, President Biden's approval rating has fallen to a record low of 37.4%, with a disapproval rating of 56.6%. His son, Hunter Biden, was acquitted on all three counts in his criminal gun trial in Delaware. In Economic News, US consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined in June, with the near-term outlook for inflation holding at its highest level since November 2023. In Corporate News, Apple revealed its long-awaited AI strategy, integrating new Apple Intelligence technology across its suite of apps, including Siri, and partnering with OpenAI to bring ChatGPT to its devices. Elon Musk announced that he would ban Apple devices at his companies if Apple integrates OpenAI at the OS level. Tesla shareholders are set to approve Musk's $56 billion pay package and the company's reincorporation from Delaware to Texas. In International Events, South Florida experienced deluge rainfall on Wednesday, prompting Governor DeSantis to declare an emergency in Broward, Collier, and Sarasota counties. The rainstorm in Sarasota was described as a once-in-500-to-1,000-year event. The Tampa Bay area, which typically expects 7.3 inches of rain for the entire month of June, was significantly affected. In Interesting Facts, a skull fragment found in Greece has been dated to 210,000 years ago, making it the oldest modern human fossil found outside of Africa, at least 15,000 years older than the next oldest modern human fossil found outside of Africa.
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Elon Musk sued insider trading, Fauci said no science in pandemic, record corporate buybacks (Recap ep280)
06/03/2024
Elon Musk sued insider trading, Fauci said no science in pandemic, record corporate buybacks (Recap ep280)
In today's Recap, Marcello talks about how Elon Musk, the maverick CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, finds himself embroiled in an insider trading lawsuit. Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the prominent face of America's pandemic response, has made a striking statement dismissing the role of science during the pandemic, confessing he 'made up' certain COVID-19 rules, including six feet social distancing and masking kids. Adding to the economic buzz, corporate America is witnessing a record surge in stock buybacks, with 154 companies announcing a total of $201 billion in buybacks in May alone. This all-time high, including Apple's record-breaking $110 billion buyback program, suggests strong corporate confidence in future earnings. Ghana, world's 2nd-largest cocoa producer after Ivory Coast cocoa regulator (COCOBOD) will borrow up to $1.5B by Sept, to finance 2024/25 cocoa purchases & compensate for low output. Ghana uses an annual syndicated loan to finance bean purchases from farmers. It is usually agreed at the start of the season in Sept. But this year's $800M loan faced delays due to low cocoa output.COCOBOD has withdrawn $600M & cancelled the remainder as season's 2023/24 cocoa output is seen near 40% below forecast & thus unable to guarantee the full loan. Cocoa production has been affected by adverse weather, disease & cocoa smuggling. Former President Trump became the 1st former U.S. executive to be convicted of a crime on Thursday, when a New York jury found him guilty of falsifying documents to cover up a payment to silence a porn star ahead of the 2016 election. The verdict plunges the United States into unexplored territory ahead of the November vote, when Trump will try to win back the Presidency from Biden. Trump, 77, has denied wrongdoing & is expected to appeal. It is not clear whether the electorate will be influenced by the verdict, with Trump ahead in most of the swing states, which ultimately will determine the election. German business sentiment was stagnant for the month of May, a survey by the country’s Ifo Institute found, after 3 consecutive months of improvements. The ifo Business Climate Index in May stayed at 89.3 points. Companies were less satisfied with their current business situation, but expectations brightened, the Institute’s report read. It fell short of the analyst forecast of 90.4 Manufacturing, trade & construction are seeing recovery, while services fell slightly, according to the report.
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UK govt Warns to prepare, New Bird Flu kills 25% ppl, Companies Warn Consumers Broke (Recap Ep279)
05/26/2024
UK govt Warns to prepare, New Bird Flu kills 25% ppl, Companies Warn Consumers Broke (Recap Ep279)
This week, US Market News highlighted the worst session for the market on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's minutes were released. Concerns about persistent inflation and uncertainty about when officials might cut interest rates added to market jitters. In Conspiracy Theory News, the FDA warned of a new virus with a 25% kill rate, suggesting a bird flu pandemic could potentially kill one in four Americans. Additionally, the UK government launched a "prepare website" advising people on how to prepare for various emergencies, including viral outbreaks, climate emergencies, cyberattacks, and terror attacks. In Commodities, orange juice prices reached a record high in New York, rising 30% in a few weeks due to Brazil's worst harvest in 36 years. Brazil, which accounts for 70% of orange juice exports, has seen a significant impact on its output. In Financial & Banking News, EU nations have formally adopted a plan to use windfall profits from frozen Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine's defense. 90% of the proceeds will go into an EU-run fund for military aid, while the remaining 10% will support the country in other ways. The US debt has swelled to $34.5 trillion, with $11 trillion added since March 2020. Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need to address the structural deficits sooner rather than later. Corporate News saw both McDonald’s and Burger King acknowledging that consumers are financially strained, with plans to reintroduce $5 meals. The Nordic region has become a hub for data centers due to its cooler climate, tax breaks, and renewable power availability. Finland's wind power capacity surged by 75% to 5,677 megawatts in 2022, leading to plummeting prices on windy days. In Technology, Elon Musk and Indonesian Health Minister Sadikin launched SpaceX's satellite internet for the nation's health sector on Sunday, aiming to improve access in remote parts of the archipelago. SpaceX's Starlink, which owns about 60% of the approximately 7,500 satellites orbiting the earth, is expanding its dominant satellite internet presence to Indonesia, the third country in Southeast Asia to receive its services. Trade News noted a capacity crunch in ocean container shipping, hitting global trade just as the peak shipping season begins. Freight spot rates have risen by about 30% over the past few weeks due to bad weather, longer ocean transits, and vessels skipping ports, exacerbating supply chain issues. In International Events, the International Criminal Court's prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the Defense Chief, and three Hamas leaders over alleged war crimes.
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Warren Buffet Secret Investment Revealed, Inflation Out Of Control, Silver Explodes (Recap ep278)
05/20/2024
Warren Buffet Secret Investment Revealed, Inflation Out Of Control, Silver Explodes (Recap ep278)
In today's Recap, Marcello reveals Warren Buffett's secret investment as Berkshire Hathaway makes a major move, becoming the second-largest holder in Chubb with a confidential stock purchase. Marcello also dives into the alarming surge in inflation, now requiring a family of four at least $177,798 to live comfortably in the US. Additionally, Marcello will discuss the explosive rise in silver prices, soaring 11.86% from $28.23 to $31.58, reaching its highest level since 2013. The New York Federal Reserve reported that U.S. credit card default rates hit their highest level in nearly 13 years at the beginning of 2024,The central bank’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit showed the share of seriously delinquent debt, or at least 90 days behind, rose to +6.86% of outstanding balances in Q1 2024, the highest since Q2 of 2011. At the same time, auto delinquencies moved to +2.78%, the highest since Q2 of 2010.Those increases came even though total credit card balances fell to $1.12T, a decline of $14B. However, total consumer debt rose to $17.69T, an increase of $184 B, or 1.1%. The U.S. social media stock Reddit rose +10.04% on Friday at $62.04, after Reddit announced a partnership with OpenAI. Reddit will gain certain artificial intelligence features through the deal, while OpenAI will have access to Reddit’s Data application programming interface for use in training AI models. The stock is up +51.76% over the past month, with a market cap of $9.22B. The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits drifted back lower last week, after showing a spike in the previous period. 1st-time filings totaled 222K for the week that ended May 11, just 1,000 above the estimate & a 10K decline from the previous week’s upwardly revised total, which was the highest since late August. Continuing claims rose to 1.794 M, up 13K from the previous week & a bit above the estimate. Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized -2% in Q1 of 2024. The GDP reading showed a deeper-than-expected contraction in the Q1 compared with a -1.5% contraction expected. The latest data could also likely jeopardize the Bank of Japan’s plans to raise interest rates. Shares of Walmart rallied +6.99% on Thursday at $64.01, after the company reported adjusted Q1 earnings of $0.60 per share, topping the $0.52 expected from analysts. Revenue was $161.5B, beating the $159.5B estimate. Walmart stated it made big gains in e-commerce (+22%) & won over more high-income shoppers.The U.S. big-box retailer said it now expects to hit the high end or slightly top its previous full-year guidance. Walmart had expected net sales growth of 3% to 4% & adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of between $2.23 & $2.37. The stock is up +21.81% in 2024 & +28.10% y/y, with a market cap of $515.91B. Singapore Airlines named the world’s best airline in 2023 by Skytrax posted a record operating profit of 2.73B Singapore dollars ($2.03B) for its fiscal year 2023 ending March 31, exceeding the previous record of SG$2.69 billion set last year. Net profit also hit a fresh record of SG$2.67B, +24% higher than a year ago. Full-year revenue increased 7% y/y, to SG$19.01B, driven by higher passenger revenue. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is no longer in a life-threatening condition after he was shot in an assassination attempt when leaving a government meeting on Wednesday, a government minister reported. The gunman shot Fico, 59, 5 times, initially leaving the prime minister in critical condition & undergoing surgery hours later on Wednesday evening. Slovak media is reporting that the 71 year old shooter’s motive remains unclear. Chileans are facing the most intense cold snap in nearly 70 years, bringing winter weather in the middle of autumn. It is the longest cold wave ever recorded in the capital of Santiago, at least since 1950 for fall. For Thursday, the meteorological office expected a minimum temperature of 1 degree Celsius (34 Fahrenheit) in the central Santiago area.The change was abrupt, within days of summer heat ending, mountains near the capital had snowy peaks.
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Starlink crushes $6 Billion Revenue, Solar Storm lights up world, Coffee prices explode (Recap ep277)
05/13/2024
Starlink crushes $6 Billion Revenue, Solar Storm lights up world, Coffee prices explode (Recap ep277)
In today's Recap, Marcello talks about Elon Musk's Starlink, the satellite internet venture, that has stunned analysts with a projected revenue surge to $6.6 billion by 2024, showcasing its meteoric rise and disruptive force in the satellite communications industry. Meanwhile, a looming solar storm illuminated the skies with spectacular auroras, captivating observers with nature's awe-inspiring display but also being a heads up on the risk this might pose to the electronic networks of the earth. On another front, the cost of robusta coffee beans has skyrocketed by over 60%, driven by a confluence of factors including adverse weather in Vietnam and rising competition from export crops like durian to China, foreshadowing potential changes in consumer habits and supermarket shelves worldwide. Elon Musk's Starlink, the satellite internet venture under SpaceX, is experiencing unprecedented growth, with analysts projecting a staggering revenue increase from $1.4 billion in 2022 to $6.6 billion in 2024. Since its inception in 2019, Starlink has rapidly expanded its constellation to nearly 6,000 satellites, with over 5,200 operational, and has deployed nearly 3 million terminals across 75 countries. This growth trajectory surpasses the combined revenue of the two largest geostationary satellite operators, SES and Intelsat, which recently announced a merger, highlighting Starlink's disruptive impact on the satellite communications industry. The cost of robusta coffee, the bean variety used in instant coffee & some espresso blends, has surged +60% over the past year, reaching its highest in nearly 50 yrs, which will be reflected in supermarket shelves. This is due to a combination of bad weather in Vietnam, world’s largest grower of robusta, plus competition with another fruit crop, namely the durian for export into China. Robusta beans had been in demand as roasters anticipated that the cost-of-living crisis, will prompt consumers to switch toward cheaper coffee blends. China is now developing a taste for coffee, ushering in an era, with coffee prices higher for longer. A severe solar storm is expected to supercharge the northern lights or aurora borealis on Friday, with forecasts indicating that auroras could be seen as far south in the United States as Alabama & northern California in North America. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center stated on Thursday that a series of solar flares & eruptions from the sun could trigger severe geomagnetic storms & spectacular displays of aurora on Earth from Friday evening through the weekend. China's economy is slowing & citizens are moving to buy more gold, as a safe-haven asset to hedge against economic uncertainties, sending prices of the precious metal to new record highs there. The country's central bank has also joined the movement, adding 60K troy ounces of gold to its holdings in April, according to official data released. It marks the 18th straight month the People's Bank of China was piling in on gold. The heightened interest in gold is also a pushback to the strong US dollar, which is making it too expensive for emerging nations like China to import goods. U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in 6 months, as Americans cited stubbornly high inflation & interest rates, in addition on fears that unemployment will rise. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, released Friday, in a preliminary version, dropped to 67.4 this month from a final reading of 77.2 in April. May's reading is still near +14% higher than a year ago. Consumers' outlook has generally been grim since the pandemic & particularly after inflation first spiked in 2021. Consumers' willingness to spend is a crucial driver of growth.
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Warren Buffet's Record Cash, Tesla explodes on China news, Apple IPhone Sales drop (Recap ep276)
05/05/2024
Warren Buffet's Record Cash, Tesla explodes on China news, Apple IPhone Sales drop (Recap ep276)
In today's Recap, Marcello tells us that Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, is making headlines for stacking up record cash reserves. Meanwhile, Tesla is soaring high after securing approval to launch its full self-driving technology in China, sending its stock price up by a whopping 15.31%. And over at Apple, its fortunes are mixed as its stock surged by 7% in after-hours trading, driven by impressive Q2 earnings and a substantial stock buyback announcement, despite a notable drop in iPhone sales. Bitcoin continued its month-long slide on Tuesday, to close out April, at one point trading down to below $57K. The leading cryptocurrency ended the month down -15% & post its 1st negative month in the past 8. It was be the worst month since November 2022, when FTX collapsed. It’s still up over +37% for 2024. On Wednesday, Bitcoin rose over +1.50% bringing it to near $58K, again. It remains up near 100% year on year. Preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed that German inflation rose slightly in April, due to higher food prices & a smaller drop in energy prices than in previous months. German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, rose +2.4% in April, compared with 2.3% y/y in March. The global nickel market has been thrown into chaos after a flood of new supply from the world’s largest producer Indonesia, the result of huge Chinese investment & major technological breakthroughs. Mines across the world are at risk of closing, while others are asking for state bailouts or going broke. The scale of the collapse has left some in the industry questioning if there’s a future for most mines outside of Indonesia, while China’s dominance over the nation’s processing sector, has also raised concerns about the reliability of supply. U.S. economy added 175K jobs & the jobless rate ticked higher to 3.9% in April. After several hotter-than-expected jobs reports, April’s employment gains fell short of economists’ expectations of 240K new jobs & a 3.8% unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings rose +0.2% from the previous month & 3.9% from a year ago, below consensus estimates. The jobless rate tied for the highest level since Jan 2022. The rate that includes discouraged workers & those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also edged up, to +7.4%, highest level since November 2021. Labor force participation rate, was unchanged at 62.7%. Tesla, which had 140,473 employees globally as of end-2023, but job cuts continue. Elon Musk has dismissed 2 Tesla senior executives & plans to lay off 100’s more employees, frustrated by falling sales & the pace of job cuts so far. Rebecca Tinucci, senior director of the electric vehicle maker’s Supercharger business & Daniel Ho, head of the new vehicles program, will leave on Tuesday morning, it is being reported. Musk also plans to dismiss everyone working for Tinucci & Ho, including the roughly 500 employees who work in the Supercharger group.
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Another Bank Failure, Tesla Drops Prices (again), US economy weakening (Recap ep275)
04/29/2024
Another Bank Failure, Tesla Drops Prices (again), US economy weakening (Recap ep275)
In Today's recap, Marcello talks about the collapse of Republic First Bank as it served as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities within the financial sector. Tesla's shares surged by a remarkable 12.06%, propelling Nasdaq to its third consecutive day of gains. However, concerns loomed over the US economy as growth slowed to a sluggish 1.6% in the first quarter, the weakest pace since 2022. The median U.S. home sale price hit a record $383,725 in the 4 weeks ended April 21, up 5.2% from a year earlier. The median asking price increased 6.7% to $415,925. With 30-year mortgages now charging an average 7.1% interest rate & home prices continuing to climb, the median monthly housing cost has risen +13% to a record $2,843. With home listings still in short supply, nearly a third, 29.8% of homes, are selling above their listing price. Only 6% of sellers are dropping their asking price. Oil prices settled higher on Friday, garnering support from tensions in the Middle East, but a strong dollar & U.S. inflation data quashed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon, giving prices a ceiling. Supply concerns supported prices as tensions continue in the Middle East. Shares of U.S. based Chipotle Mexican Grill rose +6.33% on Thursday at $3,111.97 after the fast-casual burrito chain topped analysts’s Q1 estimates & reported a +7% rise in same-store sales, beating the +5.2% expected by StreetAccount. The stock is up +36.07% in 2024 & +50.51% year on year, with a market cap of $85.48B. Intel made waves with the recent launch of its third-generation AI accelerator, Gaudi 3. Boasting impressive advancements, the semiconductor giant claims that the latest chip is twice as power-efficient and offers a processing speed that outpaces NVIDIA’s H100 GPU, the current market leader in AI chip technology. Devastating tornadoes are tearing across parts of eastern Nebraska & Iowa on Friday, as a multiday severe thunderstorm event ramped up in the central United States.Storms began in parts of the Plains & South early Friday afternoon. The National Weather Service had received at least 42 reports of tornadoes as of 6:30 p.m. ET, in at least 3 states, including Texas, Nebraska & Iowa.The storm event is supposed to continue for 3 more days.
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