Global Macro Update

What’s really driving US and world events? What are the real motives for Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s actions? How will the latest crisis affect your personal life and investments? Global Macro Update with Mauldin Economics Publisher Ed D’Agostino is a deep dive into current macroeconomic world affairs—from black-swan events to the chess moves of global leaders and market makers. Every week, Ed interviews top experts in geopolitics, economics, finance, and industry to deliver their inside scoops straight to your doorstep.

Global Liquidity, Debt, and the Four Horsemen 03/27/2026

Global Liquidity, Debt, and the Four Horsemen Michael Howell of GL Indexes and Capital Wars joins Ed D’Agostino to explain how global liquidity is being drained by four converging forces—central bank tightening, surging oil, a rising dollar, and spiking bond volatility—just as a massive wall of COVID-era debt comes due for refinancing. He makes the case that the bull market is likely over, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is breaking down, and where investors should be looking. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40644235

The New “Hemispheric Doctrine” 03/13/2026

The New “Hemispheric Doctrine” Geopolitical strategist Jacob Shapiro breaks down the long-term implications of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Recorded in the middle of extraordinary oil price swings and a Strait of Hormuz disruption, the conversation moves beyond the daily headlines to explore what this conflict means for the Gulf states’ ambitions as global financial hubs, the vulnerability of critical energy chokepoints, and the accelerating shift toward a multipolar world. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40424395

Double the Return with Lower Volatility 03/06/2026

Double the Return with Lower Volatility Eric Fine, an emerging markets bond portfolio manager at VanEck, discusses how EM bonds currently yield roughly double what you get in developed markets at lower volatility. And yet, almost nobody owns them. He also unpacks how Middle East tensions are creating winners among oil exporters, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and what 13 years of outperformance says about where fixed income is heading. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40341590

Bonds Don’t Lie 02/27/2026

Bonds Don’t Lie Yields have every reason to go up—and they’re not. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro, joins Global Macro Update to explain what that signal means and why he’s more cautious on the economy than the current consensus. Neil was among the few against the 2022 recession narrative and was proven right. Now he’s watching the same four indicators, and the conclusion has flipped. Plus: tariffs, AI and the labor market, and a candid take on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40256650

Why Everyone Was Wrong About the Global Oil Glut 02/20/2026

Why Everyone Was Wrong About the Global Oil Glut Jan Stuart, one of the sharpest oil minds on Wall Street and global energy strategist at Piper Sandler, cuts through the headlines for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026. Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam? Jan answers all… and more. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40176135

Emerging Markets Are En Vogue 02/13/2026

Emerging Markets Are En Vogue Gavekal CEO Louis Gave is here this week to discuss emerging markets, China’s manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US. If you’re discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), this conversation is for you. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40102390

The GeoMacro Era Is Here 02/06/2026

The GeoMacro Era Is Here Marko Papic discusses the evolving landscape of GeoMacro analysis, emphasizing the integration of political and geopolitical factors into investment strategies. He highlights the rapid changes in market dynamics, the implications of dollar debasement, and the shifting focus of investors toward global opportunities, particularly in Europe. Papic also explores the structural reforms and economic potential within Europe, as well as the importance of defense spending in the current geopolitical climate. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/40021640

The Great Geopolitical Re-Anchoring 01/23/2026

The Great Geopolitical Re-Anchoring George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures discusses the shifting global order in this essential conversation. He explains why the world is “re-anchoring” away from the Cold War framework, how Russia’s failure in Ukraine has ended its status as a global power, and why the US-China relationship is now the defining geopolitical dynamic of our era. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39851920

FOMO Is Not an Investing Strategy 01/16/2026

FOMO Is Not an Investing Strategy Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders joins us to discuss why geopolitical events rarely move markets long-term, how AI investment themes are evolving, and why 74 stocks outperformed Nvidia in 2025. Plus, Sonders shares her jigsaw puzzle philosophy on investing and more. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39758910

The Real Risk from Taiwan 01/09/2026

The Real Risk from Taiwan “Even before a single missile or shot at Taiwan, the market will already react.” Ed sits down with Lyric Hughes Hale, editor-in-chief of EconVue, and Taiwan-based analyst Eric Huang to discuss a hidden vulnerability in global markets: Taiwanese insurance companies. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39672735

The Fully Invested Bear 12/11/2025

The Fully Invested Bear This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Hear about his market cycle clock—and why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39372960

The New VC Playbook 12/05/2025

The New VC Playbook Everyone worries AI will take their job. Steve Lord thinks we’ll hit a bigger wall first: power. Lord is COO of Burkland Associates, which works with Andreessen Horowitz and dozens of other top VC firms. Hear about the infrastructure bottleneck facing AI, what went wrong with crypto’s original promise, and Lord’s advice for founders trying to raise capital in today’s market. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39290010

The Mania Begins 11/26/2025

The Mania Begins CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell built his framework for tracking global liquidity while at Salomon Brothers. His central thesis: the ratio between debt and liquidity predicts financial crises and asset bubbles. Howell explains why the $350 trillion global debt pile requires $70 trillion in annual refinancing, how ZIRP created the “everything bubble,” and what happens when the bill comes due. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39181510

Will OpenAI be the Yahoo! of the AI Era? 11/21/2025

Will OpenAI be the Yahoo! of the AI Era? While the Fear and Greed Index just hit “Extreme Fear” territory, Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly says we’re in more of a rotation than a panic. Brent and I talk about the AI trade—why Meta’s earnings marked a shift, whether OpenAI's $500 billion valuation is defensible, and why 65% of respondents would short it. Plus, why Buffett just bet on Google. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39122585

Will the AI Bubble Squeeze the Middle Class? 11/14/2025

Will the AI Bubble Squeeze the Middle Class? Bruce Mehlman unpacks the government shutdown, the recent Democratic sweep, and the AI bubble. Then he pulls out his crystal ball for the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential predictions. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/39035225

We’re Back to 1997/98? 10/30/2025

We’re Back to 1997/98? Everyone is wondering if we’re in another tech bubble. There’s a mad rush to invest in AI, and tech companies are breaking valuation records, with Nvidia leading the charge. My friend Jared Dillian believes we’re back in 1997/98. Hear why on today’s episode. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/38849595

The Fatal Mistake Handing the AI Race to China 10/24/2025

The Fatal Mistake Handing the AI Race to China Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race, India’s potential as a tech superpower, and how drug cartels impact Mexico’s relationship with the US. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/38768435

Ed Yardeni: Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here 10/20/2025

Ed Yardeni: Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here There’s a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni’s predictions: he’s usually right. Today, Dr. Ed explains AI’s impact on the labor market, how boomers are propping up consumer spending, and what the Fed should do next. You’ll also hear his take on China, rising gold prices, and the Mag 7 by listening now. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/38644975

Why Your Landlord Is Getting RICH (And You're Not) 09/12/2025

Why Your Landlord Is Getting RICH (And You're Not) MBS Highway founder Barry Habib says mortgage rates could drop below 6%, warns about supply-demand imbalances, and unpacks emerging threats from AI job displacement that could impact homeownership and wealth creation. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/38194835

Large-Cap Growth Gives Way to Small-Cap Value 08/22/2025

Large-Cap Growth Gives Way to Small-Cap Value Large-cap growth has been on fire for 15 years, but that streak may finally be coming to a close. As Big Tech’s summer rally fizzles out, small-cap value stocks are showing signs of life. In this interview, Jared Dillian breaks down the concept of a “style-box rotation,” explaining why small-cap value may be poised for a powerful turnaround. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/37921165

Could Another Tariff Meltdown Lie Ahead? 07/25/2025

Could Another Tariff Meltdown Lie Ahead? “Anytime Trump says something, it is harmful to my positions.” For commodities trader Jared Dillian, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/37546240

A Regime Change for Global Trade 04/25/2025

A Regime Change for Global Trade The simultaneous sell-off of stocks, bonds, and US dollar is a big deal. Brent Donnelly from Spectra Markets explains how broken trust has left permanent scars on US trade policy: “Once an action has been taken, you can remove the action, but then there's still going to be some damage.” /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/36300845

Will the trade war become a currency crisis? 04/18/2025

Will the trade war become a currency crisis? All trade wars have a currency effect, but what happens when nations drive down their currencies to counter US tariffs? John Mauldin explains why he doesn’t believe China is using US treasuries as a weapon—and where the trade war will hurt most. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/36212635

Too Late for Portfolio Insurance? 04/11/2025

Too Late for Portfolio Insurance? There’s no substitute for experience. That was evident this week in the markets. While most people were confused or frozen, at least one investor (our old friend Jared) was making money after spending the past few months positioning himself for a week like this one. Part of his strategy involves using options, but not for speculation… /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/36087495

Private Equity: Too Big to Fail? 04/04/2025

Private Equity: Too Big to Fail? Private equity is buying up America—everything from nursing homes to the local plumbing business. Some are calling it a bubble, with the value of global private equity deals reaching $2 trillion in 2024. Brendan Ballou, author of the new book Plunder, says the real trouble with PE comes from weak regulations that incentivize bad decisions. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/36004635

Ukraine’s Playbook for Defeating Russia 03/28/2025

Ukraine’s Playbook for Defeating Russia Modern history is rife with examples of wars that grind on needlessly, only to end with no clear winner. There is a risk this will happen with Ukraine, though President Trump is eager to force a settlement. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic joins us to unpack what happens next. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/35890825

Inflation Is Over 03/14/2025

Inflation Is Over Inflation is dropping quickly, but you wouldn’t know it from the headlines. Danielle DiMartino Booth explains why, highlighting layoffs and other underreported recession signals. As she’s said before, “There is no greater drag on inflation than job loss.” /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/35676195

More Geopolitical Chess with George Friedman 03/12/2025

More Geopolitical Chess with George Friedman George is back! Over half a million people caught my last interview with George shortly after the US and Russia began settlement discussions about Ukraine. Today he responds to the animated comments that followed, explaining why Russia cannot wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the flurry of activity at the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/35653795

Deflationary Tariffs? 03/07/2025

Deflationary Tariffs? Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian is here to talk deflationary tariffs, troubling signs from the housing market, the rising risk of a recession, and why he’s “super bullish on bonds.” /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/35564625

It’s Bird Flu Season 02/28/2025

It’s Bird Flu Season In the US, 10% of commercial egg-laying hens have died from the bird flu in the last eight weeks. Egg prices are set to soar another 41% this year. Are we in for another pandemic? Cumberland Advisors co-founder David Kotok discusses the economic domino effects of pandemics across history. /episode/index/show/fda6c871-9dbb-460b-a1d2-e4368377914c/id/35480665

Global Macro Update

TOPICS